Is China invading Taiwan inevitable and what will US defend it??

People forget this but when the ukraine invasion happened biden said in his speech, "this isn't a mandatory war for America and we will not be involved in a war of choice." This was a very important framing because when biden talks about taiwan he states, "we have a responsibility to main status quo under taiwan relations act."

The framing is completely different and America knows they have to protect taiwan. It's not even just about the chips but if China took taiwan they'd have open access to pacific. The entire us doctrine on China is to not allow them to get past the first island chain.

 

A huge percentage of people don't know this, including some fairly well educated people I have had conversations with.

I’m not saying I disagree with you about the importance of Taiwan. I am telling you that a lot of people, including relatively well educated people are ignorant to Taiwan and it’s significance.

I run in some social circles that are primarily doctors, lawyers or agents - they are well educated as a rule and many of them cannot really articulate why Taiwan is important and very few of them are aware that Taiwan has more people than the states of NY and Florida, and almost as many as Texas.

 

War games and sims are big talk, much like how everyone thought Russia would steamroll Kiev. They might have if the Russians overtook an airstrip. It became a roll of the dice like a game of risk.

No Taiwanese is going to bank their future on percentages and chances. They'll negotiate to sandbag and add time on the clock. They'd rather tip back towards the middle rather than fully going one way or the other which Tsai did in her first term. If it means talking to the CCP, that's on the table as well.

Something these sims dont account for is immediacy and urgency. Israel looks erratic and agressive but they're surrounded by enemies and threats whereas we launch missiles from the safety of bases tens of thousands of miles away.

We think of it like fantasy league rather than real life coaches who get into the heads of their players and the opposition. People in Taipei live in smallish apartments worth over 2M dollars. I'm not sure their calculus is the same as the Ukraine fighters, but hey maybe the "US wins" years after Taipei is reduced to rubble and you have survivors who have less to lose and more eager to pay back the CCP.

China is always looming while the US changes policies at the whims of the current president. China can also wage a war of attrition while we'd be constrained by our proximity and willingness for allies to anger their closer aggressive neighbor.

So yes, ofc Taiwanese will talk and even negotiate. Doesn't mean anything conclusive has to come out of it. Just means the fighting is potentially delayed.

 

Of course most Taiwanese are eager to get into an open conflict with the PRC. If they were they would’ve already declared independence. At the same time most Taiwanese don’t want to live under PRC sovereignty and greatly mistrust the CCP.

I still don’t feel that there will be an invasion anytime soon because I have think for all of their bluster the PRC knows that taking Taiwan will be incredibly difficult and could be disastrous.

 

Geopolitically I think US bluster and moves to keep the PRC out of the Pacific have been needlessly antagonistic. For one the law of the sea allows for free navigation. The US frequently criticized the PRC for this regard is the South China Sea yet says it will do the same for the Pacific.

This is one of those I think that all sides could reduce the tension. By reaffirming that open access to international water ways will be maintained.

 

Of course they don't want to live with the lying PRC. Taiwan would definitely change within 5-10 years.

But the calculus is different when your neighbor is brandishing his gun, and a call to the police takes 6 months to send in the swat team.

 

What everyone fails to address also is how China imports over 70% of their energy and majority of their food from overseas. We have a far superior advantage with our subs and stealth bombers. We could embargo the country and starve them to death while keeping our carriers back.

@rocketsjudoka you talk about war of attrition but that only works when you're resource independent. When all your oil is coming from middle east you have bigger problems than anyone else.

 

I mentioned attrition, not RJ.

That's part of the reason why they want Taiwan. Its location would break the encirclement the US has made with its allies.

No one honestly knows if/when China would attack, but if they do, I doubt they'd do it half assedly. It's a strong and tangible threat much like having a gun pointed to your face.

Most people here assume what would Chuck Norris do in that situation.... A roundhouse kick to the face or the chest.

 

The attrition comment was to the other poster not to you. Sorry for not clarifying.

I think people overrate dictators. Zero covid was literally the dumbest thing in the world and it destroyed their economy for nothing. I just think it's dumb of people to assume that China will win just because their ran by a dictator who doesn't care about polling.

His people need to be feed. China imports literally majority of their crops used for food processing. What's China plan to protect the trading routes when they don't have destroyers to protect them?



