Amen Thompson isn't Magic Johnson - but yes, the reality is that if Magic were to receive the fountain of youth and appear in the league right now - he would still dominate because of his size, court vision, ability to run, post up and pass. There is a version of that which could work for Amen Thompson. I look at Ja Morant as an example of someone that was not a great three point shooter but still makes a large difference. People forget that not everyone we assume shoots threes well did when they entered the league and some guys still don't shoot well. For as great as Doncic is, he was a poor three point shooter the first few years in the league. Same with Pascal Siakam, De'Aaron Fox, Jerami Grant, and many others. Hell, some guys like Siakam and Wagner still aren't even average three point shooters. No - I don't expect Amen Thompson to improve as much as someone like Grant, but he doesn't have to. If he can become a catch and shoot three point shooter, that is more than enough - and even if he cannot, if he can hit mid range shots at close to 45-50%, he will be on the floor 35 minutes a night.
This is the problem with Moneyball. Other teams aren't stupid. Spamming 3 point shots doesn't work like it use to because the rest of the league realized they were not close to optimal in the number of 3PAs, rim attempts, and FTAs. In other words, spamming 3 point attempts could make up for some talent discrepancy in the past. Now, it is almost a must that players can get efficient shots (whether at the 3, at the rim, or at the line...or be a freak that can rise up over defenders in the mid range) instead of a huge bonus. It is going to take a lot of talent/size going forward to be able to have 2 non-shooters on the court at the same time. Teams getting smarter about efficiency is part of why it is getting harder for young teams to compete. OKC has adapted some from what I hear, but the Rockets absolutely created havoc for the Thunder offense because they had one non-shooter on the court. The Thunder just could not quit Giddey.
I'm not worried about Sengun's range because he's already proven to be an offensive weapon worth building around regardless whether his range improves. The bar for spacing is much lower for big men than for guards. Giannis, AD, and Bam have shown that big men that have trouble spacing the floor can still be part of teams that go deep in the playoffs. Guards that can't shoot have a tougher time of it because it's not as easy to put them in the dunker's spot. For instance, Westbrook was straight up unplayable next to any other ballhandler or non-shooter, even when surrounded by three point shooters in Houston. It is so much more vital for Amen to learn to shoot than it for Sengun. Sengun improving is not enough. Embiid was a decent shooter in Simmons' last year in Philly and it still wasn't enough to hide what a huge liability the latter was on the offense. Adjusting for Simmons' lack of range detracted from both of their strengths, Embiid's post game and Simmons' playmaking ability.
Or the prime example--not that I'm saying Amen is comparable to him--LeBron came into the league as a sub-30% three point shooter but still made a major impact on winning even as a rookie.
Because fans want wins now and middle-aged and older fans generally aren't used to players under the age of 21-22 getting any kind of major roles on a basketball team unless they truly were very good-to-elite. Most of the kids coming into the NBA haven't had to experience professional-level basketball and you now have some of the best potential taking routes away from college at 18 or 19 to get to the NBA as fast as possible. Enter the "not quite ready rookie". They used to hold 22 year old college kids with 3 to 4-years of college experience on the bench. Imagine what it's like trying to incorporate some of these kids coming into the league now at 18-20 who rely on athleticism and and-1 skills to dominate high school.
I agree with your premise - but I disagree with your conclusion to the extent that going forward it will take a lot to have two non-shooters on the court at the same time. Progressive teams for the last handful of years have been working on that riddle, and I think it is easier to do it now than 3-4 years ago. We are seeing teams try new things, and work out of necessity because not everyone can have 5 shooters on the floor. The Thunder are a team that is very much match up driven - they are very long, and pass well and believe that will make up for some shooting deficiencies. The playoffs will tell us a lot about how successful the Thunder will be - I have believed over the last 4-5 years that playoff success has shifted more to match ups than ever before.
The importance of Sengun developing range is that it gives leeway for a player like Amen if he does not develop into an adequate three point shooter. When you can run 4 players that can shoot onto the court, that helps with line ups, etc. The problem with Westbrook was more complicated. The Rockets could not defend with Westbrook, they had too many players that wanted to get into the middle of the lane, and they had no one other than Harden that could really put the ball on the floor and create by that point.
There are many many players who have improved both 3pt shooting and FT shooting throughout their careers. Catch-and-shoot 3s and FTs are both skills that you essentially do alone, and so can get better with raw practice and discipline. Baseball hitting is a competitive activity, and the reason bad hitters rarely get a lot better is because the pitching is also getting better. Amen seems to have a good mental makeup and so has the potential to improve. The ones who fail to improve tend to be the headcases (Simmons, Dwight).
In regular rotational minutes, you're not winning with 2 non-shooters on the floor. It's already hard enough to win consistently with 1 non shooter who plays regular minutes which you don't see much of anymore in the modern era
Is it just me or has this dude been losing weight non stop since he got sick? Looks like he's losing muscle.
I would add Sengün not just adding range but to add volume + range because without volume Sengün is not drawing enough attention on the perimeter.
Ways to win title... Have 4 3pt shooters Have a top 8 player (Top 3 preferable) Be incredibly huge Have a huge talent advantage Have a defense capable of overcoming the above Teams can work on that riddle all they want. It is just so much easier to win with a team has a Top 3 player, have at least 4 shooters starting, and are big and talented.
Sengun developing range is a luxury not a necessity. It gives leeway for Amen to be a poor shooter but it might not be enough. That's why I brought up the Embiid/Simmons example. Embiid can shoot from deep, but that did not fix the problems of the offensive fit with Simmons. For now, it is far more important for Amen to develop range to play next to Sengun rather than vice versa. Again, no one expects Giannis, Bam, or AD to space the floor for others at all. They are big men who can finish around the hoop at an elite level, among other skills. Now imagine Amen was a rookie on their teams. Would anyone in Milwaukee, Miami, or LA ever say the sentences below? All I did was swap out Sengun's name.
There’s a reason he’s not a starter and likely never will be….he can’t shoot. Yes, everything else is good with the guy, but shooting is what separates the stars from the bench players. We should’ve done what I originally said and drafted Cam at 4, but for once in eternity the Rockets got lucky and Cam was unbelievably available at 20. Neither of the overhyped Thompson twins should’ve gone in the top 20 picks in my opinion and that’s what I stated many times on this board prior to the draft.
You stated we should take cam at 4 even though he was available at 20, and would be available at 20 today if we redid the draft? Why is that good? How does that help your credibility in any way?
I don’t think so. You rarely see teams play with more than 1 non floor spacer now in extended minutes. It isn’t easier. It’s a huge hole already with 1 and is exposed in the end. That’s why westbrick can’t play with the clips and he had to go to the bench and barely plays now. Same reason he couldn’t work with capela and any other big who can’t shoot
