There’s been 20 of those decisions (at least) through the course of the year. I agree with you conceptually about the numbers. At the end of the year my partner and I are going to need out and figure out exactly how many games the numbers say Dusty cost us. I suspect it’s somewhere between 4 and 5 games when it’s all said and done. That said- 10 runs is a mathematical deal that makes a certain amount of sense in a macro perspective but when the game is worth 1 run or is tied in a specific high leverage situation you don’t need to 10 runs to pull a game from the loss column to the win column you need 1 run. And he doesn’t give us the best chance at getting that one run.
This went under the table yesterday. For Dana? Alejandro? Or for the fans in general? "Everything private because there are people on your team that play against you." Hit' em up Maldy?
To your point it’s difficult to quantify a mangers role in losses by lineups etc but Dusty has been famous for this since he’s been in baseball. We’re talking about a manger that insisted on batting Bonds 5th in 1993 and parts of 94’. He’s always infuriated fan bases and baffled BB media with illogical decisions. This article is 10 years old but does a great job of illustrating Bakers illogical moves. I’m like you, I don’t get too bent either way, he is what he is, however this season has shown that a couple wins here or there are absolutely gold and what Baker is doing is following the exact same play book he’s used his entire time as a manager. It’s a damn shame because the guy has all the other tools that make a great manager. https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/5/21/4351818/dusty-baker-joey-votto-lineups-reds
What’s cute and quaint about that is Dusty was just screwing up the order- not burying 2 All Star bats on the bench on the regular. if only.
My estimate would be that Dusty has cost the Astros about 50 runs based on fWAR caused by who plays and who doesn't (i.e., on average this will cost ~5 wins, but depending on luck can be much higher or even lower). On lineup choices, I estimate it is only in the 4-5 run range. This would be worse, but Altuve is a good f$%^ing hitter that wants to bat leadoff, and Dusty bats him leadoff.
Yep. And we have usually batted someone second that’s a good hitter too, except Peña who usually bats well when he hits second so has worked out ok- except for stupid Dubon ****. My guess is 50/60. We will do it and post the math.
Pena has been the worst at batting 2nd this year for the Astros (min 2 starts). He was hot last year there and early this year, but had about a 3-month period that he was basically Maldonaldo batting 2nd.
My apologies to Maldonaldo. I just did a quick run of June-August batting 2nd for Pena. Maldy isn't close to being that bad of a hitter.
I took Runs+RBI - HR in games started divided by games started to get the amount of runs per starts that a hitter produces. Julks 59 in 77 starts= 0.77 per start Chas 100 in 100 = 1.00 per start Diaz (total) 77 in 82 starts= 0.94 per start Diaz (C) 49 in 40 starts= 1.23 per start Maldy 51 in 101 starts= 0.47 per start. That's a difference of 1/4 run per start for Chas over Julks and 1/2 run per start (3/4 as catcher) for Diaz over Maldy. Chas sat on the bench, healthy in 17 of Julks starts. If he had started 12 of those games that is 3 extra runs. Diaz has been on the bench in 68 of Maldy's 109 starts. If catcher was split 50/50 between, Diaz would have 35 more starts at catcher, which would be about 26 more runs. Just those 2 changes = 29 more runs. If you go by the estimate that 10 runs = 1 win then that's about 3 more wins this team should have. And that doesn't take other factors into account like keeping SP in too long, or playing Dubon in CF where he is an inferior defender to Chas and Meyers, and inferior bat to Chas, starting Madris or Bannon, etc.
I think 5 wins is pretty accurate in assessing how many wins Baker has cost the Astros this season based on things that can be gleaned from stats. It is very difficult to estimate the impact he has on culture, morale, and player development. Coming into this season I would have said Baker was very good in those areas but just my opinion I feel like he has done a very poor job of developing young/unestablished players (Diaz, Pena, Meyers, Kessinger, Singleton) this season; I think he’s pretty hands off with pitcher development so I don’t hold him accountable for the failure to establish a true #3 SP from Brown, Javier, France, and Urquidy. But it also seems like there’s more division in the clubhouse this season than in any other year of this contending run, or at least it’s been exposed more. That could be just because the team didn’t run away with the division which had invited more scrutiny, but the contentious way Baker has handled questions about McCormick and Diaz has not reflected well on him. So for now I feel like it’s pretty safe to say a “good” manager would have clinched a playoff spot by now and would have a 3-4 game lead in the division at least. I don’t see any way to justify bringing Baker back next season if Houston misses the playoffs. You can’t fire the owner (not that I would want to), the current GM was hired too late to be responsible, and someone has to be held accountable for forfeiting a year with an all-time contending roster core.
