Everything must be earned in the AFC South...Texans Review

Good article about the Texans and the AFC South from NFL.com

AFC South

Houston
The expansion tag is going to stick with this team until they post a winning record. Last year's 5-11 mark wasn't a sign that progress was made, but there were some contributing factors to the poor record that should be resolved.

When the team was launched, the Texans decided to buy a defense and build an offense. It was a close model to how Capers launched the Panthers a few years before. It was a good plan, but injuries to the defensive line last year neutralized a unit that found themselves at the bottom of almost every significant category. Defensive tackle Seth Payne and end Gary Walker are healthy again, and the team added two very important rookies to the defensive side of the ball in cornerback Dunta Robinson and linebacker/defensive end Jason Babin.

Robinson gives Capers another cover corner to go with Aaron Glenn, and that enables Marcus Coleman to move to safety, and more importantly, lets Capers blitz and zone dog more than he's been able to in the past. The Texans didn't have a player in the top 40 in the conference in sacks, and if they can't get to Manning, McNair or Leftwich a few times, they'll never beat them. Robinson's presence will let Capers send Babin, Jamie Sharper and Kailee Wong more, and they need to generate close to 20 sacks between them.

As for the offense, it is true that Carr reduced his sacks from 76 in 2002 down to 36 in 2003, which is a good sign. The big question is whether or not he can throw more than nine touchdown passes for the season. In his first two seasons, he's hit on nine scores both times and he's given it away a total of 28 times. With wide receiver Andre Johnson coming off a great rookie season, the return of tight end Bennie Joppru and the emergence of running back Domanick Davis, much more is possible and expected.

Davis only had 28 carries in the first four games of 2003 and still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards for the season. This year with free agent Todd Wade at right tackle and defenses concerned about Johnson, Davis could climb to the 1,200-yard area.

When you study the Texans, there are a couple of conflicts that you can use to make a case in whatever direction you want to take with this team. The good news is this team beat the Carolina Panthers last year and took the Patriots to overtime before losing 23-20. They played the Super Bowl teams as well as anyone last year. Don't play these guys on opening day, either! Two years ago they beat the Cowboys, and last year they went into Miami and got the job done.

On the other side of the coin, their punter, Chad Stanley, punted the ball 97 times, the most in the NFL. The Texans were 1-5 and averaged only 19 points a game in the division. Worse than that, in the month of December, they went 1-3 and averaged just 11 points a game. Coaches like to build off momentum created late in the season, and the Texans didn't have any.

Finally, the Texans open up the season with San Diego and Detroit and don't have a divisional game until Week 6. They have time to create some momentum, build some confidence and make some waves in the division. I think it's realistic to expect an 8-8 record out of Houston and play the spoiler for either the Colts or Titans.