I get that Bellinger checks some boxes (LH, can play center, etc.), but I can’t for the life of me understand why Astros fans want to pay him (of all players) the 200m+ he is going to demand to play here. Even putting aside him publicly trashing the Astros and promoting fake news against the Altuve and the same…he cratered two years ago and was not even playable. Yes he had a bounce back year in 2022, but I do not want him and certainly not for what he’s going to require. On a similar note, I suppose the league-wide concern with Snell is his inability to go past 6 innings, mileage, and age…so maybe we don’t sign him. Could be a Keuchel 2.0 situation..?
Tier 1 (3.5+ projected WAR): Robert Tier 2 (2.5-3.4): Happ, Jones, Lowe, Outman Tier 3 (2.0-2.4): Nootbaar, Suwinsku, Yelich Tier 4 (1.0-1.9): Benson,Castro,Duran,Fraley, Marsh *projected WAR is the average of the 5 projections listed in Fangraphs. I bumped Lowe up to 2.5 from 2.4 because I think it was too low and it's my post, lol. Projected WAR ×years of control Tier 1:Robert 15.6, Jones 14.0, Outman 13.5 Tier 2: Lowe 12 4, Yelich 12.0, Suwinski 11.0 Tier 3: Nootbaar 9.6, Happ 8.7, Duran 7.5, Marsh 6.8, Benson 6.0 Tier 4: Fraley 3.0, Castro 2.4
Astro fans don't want to pay him. They just want him on the team. Money is Crane and Brown's problem. There are some very knowledgeable fans on here (and I like to mingle with them) but there are also some that pay attention to just superficial areas of the team and roster
The answer is both of them have absolute star quality which plays in the playoffs potentially (or is more likely than not having that quality) and we don’t need either of them to accomplish our regular season goals.
I heard today from someone that would know… the Astros AGAIN talked to the Miami Marlins about Jake Burger. This is like the 3rd-4th time that the Astros have been linked to him. They wanted him in discussed Cease deals, they tried to get him before Marlins got him and now this off season they have asked about him twice. Why? Would be be a long term 1st base or 3rd base solution? Do they just want him to get all the at bats Abreu and Bregman etc. leave available?
As an aside I saw he hit 34 HR last year and only finished with 80 RBI OH MY GOD SOMEBODY GET ON BASE!!
How big of a downgrade would Jake burger be on defense at third? I thought he was kind of a dh type dude.
He isn’t Chapman or Arenado out there… and he isn’t as good as Bregman either. When he came up a few years ago he was a neutral fielder and last year was below average but probably can be average if he focuses on it. I guess an 800 OPS with power and slightly below average defense at 8-10 million a year trumps paying Bregman 30 million for a near decade. Asset management. You let Bregman walk, get a draft pick. Trade assets for Burger and save 20+ million a year to put towards Tucker or another free agent? I just know that Chapman and now Burger are players the Astros have shown interest in.
I think that's exactly right, the Astros have to consider letting Bregman walk, he's going to want to get paid as if he produces like 2019 Bregman and he hasn't been anywhere near that since then. He's still a plus player for sure, but you don't keep a dynasty going paying guys who are merely plus players superstar money when they are on the wrong side of 30. I'm not saying it's a given, but if you could get 3 fWAR out of Burger for something like 1 mil a year and you were only going to get 4 fWAR out of Bregman for 30+ mil a year.....I think you do that in a heartbeat. Now maybe Burger's projection of 3 fWAR is a bit high, and Bregman's fWAR at 4 would be a bit low.....but I don't think those are THAT far off. I just think there are more important people to spend on than Bregman and I think he's fairly likely to want a deal somewhere else. The Astros have to have a plan for that.
Some fans don't understand the economics. It is THEY, not the owners, who eventually pay the outrageous contracts.
I'm not sure which group I belong in. I did post the Greinke Acquisition proposal on an old board about a month before it happened, so though outside the box, they are not always as impossible as they first seem. Trade McCullers for Trout and $51.5M. Both players are great when healthy and not so much when injured. The money, much like the Mets sending money with Verlander, reduces the Cap to a manageable situation. In this case, it brings down the cost for Trout to ~$ 30M for 7 seasons. This number is close ti the estimayed cost of Bellinger and promises to be better vs RHs, even though he swings from the right side. Pick up JD Martiez in FA to DH on a short term contract. ~$15M/yr. The best news is immediate because his history actually fits the profile of a stated objective. He hits RHs better than LHs (though not a slouch vs LHs). for 2024 2B Altuve CF Trout LF Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker 3B Bregman C Diaz DH Martinez SS Pena This would be a modern day murderer's row.
Lets add Snell as a top of the rotation pitcher too. Maybe get Luis Robert Jr. OF somehow with Cease andother Top of the rotation pitcher from cws. Then I day we would have some depth to keep er rolling and keep players fresh.
It sounds like you have given up on McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy, Brown, France and possibly Valdez.
No. Not at all. Mccullers Luis are going to be 2 of my favorites when they return. France Urquidy Gordon Arrighetti also. Maybe trade Urquidy for some prospects to reload the farms? Framber JV Javier hops in the sand gonna take us to the promised lands. Be a hog is my theory get em all! We will have 16 all stars this year will be a record! ☺️ ☺️ ☺️
Hard to believe pitchers report in a week and there are still 5 difference makers and 2 dozen or so viable MLBers sitting on the market. At this point I suspect Snell and Montgomery are expecting a ST injury to open a team’s checkbook. But I can’t imagine what’s holding up Bellinger Chapman and Soler. Upgrades over Singleton or Kessinger: Chapman, Bellinger, Soler, Turner, Urshela, Belt, Kemp, Pham, Votto, Ford Upgrades over Bielak/Coleman/Whitley/Sousa: Snell, Montgomery, Ryu, German, Lorenzen, Velasquez, Boyd, Middleton, Maton, Alexander, Cisnero, Peralta, Hand, Nelson
Obviously some of those guys would bump other guys down, but the end result on the 26 man roster would be Kessinger or Singleton on the position player side and whoever the 13th pitcher is.
