When you are starting with nothing you need to have a lot of great drafts to get enough solid prospects to build team. When you are a championship team you have the time to develop a few great players from less obvious prospects. We will not be seeing any first pick in the first round prospects anytime soon but understanding that and bringing in players who can become great can keep us in the game. All those high draft picks we started out with are getting older and more expensive every day. The point of diminishing return comes sooner or later on all of them and the time to let them go is just as important to recognize as finding them in the first place. Player development is the key to remaining a championship team.
But you have yourself in a tizzy is what I’m telling you. It isn’t risky to play it out for half a season predicting because it isn’t costly to go get a platoon bat in a walk year. Fundamentally, you could say it’s risky to go sign a FA right now because it is an opportunity cost to seeing what you have on the farm. look- I have said all the way through I’d like a platoon bat for Meyers in the off season but I’m not going to make a big deal over it- because its really not a big deal- if you believe- like me- that the Astros are going to be really good and the regular season isn’t about making the playoffs but rather preparing for them. now- if we end up in a dogfight down the stretch and we lost some games early because of that lack of a bat then I was wrong… but the price isn’t gonna be high and it’s not very risky. Deep breath, it will be ok. I say that not condescendingly because I agree with your premise. Just saying you are about 80% too invested/worried about it
I hope it's a one-year deal, or a two-year deal if an opt out, so we can sign him next year after Bregman walks because he's not worth $30M and definitely not for 10 years. Bregman likely has 3-4 more productive seasons left in the tank.
All those guys will leave and that will suck. But maybe not all of them leave. And we likely spend some money to replace them. We have superstars locked in for a good bet in Yordan and Hader. I expect Altuve to be a star for a while. Abreu is a star. Javier and Brown have potential all star stuff and we have seen them dominate in stretches in the postseason. Yainer Diaz probably settles somewhere between star and superstar. Abreu they should get a deal done with next year to keep him through 28 and he’s a star level guy. That’s a playoff team right there through 2028c provided your developmental guys can surround those stars with league average players from the farm. JP France looks league average. I bet Spencer Serengeti ends up the same way. We can sign a MOR guy going into 26 with Frambers salary if we need to (I still think Whitley could break out). We have a bunch of Ofers. I bet some are playable. We even have some guys in Dominican and complex league that people have some wishing on them potential- we might have a Framber level superstar somewhere in the system. I want us to dominate. I would pay big money to be able to be the Astros GM and push at being aggressive at this time- I think there’s stuff that could be done that would improve our org. But- if the development and draft guys are good that’s the safest and best course of action- to let them do their job.
The idea that Bregman at 29 has "3-4 productive seasons left" when we just signed 33-year-old Altuve for 5 more, is silly. He's unlikely to be highly productive through 10 more seasons, but 6-8 is likely. Gaetti was All Star caliber at 36, Ventura at 35, for two reasonable comps.
Boras might be asking for 10/300 for Bregman but predicting someone is going to go for that is kind of far fetched. I doubt he gets more than 7 years from anybody except the Yankees or Dodgers, but that is going to be a possibility forever and if we ever start getting into bidding wars with them we are cooked as an organization. The Astros were correct on letting Correa and Springer walk and if bregman’s contract is crazy stupid they will be right to let him walk as well. Same with Tucker.
My point was that I don't think there's a chance in hell anyone offers Breggy 10 years if Chapman only gets 4-5 years. San Diego's owner dying and Steve Cohen backpaddling Mets strategy leads me to believe there will be less 10+ year deals being offered. Breggy is slightly better than Chapman overall and will get more money but not much more. Both share Boras as their agent. Let's say Chapman gets 5 years $120M and signs with the Giants sometime during Spring Training. Breggy turns in another year performing on par with his last 3 years around .800 OPS, 20 HRs, 90 RBI. Maybe another team offers him 6 years $150M which would make it more likely we could keep him around at that pricepoint We'll see.
$250M/7yrs is a very reasonable expectation for Bregman in free agency if he has a decent season by his standards. An mvp caliber season probably makes $300M very possible.
Not to be playoff contenders, but I get your point. It’s not unreasonable to think we get at least one by then.
He likely wouldn't play anywhere near that many games actually. If you put him out there on a dialy basis, and in some of those large fields, he likely would spend at least 60 games on the IL, probably more
Bregman has been significantly better offensively than Chapman though. 7 of his 8 years he has had an OPS over 800. Because he was so good in 2019 (most offensive players in baseball were better than their norm that year) most fans are a bit down on him because that's the comparison. Chapman has been well short of Bregman offensively for the past 3 years. I would guess that Bregman will get significantly more money than Chapman
I agree with everything here except Springer having a legitimate beef The Astros simply did what the CBA allowed. The CBA that the owners AND players agreed to. Certainly he didn't like it, and he had every right to bail out. But it certainly wasn't the Astros being dirty on him or anything like that. The Astros made a smart decision based on the rules that were in force at the time. Love George, but it sure has worked out MUCH better for the Astros than it has for George on the field
We'll see if it's "lucky". If they do nothing else to improve this team leading to playoff failures due to lack of firepower then the team ceases to be a contender shortly afterwards, we'll probably wish they had paid a little extra to put this team over the top and win another championship.
8/225 would be my sort of top number if I was the Astros. I guess I might go 10/250 and figure the last 2 years any thing you get is a bonus. If someone wants to do more than that shake his hand and say thanks for the memories.
