There is the difference though The Astros Management isn't looking at this as a window closing soon situation. We only lose Bregman after this year (assuming he is gone) so obviously we are still loaded, and potentially better than ever if Lance and Garcia are both back full on in 25. Even if not we are likely the AL favorites again in 25 Then i'm sure management looks at a core of Yordan, Altuve, Yainer, Pena, Javier, Brown, Garcia, Lance, Hader, Abreu as a core than is going to have a chance, especially since there would be a good chunk of money available to spend at that point if all the other guys are indeed gone then Now if by saying the "window closes" you mean we will no longer be the odds on favorite, then yea I would agree. In baseball though, being a legit playoff contender keeps the window open, as Astros fans we should know that well as we have seen it up close and personal a couple of times already
Even if he does take a one year deal, why would JDM come here where he knows he will mostly sit with Yordan our main DH and knowing that we plan on Diaz being there some also. I mean maybe if he knew it was his last year and he only wanted a chance to win it all, but I doubt that's where he's at I keep hearing everyone want Bellinger, but damn a multi year deal to him could have disastrous results. Dude was very good last year in a contract year, but he was absolute dog crap for two years prior. If he were looking for a 1 or 2 year deal then yea, let's Fkn go. But a long term contract to anyone with that track record, no way. Not unless you are the Mets or Dodgers and money means absolutely nothing to you
Chapman is a consistent 750 ish OPS guy. Unless he wanted to sign fairly cheap (he doesn't) I would rather not give a slap in the face to Alex while we are trying to win a title this year
Exactly. This is what people keep missing (especially simpletons like the person you responded to). Baseball is high variance - much, much more so than basketball. Before last year, what intelligent person was talking about the Rangers “window” being open or closed? Start with a good core of 5-6 good position players, 3-4 good starters and 1-3 top relievers, including 2-4 all star level players among them. Add a few key pieces via FA or trade. Make the playoffs. Hope things bounce your way. That is the formula in baseball, unlike basketball, which is: have an MVP candidate, add 1-2 all-stars, add 4-5 very solid vets, gel for a year or two. B-ball has a window based on the MVP’s age and the “gelling” period, where baseball doesn’t because it doesn’t depend on a few specific players. The Astros will still have a good core after ‘25 even if all of our FAs leave. If Crane will spend to shore up the gaps - and he has said he will - they will still have a chance.
You don’t need to pick up an 800 ops bat though at the deadline. You need to pick up a LHH that hits 800 OPS in his platoon role for virtually nothing. You can get those guys in their walk year (especially if they play shitty defense in the Of- which is fine bc you can have Yordan play Lf during the playoffs) for very very little. Joc Peterson got traded on his walk year for the Braves 15th overall prospect. Duvall and Soler each got one prospect for a guy not even in their org top 20 that didn’t break out. Last year Pham got traded for a guy that wasn’t in the diamondbacks top 30 prospects. Yes- you can get these guys for virtually nothing at the deadline. Every damn year. Just like you can get the 5th best guy in your bullpen for almost nothing which is what the Astros will be trading for at the deadline if internal guys can’t hold down that spot.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...eason-awards-free-agent-signings/72551453007/ – The Houston Astros plan to make All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman a contract offers before he hits free agency, but it’s not expected to come close to the $300 million over 10 years it likely will take to keep him. No Astros player has ever received a contract longer than six years or more than $150 million. – You think people in Houston haven’t noticed the Astros’ aggressiveness this winter signing closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract while keeping Altuve with another $125 million? The Astros have already sold a franchise-record 22,000 season tickets. In Crane’s first year as an owner in 2012, they averaged 19,849 fans a game.
It's crazy that Chapman still remains unsigned. I am eagerly awaiting how much and how long he signs for. It should be a good measuring stick for what Bregman could realistically get on the open market. The Machado and Bogaerts deals should be out of the realm of possibility.
