Still hard to parse Dana Brown’s comments but it seems like Houston might be done making moves this offseason. https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/looking-ahead-at-competition-for-astros-bullpen I am becoming cautiously optimistic about Forrest Whitley being a bullpen weapon this season along with Coleman.
I do a lot of reading and a lot of listening but I also use my brain. Maybe the reports of the system being drained of talent ARE overblown maybe its part of the Houston hate and bias. But my eyes and brain tell me that the guys in the upper levels of the system (before 2022 draft) and recently brought up are simply not the same caliber of player. J.P. France may have come up and pitched well, saved the rotation in fact, last year but he will never be mistaken for Javier. Grae Kessinger is not Jeremy Pena and Corey Julks is not Chas McCormick. I am excited for the 2022 and 2023 draftees and guy's in the lower levels, but Sugar Land in 2023 had very little talent and it shows in what the 2023 and 2024 roster could look like.
I could not agree more about the Sugar Land roster but I expect most of them to be gone by this season along with some AA dead weight. I have said before and reiterate here that the 21 draft will shine this season, and that it only gets better from there. There are currently 38 players expected to fit on a AAA team with a 28 man roster limit and Brown is signing more every couple of days. The cuts will have to be brutal and not a minute too soon.
I do need to agree and correct myself there. While I still think my premise of too many players at the upper levels have very low ceilings, I must acknowledge that there are several 2021 draftees that at least have brought their floor up. Guys like Loperfido, Wagner, Hamilton, Arrighetti, Gordon, and Kouba may never be stars or even 5 year starters in this league, but it is pretty clear that they will make it there and have lots of chances.
Outside of C, where Salazar profiles as a fine 3rd/AAAA catcher, I see a Sugar Land lineup full of guys with everyday-caliber potential: 1B Loperfido 2B Leon SS Whitcomb 3B Wagner RF Julks CF Hamilton LF Dirden DH Hensley There’s varying degrees of floor and probability mixed in there, but it’s a deep roster and I will be surprised if that list doesn’t include at least one player who ends up posting multiple 2+ fwar seasons in the majors. On the pitching side, I do think the front office recognized the lack of ceiling there and has corrected course bringing in 4 very high ceiling castoffs from other teams so far this offseason (Ortega, Marquez, Suero, Coleman) who will replace low ceiling guys like Austin Hansen and Jimmy Endersby. I will also add that while I’m probably higher on the AAA roster’s outlook, I think the Corpus roster will look very weak to open next season, specifically in the middle infield and pitching staff. I am hopeful that’ll get fixed over the course of next season between another draft and a year of player development/promotion.
Everything in moderation and is context driven. Keeping players like Bergman and Tucker and Verlander - rather than trade them - is a good idea if you will be fielding an extra year or two of an elite team, and that is what the Astros are doing. The Astros are realistically not going to compete for a title in 2026 or 2027. It is very unlikely based on where their farm system is, and even if they dealt Tucker and Bregman, it is unlikely the return would fill the holes as well. The Astros are rebuilding their farm system regardless - they are paying their scouts and scouting people on par with the Dodgers and Mets now and they have some very accomplished people.
The Astros farm system is not the worst in baseball, and when it is all said and done, I expect this groups big league output to be in the middle for the players in AA/AAA. However, this is the worst that the farm system has been in awhile. There are players that may prove to be long term big leaguers, but it is really short on high impact players. The issue is just the reality right now, and it is what has limited us this Winter from being more competitive for players like Glasnow and others. Most of the long term value of this system is likely in the lower minor leagues. I do expect the system to be different than in the past, as Brown is more willing to take chances for high level talent than the Astros traditionally have. We saw that last year when we drafted several boom or bust prospects at the top of the draft that Gross and Putila would not have likely taken.
This is how it always is - they are done unless Crane decides that they are not done. He will make an exception for the right player and the right deal. Ideally the Astros would sign at least one more pen arm (and they may), but Brown is taking an approach a lot of teams do, throw a bunch of high octane relievers against the wall and see what happens.
This is very reasonable take. But look at the haul the Padres just got for Soto. Now I understand he is a generational player and neither Bregman nor Tucker are on that level. But both those guys are proven all-stars and would bring back a very good return based on the current market. In 2025 the entire team should return except Bregman and Graveman. Even Altuve is very likely back. 2026 is more tricky but Diaz, Altuve, Pena, McCormick, Meyers, Yordan, Javier, Brown, McCullers, L.Garcia, and B.Abreu still forms a solid foundation. How solid will be determined by how those players progress and get healthy along with what Prospects develop in the next 2 seasons. Best case: at least 1 current position prospect steps up like McCormick or Diaz did and becomes a 3 WAR player. McCullers and Garcia stay healthy between now and then. Javier and Brown pitch to their potential. 2-3 pitching prospects turn into legitimate and consistent MLB performers even if it's at mid to back of bullpen. Worst case: Altuve gets old and nobody in the system steps up to replace those leaving and the team falls to a 75-85 win team that can't make the playoffs. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the Astros stink in 2026, but adding 2-3 high end pieces in a deal for one of Bregman or Tucker could keep the team atop the AL AND there will still be a deep enough lineup to compete if the creature includes MLB ready players who can step in, even if they are a step down.
On Soto, I agree the Padres did well as they possibly filled two long term rotation holes - but that deal was in part a result of the Yankees GM having a lot of pressure to so something. In 2026, the Astros are not going to bottom out unless they decide to trade a number of those players under contract on the roster. However, I don't think they will be good enough to win a World Series.
We're the 2019 Nationals or 2021 Braves fans Acuna good enough to win the World Series? We're the 2023 Diamondbacks good enough to make it to the World Series?
The Astros will likely be weaker in 2026-2027, but will likely be comparable to the Rangers in 23, Phillies in 22, and Braves in 21 in terms of talent/ regular season wins.
Stupid question(s) alert: is Yamamoto the real deal? What’s his MLB comp and what type of deal is he looking at? Seems like everyone is on him. I know it won’t happen but would love for Crane to shock the world and ink him.
Hard to say if he's the real deal until he gets here, but Darvish is the comparison I hear in regards to how good he was in Japan.
You seem to be arguing both sides here. On hand, you're pointing out that you don't need to be great to have a chance at the WS. But you're also saying that without getting assets for Tucker/Bregman, the Astros have no chance to compete at all down the line.
It would be really weird for the Astros to panic and sell off stars like Tucker and Bregman who have helped us win titles. I don't think that benefits our ownership, our new manager, or our basically new GM. I don't think it's the best way to compete in the near term, and the fans would hate it, hurting ticket sales. The rare lose, lose, lose, lose, lose scenario.
I cannot say if he will be the real deal, but my guess is 'oh yeah'. What I do know is that his accomplishments in the Japanese League makes Ohtani look like a back of the rotation starter by comparison. I join you in hoping that Crane steps up, but based on the current gossip, it is going to be close to a 10 year contract, so I do not think it will even be a consideration
I can see how I confused you My point is that If you can get into the playoffs you have a chance. Even without Tucker or Bregman the 2024 and 2025 team has lots of talent. The 2026 team as currently projected will have enough talent to possibly get into the playoffs. The 2026 team with the haul from a Bregman or Tucker trade will almost certainly have enough talent to get in. And FTR even if one of them was traded today, the 2024 team would have enough talent to get into the playoffs.
Who throws 96 mph fastball and a 90 mph splitter that drops over 20 inches and has very good command.
