LOL. Siakam was an all-star this year. He's under 30 years old and averaged over 25 a game. Trading #4, #20, and one year left of KJ Martin would be cheap. But whatever.
I think the knock on a Siakam deal is that you don't have the ability to extend him, from what I understand. So, he has to become a free agent next summer and you have a real possibility of giving all of that up for nothing. It's just too big of a gamble.
TIER I: The All-Stars 1. Kyrie Irving, PG, 31, Dallas: $50,555,884 2. James Harden, SG, 33, Philadelphia (player option): $47,075,783 According to our Shams Charania, Harden is torn between returning to Philadelphia and gunning for a championship or returning to Houston and going 33-49. Either way, he’ll be opting out of his deal for 2023-24 and $35.6 million, a relative bargain he accepted to allow the Sixers to sign P.J. Tucker and still stay below the tax apron. The thing that makes the two possibilities financially more even is the league’s “over-38” rule, which prevents a player of Harden’s age from signing a five-year deal for the full max. Normally that guaranteed fifth year would be the kicker that would allow Philadelphia to win any bidding war, but instead, the advantage may be with Houston: the Sixers can offer more on a four-year deal ($210 million to $201 million), but because Texas has no state income tax, the overall money is basically even. Given Harden’s age and conditioning, this is likely too much money for Harden no matter what: BORD$ sees the first year as fine, and one could possibly justify this from Philly’s perspective as a strategic overpay to try squeezing a title from Joel Embiid’s prime. Note that in the absence of other moves, a four-year max for Harden would also push Philly to the tax apron with only 10 players under contract, possibly complicating efforts to re-sign free agents such as Paul Reed, Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels and using their midlevel exception. The same contract in Houston would have few tax implications: Houston projects to be more than $60 million below the cap, and Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün don’t become free agents until 2025. 3. Fred VanVleet, PG, 29, Toronto (player option): $46,873,792 I sometimes wonder why there is such intense focus on Irving and the Lakers when VanVleet is nearly as good and vastly more reliable. This BORD$ valuation is slightly bloated by Nick Nurse’s insistence on playing his starters 47.9 minutes per game, resulting in VanVleet’s minutes estimate being unrealistically high for what he’s likely to face next season — whether under a new coach in Toronto or as a free agent. The other twist here is that VanVleet only has seven years of experience, which means his max is “just” $40.2 million — a relative bargain, at least in the first year of a multi-year deal. A good deal structure for him would be three years with a fourth-year player option, which lets him cash in on a 10-year veteran max for 35 percent of the cap if he’s still playing at a high level in 2026. VanVleet certainly will opt out of his final year at $22.8 million and has no incentive to sign an extension yet because even the revised extension rules in the new CBA won’t net him nearly enough. 4. Kristaps Porziņģis, C, 27, Washington (player option): $39,132,351 TIER II: High-end role players 5. Miles Bridges, PF, 25, Charlotte (restricted): $29,689,570 6. Josh Hart, SG, 28, New York (player option): $28,607,658 7. D’Angelo Russell, PG, 27, L.A. Lakers: $26,867,883 8. Khris Middleton, SF, 31, Milwaukee (player option): $26,822,042 Middleton has a player option for $40.4 million, and there is no way he’s getting a salary like that on the open market. But this may be a situation where he and the Bucks can work out an arrangement that sees him opt out and re-sign a longer-term deal for lower dollars. First, that’s more in line with what Middleton’s value is these days after a couple of injury-wracked seasons, but second, the Bucks’ tax situation almost demands it. Getting Middleton’s salary down into the mid-$20-million range annually is what can allow Milwaukee to re-sign Brook Lopez (see below) and still remain below the first tax apron. A four-year deal in the $100 million range would be the equivalent of a three-year, $60 million extension but would potentially save the Bucks tens of millions in luxury tax in 2023-24. 