Saying "hey, you can always bid for a lesser option at the trade deadline if the hopes and prayers don't work out" isn't IMO a solid option, it's really just a justification for not spending to give the team the best chance at winning. You write the check and you get a better player, you give up nothing, AND you know you got the player. If you gamble at the trade deadline, you could end up failing to even land the lesser option and be stuck with the hopes and prayers route. I'm not saying the route of just hoping internal guys get a lot better out of nowhere can't work, it's just very risky and I'd rather go a safer route with the last season the Astros are likely to be favorites. Get me that last ring, then go the cost effective route as most of the top tier talent leave to get the big bucks and the long contracts that the Astros are unwilling (wisely IMO) to offer. The transition from a dynasty powerhouse to being merely a good team is likely to happen no matter what the FO says. The reason the Astros run ended up being so long is because they had a seemingly endless amount of top tier talent in their farm system when it all started....that's how they managed to lose so many players and keep a "next man up" attitude, but they can't keep that up forever. At this point, there's not another Bregman or Yordan to call up. We know the Astros aren't going to commit the long term cash it takes to get top tier guys in FA, so that means when the pipeline runs dry, they'll have 2 options, accepting mediocrity or tanking to refill the system with prospects. My guess is they'll take the former as Altuve plays out the final years of his contract, then they'll tank to restock the farm for another run down the line.
People forget we were up 3-1 in the ALCS. The Astros are operating with the same philosophy that they have used to make us World Series contenders for a decade. Even if we lose Tucker, Bregman, Verlander, and Valdez we will have a solid core to build on. There will be no tanking this decade.
That's the problem. They are operating with the same philosophy, but they are no longer operating with the talent in the farm system that allowed for that philosophy to work. You can lose Springer when you have Tucker coming up. You can lose Cole when you have Framber coming up. You can lose Correa when you have Pena....sort of. At some point, you just won't have that quality of guys to come be replacements. I think that time is pretty much here so it requires different philosophy.
How do you know we don’t have some up and coming stars in the minors? Also we don’t need them until 26. There is plenty of time for the best development staff in MLB to work their magic. Crane doesn’t have the resources to gamble on the Stanton’s and bellingers of the world. A bad signing like that would set the Astros back for years. Most of the guys you want are not available on short deals. JDM can only DH a position we currently have better batters to cover. We need a LHH that can play LF and even that is arguable and certainly not worth taking a gamble on. Our current lineup is still one of the strongest if not the strongest in the AL. I trust the Astros front office more than any in all of baseball and way more than panicking fans.
You're getting into faith based logic at this point, and I just can't go there. Are the Astros still favorites or near favorites? Yes, but for how much longer? They'll be losing Tucker, Bregman, Verlander, Pressly, Framber most likely.....all within the next few years and they don't have people to replace them from within without some miracles happening. They aren't a team that will give the long term contracts that top tier talent demand, so they'll be going bargain basement shopping to try to fill those holes.....and that is unlikely to lead anywhere good. All I'm saying is that I want to maximize the chances the Astros win a championship in the final year or two of this run before it comes crashing down....and it will. It's inevitable.
I understand that Machado and Bogaerts deals are outliers and the very definition of what Crane has said he wants to stay away from - but they are reality. MLB players don't tell an organization "I know those deals are whack. Let's forget about them." There was a legitimate reason the Astros let every star FA walk w/o making a competitive offer up until now. Keuchel - system guy who was terrible before Luhnow and after leaving. Morton - wanted to "play close to home or nowhere" and "the young pitching is on the way" Cole - Mercenary who specifically wanted to play in NY and get a record contract. No loyalty at all so would have needed a huge overpay. Springer - Wanted to play close to home and had a (legitimate) beef against the organization. And Tucker and Yordan had stepped up lessening the impact. Correa- wanted to stay but not at a discount. The Astros had his medicals and Pena so the motivation to bring him back paled in comparison to other teams' to sign him. None of those things apply to Bregman. He wants to stay, and likely is willing to sign for less than some desperate owner is willing to throw at him, even if it's not a Jose Ramirez crazy cheap deal. Unless Dezenzo is Pena 2.0, and I don't know how they can be convinced of that in 122 total minor league games over 1 1/2 seasons (Pena had been in the system twice as long before taking over for Correa and special defense gave him much higher floor) then Alex leaving could result in a huge drop in 3B production. I'm not saying give him a Machado or Bogaerts type deal but it must (and should) be the largest in team history. I also think it can be done creatively with options and incentives to keep the team risk reasonable while maximizing the opportunity for the player.