I would say treating instead of developing. Kessinger and Meyers may have benefitted with a little more time, though I think mostly them not playing regularly has made it harder to evaluate them. Diaz looks freaking great and I have a hard time believing another manager would have him further along. It does not look like Dusty has attempted to get the pitchers comfortable throwing to Diaz, and actually has undermined Diaz's relationship with the pitchers from his public statements. When there are two catchers, I see Dusty saying Maldy is being used to straighten out Brown as hugely insulting to Diaz. Dusty saying Maldy needs to catch everyone as you never know who's going to be hurt come postseason time, and then not making sure Diaz catches everyone as insulting to Diaz as well as showing Dusty decided on who the postseason catcher was prior to the season. A movie quote that has some bearing on this..."If you believe you're playing well because you're getting laid, or because you're not getting laid, or because you wear women's underwear, then you *are*! And you should know that!". Maybe Maldy is helping the pitchers pitch better even if it doesn't show up in box scores over the last 3 years due to just really odd luck in a large sample. Reinforcing this perception may make pitchers pitch worse when Diaz catches. As Diaz really looks like he's going to be the catcher for the Astros the next 5 years, it is Dusty job to make pitchers think that both Maldy and Diaz are women's underwear.
You can probably take Kessinger off that list because I think you’re right that he hasn’t gotten enough time, but there’s not a good justification for him to have played over the guys he would have taken time away from. But: Diaz: undermined his defensive value and defensive development/confidence in a MAJOR way, likely slowed his offensive development by not playing him more. Pena: failed to get him to take another step forward. Meyers: failed to give him consistent at bats. A lot of the Dubon/Julks OF innings could have been used to get Meyers established as a quality everyday player (or provide enough evidence to finally write him off as a bench player); instead we’re still left wondering what kind of player he really is. Singleton: failed to give him a viable audition when Abreu was (in hindsight) clearly injured. Singleton was red hot in AAA and should have been the everyday 1B from the time Abreu showed signs of injury until the time Abreu showed he was fully healthy in a rehab stint. Any add’l DH or PH ABs should have also gone to Singleton. As it is he has been a near complete waste of a roster spot, and it’s hard to make any conclusions about him given how inconsistent he’s been used.
Reading that article really made my blood boil for all the times Dubon was leading off (while Altuve was injured) and Chas was stuck hitting 7 or 8. 2023 Batting 1st in lineup (PA) AVG/OBP/SLG Dubon (293) .248/.270/.351 FatChas (31) .333/.400/.519 "It says something that on Sunday and Monday, when Cozart sat due to illness, Baker did not alter his lineup, but simply plugged Cesar Izturis, a career .254/.293/.322 hitter, into Cozart's number-two slot." FFS...
Completely agree with this. Meyers, Kessinger, and Singleton have all had flashes and done enough to make me wonder. For 3 years, everything I have seen from Meyers tells me he has the same ceiling and potential as Chas. Obviously Chas has taken his opportunity and even exceeded his perceived ceiling which very few players do, but Meyers wasting away on the bench unable to even have that chance is a crime. And as you said now another year is gone and we still don't know. Kessinger really should be in AAA if he is a legitimate prospect. Wasting away on the bench is exactly what they said they did not want, when they sent Korey Lee down. As you said there is no place for him. He is either traded or given up on as a legitimate prospect this offseason. Chris Burke comes to mind. Singleton has talent and has shown it in spurts. Even with little and sporadic playing time he makes pitchers throw strikes and extra pitches and walks while limiting strikeouts. One of Dusty's many failings is not resting Abreu 20-35% of the games and giving Jon enough playing time to see if he is a legitimate option for this role in 2024.
In 2024 this team should have 8 of 9 position player spots filled and at least 1 bench spot. Diaz, Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Yordan, Chas, and Tucker have spots in stone. Dubon is on the bench. That leaves: 1) backup catcher - Cesar Salazar, or more likely a defense first veteran in the $1-4M range. 2) starting LF or CF depending where Chas plays which will be determined by who wins this spot- Meyers, Leon, Dirden, Corona, and Barber are candidates but none have had great or extensive AAA sucess so maybe a mid level veteran is signed or Brantley is brought back. 3) 4th outfielder- see #2 above for candidates 4) backup 1B - Singleton hasn't had an extensive chance to take this job but he's really the only candidate currently on the roster besides Kessinger. Loperfido is interesting but may need more AAA time.
On Kessinger. I'd say a lot has happened in the last month that would prevent him from playing now. I'm not sure Singleton and Julks are better hitters and yet those 2 got DH PAs over Kessinger (edit, I think an IF should have played DH with Kessinger playing their spot) prior to the Astros lineup getting a healthier Abreu and Brantley back. Prior to Dubon going crazy lately with the bat, I wasn't sure Dubon was a better overall infielder. I still view Meyers as a better overall CF, but I gotta say Dubon is playing like a starter-caliber player on most teams.
I hope the Astros spend more than that on the catcher. I may be the high man on Diaz, but I want a catcher that is good enough to allow Diaz to play 1B a lot to protect his bat (or someone like Contreras that could tag team with Diaz).
That is legitimate. That mostly depends on if they see him as a starting catcher or a hitter who can catch. Is he Sean Murphy, Carlos Santana, or Evan Gattis? If he's Murphy then get a cheap veteran If he's Santana get a better guy with potential to become the starter. If he's Gattis then trade for a young catcher to start 2024 or 2025.
