Leave it to Marshall Bryant to bump this thread. I had money on you. Now, time for the Astros to go on a run.
Since it's been mentioned I never give Dusty credit,he managed an excellent game today. The lineup was ideal for the match up, he managed the pen as if it were winnable when not all managers would, and he made a pinch hitter call that worked out.
Agreed, with 2 addendums: day off tomorrow helped with the bullpen decisions PH Dubon was the right call whether it worked or not
Baker still holding back this team however. Maldonado needs to be benched. Pena needs to be batting second. Abreu needs to be batting 7th. Montero has already cost us 3 games in which Abreu should have been pitching the 8th. Instead of 24-19, we should be 29-14. Huge difference.
I think people's expectations are completely out of wack. I can get on board with your points about Maldy, Pena and Abreu. They're reasonable points. However, I don't think even doing all three moves the needle much if at all. like maybe 1 more win if anything. Montero lost us 3 games: I mean yea Dusty is a terrible manager for pitching his setup guy in the 8th inning instead of burying him in low-leverage situations until his contract runs out (/s) 29-14 is a .674 winning percentage. There is basically nothing to suggest the Astros' talent level early in the season is that high. The team's been beset by injury and under-performance. The Stros' expected record and winning percentage by pythagorean formula is 25-18 with a .588 winning percentage. They're 24-19 with a .558 winning percentage. I will grant you that one loss difference MIGHT ALL BE DUSTY'S FAULT. Or you know, random variance.
The Astros' offensive performance thus far lags runs scored, suggesting they've benefited from a fair amount of luck from clustering (although Bregman and Tucker have had some bad batted ball luck). I also like how people write off the manager costing your team 1-2 wins over a season...that's like $10-20M worth of production they are costing which is like 10-20x more than their entire salary. That's hardly nothing.
Last time I posted on this thread was February. It wasn't me. But go ahead and let me have your hate anyway. It's no skin off my nose.
Considering the obstacles that the Astros have faced this year, I think Baker is doing a great job. In most cases, you should be sticking with your decisions early in the year and only make adjustments when there is a significant event. Maldonado vs. Diaz: I believe that this is a matter of making Diaz earn his starting spot, which I can agree with. You can already see this is starting to shift with Diaz getting more starts as of late. Abreu: He has been moved around in the batting order to try and get him jump started. This team is relying on Abreu to be a playoff performer and he is not going to work out his issues on the bench. He should be starting until his presence compromises the team making the playoffs at all (August at the earliest) Montero: Again, this team needs him to be in high-leverage situations in the playoffs. Coddling him or shifting his role now doesn't help in October. Pena: I think moving him around is showing how much confidence Dusty has in Pena. He is needed to help jumpstart this offense This is all academic until our injured players start coming back. I believe that its an organizational decision to give up a few wins in the early season to get it right at the end.
95% of baseball manager decisions are straight forward most knowledgeable fans can make them. The beauty of baseball is the right decision can still turn bad, and the wrong decision can work out. The other 5% may require extensive knowldege and/or experience that only the best baseball minds can make, but thats such a small percentage it makes little impact, and there is still the chance of results. Of course the talent level determines how important those chances are and how much a bad break or 2 impacts the overall record. What the best managers do is communicate, motivate, and understand the players and people in the organization. Hall of fame level managers end up losing and getting fired all the time. Not because they forget how to manage. Because their message is lost. People stop believing in them and their message and they no longer motivate. Dusty is the perfect manager for this team because they love him and want to win for him and the talent level means no special luck or outmanuevering is needed.
Weren’t you blaming him for Abreu pitching the 8th last night? anybody else pitches and gives up runs, Astros don’t likely win. Also you want Peña batting 2nd… but he’s been about the same everywhere this year… which is good. Good hitters can hit everywhere.
I agree that good hitters can hit anywhere but many factors do impact HOW GOOD that may be. Pena is not a good hitter. Pena us a good baseball player who is an average hitter and has proven that lineup position affects him significantly. It is true that all but 14% of his PA have been as the #1 and #6 hitter and he is close to the same in both spots, he is below average in both. Pena has a .743 OPS which is 101 OPS+ .735 is the current MLB average and 100 OPS+. Pena is .698 or 95 OPS+ as a leafoff hitter Pena us .680 or .93OPS+ as the #6 hitter. Pena only has 21 PA in the #2 spot which is 12% of his PA. But in that 12% he has 1.235 OPS or 168 OPS+, 20% of his runs, 18% of his RBI, and 25% of his extra base hits. Pena is a slightly below average hitter everywhere but in the #2 spot and those numners make him look just about average overall.
Again, this seems entirely arbitrary. There's nothing magical about the #2 spot that makes him a better hitter. Yes, Yordan is behind him and thus he may get more pitches to hit. But then why doesn't that same effect translate automatically to other hitters who go to the #2 spot? Also pitchers (especially the good ones) aren't pitching to one hitter with a concern of how they're going to pitch to the next hitter... they're going to execute a game plan vs. that individual hitter based on their scouting reports/tendencies (and there should be enough of a book on Pena to have that). The stat I'd need to see is that Pena is getting pitched to differently in the #2 spot (both in pitch type and pitch location) vs. any other spot in the lineup. If that becomes statistically significant, then its a no-brainer... but I don't think we're going to find that big of a disparity.
I'm not saying. "This is what I believe." or " This is what I think " I am submitting data. Facts. It doesn't matter WHY it us what it is. The facts are the facts. Jeremy Pena has 174+ PA at 3 different lineup positions and in both 2022 and 2023 he is significantly better hitting 2nd. How long and how many games, plate appearances, and years do you personally need before that becomes real to you? And I understand if you need more. Now whether the team is better with him hitting 2nd is a different argument. There is still the idea that the team would be better with a better OB% guy 2nd even if Jeremy's personal performance is worse.
Of course it matters why... facts without context or with small sample size effect can be purely circumstantial. Does Pena get pitched differently when he bats 2nd vs. when he bats elsewhere? If the answer is no... then we start delving that this is more of a mental crutch for him that all of a sudden he gets on base more and hits for more power. In baseball we tend to believe that those sort of things even out over the long run (i.e. - a players' "clutchness" in the playoffs, etc.). With a team that's as analytical as the Astros are when it comes to this stuff... I highly doubt they're just sitting on the cheat code of unlocking HOF/MVP Pena every single game and choosing to ignore it.
If the only difference is Jeremy THINKING he is better in the #2 spot are the results any less real? A mental crutch is still an advantage if it improves performance. Placebo effect. I understand small sample size and each person has to determine what size sample he believes is required. But I don't care if the advantage is physical, emotional,mental, or anything else- if performance is improved then performance is improved.
I tend to agree with you completely and totally and think there's probably not anything there. You do mention a mental crutch and those things are real. I didn't play baseball at a super high level but I was a scratch golfer and played competitively into my early 20's. I've also talked with other guys about this- and when you have a feeling you are going to make a putt it happens a huge percentage of the time and when you think you are missing you miss like 99% of the time. I wouldn't be surprised on some level if baseball players didn't have similar feelings. Now- this is not at all to say Pena actually has a mental crutch or anything but if he didn't I wouldn't immediately assume it isn't real. Confidence is probably important in an endeavor like trying to hit a baseball. I know it was in trying to control a golf ball.
Placebo effects aren’t sustainable… if that’s what we’re banking on, then there’s really not much more to discuss. I was honest when asking whether or not he’s being pitched different there. It shouldn’t be hard for somebody to bring up those stats.
This-- honestly, needs to be stickied to the first page. Literally everyone in the Astros org not named Abreu, Maldonado, or Julks... #FFS