9. Cam Johnson, PF, 27, Brooklyn (restricted): $26,368,306 Don’t be surprised if the bidding on Johnson gets a little wacky, simply because rivals teams know they might be able to spook the Nets from matching if they can present a strong offer sheet. Brooklyn enters the offseason just $10 million from the projected tax line; matching a strong sheet for Johnson would push the Nets past the first tax apron unless they can ditch salary someplace else. (Joe Harris and Patty Mills would be the likely places to start.) The other consideration, of course, is that Johnson is such a plug-and-play fit in most systems because he can competently guard both forward spots, runs the floor and shoots 39.3 percent career from 3. There isn’t enough shot creation here for star-level upside, which is why teams should be careful going too high up the salary ladder, but Johnson is a valuable piece who seems likely to have multiple suitors. 10. Jakob Poeltl, C, 27, Toronto: $25,260,040 11. Draymond Green, PF, 33, Golden State (player option): $23,789,491 12. Austin Reaves, SG, 25, L.A. Lakers (restricted): $22,865,329 Is Austin Reaves worth the max “Gilbert Arenas” offer sheet? It looks like he might be. A breakout star in the Lakers’ run to the conference finals, Reaves is the rare case of a player limited by the so-called Arenas rule because he signed a two-year contract when he entered the league. That limits him to signing with the Lakers for the league’s average salary, projected at $12 million a year. However, an offer sheet from another team has different rules. It can pay him the midlevel exception in the first two years, (starting at $11.4 million), and the max salary in the third and fourth years of the contract, which would come in at $36.8 and $38.5 million, respectively. Such an offer sheet would pay him a total of $98 million over four years, which is not entirely out of line with his BORD$ valuation. The twist is that the Lakers can’t offer this to Reaves: The maximum L.A. can do on its own is $53 million over four years. That larger deal would have to come in the form of an offer sheet from another team, one with at least $25 million in cap space. There are softer versions of this that are possible; for example, bumping up the third and fourth years to a mere $25 million would require only $18 million in cap room. The good news for the Lakers is that their cap sheet can handle this offer sheet structure, because the Reaves salary bump would happen right as LeBron James’s contract expires (if he picks up his player option) at the end of 2025. That makes it less likely another team will offer it — why burn three days of free agency on an offer sheet that will just get matched? — and likely leave L.A. in a strong position to retain Reaves at midlevel exception-type money. 13. Gary Trent, Jr. SG, 24, Toronto (player option): $21,983,792 TIER III: Good players who could maybe do more 14. Tre Jones, PG, 23, San Antonio (restricted): $20,909,844 15. Jordan Clarkson, SG, 31, Utah (player option): $19,712,238 16. P.J. Washington, PF, 24, Charlotte (restricted): $19,054,564 17. Coby White, SG, 23, Chicago (restricted): $18,678,821 18. Jerami Grant, PF, 29, Portland: $18,560,550 19. Bruce Brown, SF, 26, Denver (player option): $17,764,642 20. Dillon Brooks, SF, 27, Memphis: $17,746,207 Under any circumstances? Really? What about the circumstance where you can’t find a starting-caliber small forward with your non-taxpayer midlevel exception? The minute Memphis said it wasn’t bringing back Brooks, however, he immediately became a hugely interesting free agent for any team with cap space and defensive issues. Coming off a second-team All-Defense selection and in the prime of his career at 27, Brooks should be an attractive target for cap room teams such as Houston, Detroit and Utah who need a defensive stopper and have the ability to go above the midlevel exception on a multi-year deal. TIER IV: Solid players who help 21. Harrison Barnes, PF, 31, Sacramento: $17,473,621 22. Christian Wood, C, 27, Dallas: $17,289,331 23. Donte DiVincenzo, SG, 26, Golden State (player option): $16,280,336 24. Brook Lopez, C, 35, Milwaukee: $16,241,034 The truism with players this old is that it isn’t the money that burns you, it’s the years. Lopez was awesome this season, but he’s 35 and missed nearly all the previous season with back surgery. Between that and his playing the least valuable position, the BORD$ valuation is pretty conservative. Milwaukee has absolutely no choice but to bring Lopez back and, as noted with Middleton above, has some incentives to extend out the years rather than going high on the money in 2023-24. In Lopez’s case, however, that’s constrained both by the “over-38” rule and by the real possibility that Lopez could decline quickly in the out years on a new contract. I don’t think the money gets quite as low as this BORD$ number suggests, but maybe something in the range of $55 million to $60 million over three years? 25. Grant Williams, PF, 24, Boston (restricted): $15,159,221
The rules on how to acquire 3 guys, OG, Siakim, and Reeves is extremely confusing to me. Can someone please do a synopsis of the rules on signing or re-signing these guys since they are so often mentioned as targets for the Rockets? Thanks in advance.