Philippines is truly a wild card. CCP is clearly pissed about the direction of the relationship. They're begging for trump to come back as he hated allies

 

Bro, China produces over 600 billion kg of grain in 2022 (not including rice), thats 500 kg per person per year, 700 million pigs in 2022, thats 1 pig every 2 people, 14billion kgs of chicken and the list goes on. With the new energy contracts between China and russia, its gonna be hard to starve them to death.

Considering china is the top 3 trading partner to almost every major country in the world, you really can't sanction them like russia. If the ukrainian war have taught us anything is that sanctions is not gonna destroy a major super powder, at least fast enough to stop a war. It just not gonna work, your allies are not going to sustain prolonged sanctions without their own economies taking a serious hit. NZ for example will never sanction china under any circumstance over taiwan. our own economy will be destroyed.

If the day comes for an invasion of taiwan by china, its not going to be like Ukraine, its going to be over quick, real quick. No foreign aid will have any time to respond. and no way America will dare to bomb china mainland in retaliation, it pretty much will guarantee mutual destruction. Also from the Ukraine war, we've learnt that America will not enter into a direct confrontation with another super power. USA just does not have the resources to do so, at least right now.

What america really needs to spear head is to promote peace between the relevant parties. I would love for one day american president can sit the two leaders from both sides down and really talk this through. Taiwan don't want war, china don't want war. Pretty much as long as america doesn't try to encircle china with taiwan, peace can be maintained

 

I don’t know how much you’ve followed this thread but there is a lot of reasons that if the PRC were to try to invade Taiwan it wouldn’t be over quick.

Yes a war with the PRC would be devastating to the Global Economy and costly in terms of blood and treasure to the US. It very well could be the end of civilization. That also applies to the PRC also.

I think a lot of people simultaneously overrate and underrate the PRC. The PRC should be taken very seriously as a military power but to say that they could easily take Taiwan or even control the South China Sea should be considered skeptically.

As someone whose been to the PRC many times, done business there, knows the language and follows their culture this isn’t the generation that fought the Japanese, undertook the Long March or even survived the Cultural Revolution. Most Chinese have grown up with full bellies, music competitions and video games. I don’t know how likely they are willing to give that up just to try to take Taiwan and fight the Western imperialists.

 

Microsoft Security Alert.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/sec...tructure-with-living-off-the-land-techniques/

 

I am glad we have a Microsoft and a Google who have the knowledge and manpower to combat these evolving IT threats.

 

#GhostFleet moment of the day.

 

The issue is China building military installations in disputed territory. It’s why the Philippines did a 180 on the US.

 

Decades ago, Japan had built a military installation in Dai Yu Island, which both Japan / Taiwan had claimed legal ownership

US was ok w that.

 

Don't you mean the Japanese and the PRC?

China's neighbors are wanting the US to have their back against your encroaching China.

 

Taiwan’s Policy toward the Diaoyu Islands Dispute

 

I agree with you on some points. I have also worked in and out of china for over 15 years and I agree with you that this generation is different than previous ones. But wouldn't it be the same for Taiwan or America? Really America hasn't seen an worthy opponent in over half a century. A war with China will be like UK in WW2, it will definitely mean the end of american dominance on the world.

Now to 'contain' China is definitely the wrong direction to take. Why contain it? Doesn't the people of china deserve the same benefits that americans enjoyed as the dominant power? Containing china/russia will guarantee their cooperation.

IMO allies don't mean ****. allies are only when interests are aligned. Look at the korean war, over 33K americans died, then look at american ally casualties. Like you said, war with china will mean economic collapse for any country (same goes for war with america), so you think american allies are gonna go all out? russia and china is different, for them its survival. For american allies, the first thing that comes to mind is how to take advantage of the situation, same as what america did in WW2, make money first (from both sides in fact), war second.

Right now peace and stability is what benefits everyone. Again, America should be broking a deal for both sides, not escalating the situation and threatening war. As a kiwi, war between america and china basically means the end of nz economy, so its the last thing we want, basically what everyone around the world is thinking as well. Its a bit selfish of america in its attempt to contain china and push the two sides onto the brink of war just to maintain america's world dominance IMO.

war between any major power right now will mean mutual destruction.