last time this team was in arlington, Kyle Tucker was playing for player of the month award. Let's see if he can remember how to play like that.
LOL. Where did that amount come from? Yordan got 116 million for 6 years, and Tucker isn't as good as Yordan. That goes triple for these playoff games. Dude is batting .091 in the playoffs, when it matters most.
I'm not sure how closely you follow the crazy contracts, but Tucker is definitely getting near or above $300 million. This is the way.
There's a difference between buying out arbitration and signing a clean deal. Yordan's contract bought out arbitration and then he's getting paid 26 or so per for three years. It's a long way to after the 2025 season. Tucker will get money in arbitration. Once he's out of arbitration years, he'll be making north of 30mil a year - the only question is where and for how long. Tucker plays more games and is better in the field. He will make more than Yordan in his first three years after arbitration. He will likely make more during his arbitration years too. Add in inflation for a few years and this 30 mil number everyone hovers around will go up . . . 30 will look like a bargain in a few years. Yordan's contract is simply amazing and a bad comparision for Tucker. You want to look at what Tucker will make . . . start looking at guys like Mookie, Freddie, Bryce for a better comparison. Are they an over reach, yes . . . but those are the comparisons in today's money that agents and clubs will be making. Not to a fantastic deal for a player that primarily is looked at as a DH.
Excellent points and if I am being honest, I wish the Astros would throw in some bonuses to Yordan, that contract is so club friendly.....BUT, he wanted the $$ up front and the Astros took a chance, and the dude is a complete monster. If he were on the open market he would command so much more.
So true. Give him a bonus. The dude's been slamming homers left and right in the playoffs. It's not his fault the guys ahead of him aren't on base half the time. I mean has anyone ever hit more homers in 6 games than anyone else on his team even got hits?
No. The very reason no extension has gotten done before now is because the price has been this high for at least 2 years. Tucker will get much more than Yordan for many reasons- he is closer to free agency, and his starting salary is much more (2nd yr of arbitration), Tucker is a more well rounded player with more defensive and baserunning value, Tucker plays everyday w/o injury concerns, Tucker's body type tends to age better. Tucker WILL get $300M if he wants it. I did breakdown of likely WAR based on a few aging models ( including some posted in Fangraphs and Bill James studies). I will put them in a separate post.
2023 is Tucker's age 26 season. The average of his fWAR and bWAR over the past 3 years is 5.13 Expected aging is: Peak thtough age 28. 10% drop from ages 29-31 10% drop from ages 32-34 10% drop from ages 35-36 20% drop from ages 37-39 This gives Tucker an expected WAR of: 27: 5.1 28: 5.1 29: 5.0 30: 4.8 31: 4.6 32: 4 3 33: 4.0 34: 3.6 35: 3.1 36: 2.6 37: 1.9 38: 1.3 39: 0.6 Let's say that teams want to keep contracts at $7M per WAR and through age 36 or less. Players want at least $10M per WAR and through age 38 or later. Tucker is under team control for ages 27-28. Let's say his arbitration salaries add up to $37.8M ($12.6M and $25.2M) those 2 years. Potential extension this offseason: Tucker should want an additional 10 years and $352M and the team should counter with additional 8 yrs and $224M. median (added to 1st 2 yrs) is 11yrs / $325.8M through age 37. If the team sticks to their 6 year max policy then they are only paying for his peak years (28.9 expected WAR in 6 seasons). Tucker should ask for $289 to counter his lost earning power when becoming a FA. Astros should counter w/ $168.7M (18.7 expected WAR ×$7M for 4 FA years + 2 arb. Seasons @$37.8M). Median = 6yrs $228.85M None of this will happen. The Astros are likely to offer him 6 yrs $150 (their arb numbers of $10M and $20M + $30M per year for 4 FA seasons) which is $5.2M per expected WAR and then tell the fans it's a fair offer (despite it being 26% below the minimum a star can expect in FA and 11% below what they SHOULD offer him w/ 2 yrs of control left, by the expected numbers) and let him walk after 2025.
Yeah, 5+ WAR players who carried their team offensively through two months of the season (June/July) grow on trees. The should trade him. The Astros might get some good prospects who some day could turn into a player like Kyle Tucker.
If they could trade him like the Twins traded for an ace like Lopez they should consider making the trade. Otherwise pass.
I’d trade any player not named Altuve or Yordan for the right return. If the Astros are sure Tucker won’t sign a team-friendly extension and another team is offering more than he’s worth, I’d be fine with trading King Tuck; same goes for Valdez. Say they trade Tucker this offseason for a return similar to what the Nats received for Soto (even slightly less, like 3 MLB Top 75 prospects), then sign a lesser free agent like Michael Conforto or Teoscar Hernandez or Mark Canha to replace him, they could come out way ahead. Again, same goes for Framber; if they could trade him for 3 elite prospects, then go sign a slightly lesser free agent SP like Jordan Montgomery, they’d be coming out ahead. I consider either of those outcomes incredibly unlikely, but those moves would make sense for Houston if the opportunity presented itself.
I would especially do the Montgomery deal. His best years are ahead of him. IMHO Doubtful the Rangers let him walk. I've liked Montgomery for years. Very underrated guy.
I would gladly trade Framber, Tucker, and $160M of Jim Crane’s money for Jordan Montgomery, Teoscar Hernandez, and 6 of the top 100 prospects in the league.