I don’t like Dillon Brooks. I think he’s a dirty player, and I’m not much on guys who run their mouth and can’t back it up, but he’s a good defensive player. On a Tate-like deal it might be worth the swing, but if we overpay this guy, I’m not gonna be able to get over it. I see him as a defensive stopper off the bench; I don’t want him shooting a lot. He’s been such a bad shooter the last two years. I can’t see giving this guy more than $7 mil per, but he was making $17mil this season?
https://hoopshype.com/lists/2023-nb...ck-lively-bilal-coulibaly-brandin-podziemski/ "There’s a belief around the league that Orlando is open to moving the No. 6 and No. 11 picks if the Magic can move into the 3-5 range."
Guards: Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Josh Christopher, TyTy Washington Jr., Daishen Nix Forwards: Jabari Smith Jr., Kenyon Martin Jr., Jae'sean Tate, Tari Eason Centers: Alperen Sengun, Usman Garuba Supposedly signing 3-4 veteran players this off season, I'd expect some players to be shipped out on draft night in trades. (KJ Martin, Jae'Sean Tate, Usman Garuba, Josh Christopher, TyTy Washington Jr., Daishen Nix)
I’ve thought a lot about this. I know many think it would be a no-brainer, but if our scouts believe it’s a 4-person draft I don’t want to move back. However, moving back means getting two of: Whitmore, Walker, Hendricks, Black, Asar, Lively, Cason Wallace. I still say go all in on the best player, but it’s a tough call cause they are all good prospects.
The raw tools on Ausar, Whitmore, and Walker are almost as good as Amen's, if they can learn to use them effectively. I also really love Cason Wallace's game, he's one of those high-motor intense competitor guys, and his skills are pretty well-rounded. Type of dude the Miami Heat would covet. So I can see the argument for it, if Orlando wants to make a deal. You'd have to at least think on it anyway. Maybe wait and see who falls to 11 before you pull the trigger? I do want to say I think Lively is getting just a bit overhyped 'round these parts (I blame DD). I don't see him as a lottery pick, and grabbing him at #11 would be a pretty significant reach in my view. He's a nice prospect, but there's a real chance he ends up as the next Willie Cauley-Stein. He's mobile enough to play but he doesn't have the kind of elite mobility NBA teams usually covet from a defense-first big man these days, so there are some questions about whether he will translate into a great defender or just an average-ish one. The shooting is also more a hope than a reality in game situations for now.
If we trade back, I think we take best available at #6 and package #11 and #20 for a good player. That #11 pick anchoring the deal should be significant. Dallas is going to try to use #10 to get a Win Now piece. #11 is just as good. Historically speaking, when several picks are given up for a player, those picks rarely amount to anything of significance because they are usually pretty late. While I’m not advocating this trade, you could offer 11, 20, a 2nd and JC for DeJounte Murray. They get a return close to what they gave up, and that #11 pick will likely be higher than any of their outgoing picks.
They are idiots though if they think that, they could get 2 or 3 shooters, another second round pick, with all of that. Paolo and Franz need shooters and not creators. Neither Whitmore, Jarace, Amen are really that enticing to their playing style. Banking on Scoot to fall, is also a huge risk.
I don’t know. I could totally see Orlando being intrigued by a Paolo/Amen/Franz/Wendell core. That’s a lot of length, and Franz and Wendell are decent shooters. Add a SG who shoots 40%+ from 3 (which they have with Gary Harris), and you have a really interesting starting 5.
If you feel there's unlikely star players after #3, might as well double our chances and focus on quality role players. The guys we have like Christopher, Martin, etc. will be due extensions soon...
If you read their target is Amen. They don't expect Scoot to fall or Amen to be there at 6. I'm ok with a bigger project like Bouliaby or Amari Bailey if they are sitting on the bench behind Harden or someone else. I don't even know if Amen is ready to start... so trading back to me is more appealing than best player available at 4. I also would prioritize lightly or unprotected picks 2 or 3 years from now when we have extension decisions to make and cap space is gone. Overpaying Jalen is less likely if you have a top 10 pick the year he hits free agency...
