As a pretty avid reader of Nook's comments, with which I agree roughly 85% of the time, I think he would agree! As I understand Nook, his primary knock on Banchero is that he under-achieves on rim protection. (I think there's a lot to say here, incl. how the rate stats are a little misleading because he's playing next to someone who will literally be the longest person in the NBA.) But I think Nook is firmly in the "defensive concerns are overblown because tools to guard are there" camp. I'm no Banchero stan, but I agree w/ that wholeheartedly. He moves his feet *really* well for his size, has quite fluid hips and changes of direction really well, and has generally performed well in any on-ball situations where he's engaged. He shouldered an enormous offensive load this year, including playmaking duties, and as Houston fans (ahem) we know how offensive workload can trade off with defensive effort. What I think the video adds are the nice comps - Ant and Tatum. I didn't realize both got the "lazy defender" tag coming into the draft, for similar reasons. But still - having names of players excelling defensively, in spite of the same effort-based questions that dog Banchero, is effective.
I just made a comment defending Banchero's defense but noted that I wasn't a Banchero stan, and this tweet goes to why. I think he will be a superior first option to the other two, but probably not really a good enough first option to be the best player on a championship team. So if you are thinking of all of these guys in terms of how they work as second options, then it seems like he's nontrivially behind Smith and Holmgren, who seem much more likely to thrive without the ball in their hands.
The way I see it Paolo Banchero would be able to unlock the whole team. He has shown that he can be a first option player and thrive in that role if necessary. If he would have had electric scoring on his Duke team he would have looked even better. On this Houston team he wouldnt need to be saddled with the same responsibilities for a full game. He could take turns playmaking and scoring and highlighting the strengths of the other players on the team. If Jalen Green were to get hurt Paolo Banchero could step in as the alpha scorer and wouldnt need anyone to set him up for his spots/shots. Watching the playoffs I dont really want guys who "dont need the ball in their hands" I want guys who can take the rock and go get buckets and make things happen for his teammates. KPJ was the best catch and shoot 3 point shooter in the NBA last year - imagine Paolo collapsing the defense and kicking out? You could endure injuries better with a guy like Paolo in critical situations IMO.
Yes, I don't think that Banchero will have a problem rotating and guarding players, and guard players in space. My issue with him is that he is a power forward, and as a player in the post I want someone that provides a rim presence and that isn't what Banchero does or ever really will do. It is also why I said I think a combo of Banchero and Evan Mobley would be great. If the Rockets draft Banchero, then they are locked into having to get a rim protector at the five that can play even in small line ups and a small forward that is long and can switch well and offer some resistance when switching to defend inside. Those are two very difficult type of players to get. They can get the long wing defender easier than they will the five. Also if they add Banchero they will likely end up needing to move Sengun. They used two firsts on Sengun, but there is no way I am choosing Sengun over Banchero. So the long term fit for Banchero is harder than either Holmgren or Smith. There ARE (or were a few years ago) long fives that can stay on the court in small ball didn't need to be drafted at the top of the lottery. Examples are Adebayo and Time Lord... but there were others that were like Jackson and Mobley. If the Rockets add Banchero, there will not be a single long term player that will be a true plus defender (the vast majority of NBA defenders are in the middle)..... and the Rockets will have to add plus defenders at the 3 and 5, and hope that Green/Banchero make it a long term priority to defend.
Agree on the engaged part, but we can say the same about Ivey and Sharpe..... there are some guys that are always engaged like Holmgren or Eason but most at a young age are not.
Possibly. He certainly has shown that he isn't afraid to be a primary offensive option and he has some ability as a playmaker. The question for him is whether he will be efficient at it. I am reminded of a Mike D'Antoni quote: "It isn't hard finding a guy to shoot the ball twenty times a game. It is hard finding a player that can shoot the ball twenty times a game and be efficient." I don't doubt that he is going to be a good offensive player, if I have a concern on that side of the ball it is "how good". His shoot I think will improve, I don't think he will ever be a Durant but I think he will shoot better than 34% on threes going forward. He is a good playmaker for his size and position, but do you want him making plays? That is what one scout I know for the Bulls told me. He said that he felt Banchero may need to be reigned in some. You absolutely need someone willing to take and make tough shots in the playoffs. That is why the Rockets never won a title, when Harden was doubled no one else could consistently step up except a banged up Chris Paul. However, to me in the playoffs it is even simpler than that, you have to be able to create mismatches and exploit them. Offensively Banchero at his size and skill level can definitely do that. I do worry about his ability to play small ball 5 though and whether him in combination with others on the Rockets will be able to exert their will defensively. If the Rockets time to draft comes up and Banchero is sitting there at #3, you smile and take him and feel good adding him to Green. I just would rather have Chet and Smith with the Rockets already having Jalen Green.
We are gonna have too many players that need to eat man. I really wanted Chet man because he's not gonna be demanding the ball, this will be tough.
I knew it somebody has actually started watching tape and now everyone one else is falling in line. He will close to unanimous #1 by the time the draft rolls around he has the smallest holes in his game and the other guys were far more 1 dimensional, I really don't understand how Smith is getting projected at #1 these days.
The main thing to try and wrap your mind around is that Paolo is not going to be "the guy" here .. I dont think you need to worry about him becoming a volume chucker. He is plenty self aware and plays to his strengths and fills in the blanks as to what the team asks of him. He doesnt have a superstar ego that leads his decision making process on the court. Being able to steer the ship when necessary is the big take away. I think the mistake for Rocket fans is trying to extract a superstar to be the face of the team from this pick when we already have ours. We swung for the fence last year and were rewarded. ORL and OKC to a lesser degree are looking for that Batman. I equate the concerns over Paolos defense similarly with the concerns over Chets weight. I absolutely want him making plays. Not all game long though. Not as a primary ballhandler or even as a first option on most plays. I think he should touch the ball plenty as a decoy. I dont want a Duke Paolo. I want a team oriented guy who CAN steer the ship as a captain if needed and compliments the different lineups that he will be a part of. Agree 100% about the mismatches in the playoffs. Team defense is paramount. Smart players are vital. Watching Miami get thrashed last night just reinforced my opinion that if you dont have at least 3 guys that can go create and score you will not win rings regardless of how good your defense is. Jalen alone will not be enough and at the end of the day it seems that there are guys who prefer to win with defense and guys like me who prefer to have an elite offense in those game deciding moments. Im fully aware you need BOTH, but again in the battle of elite defense vs elite offense I feel offense will win most of those battles in high leverage moments. Remember its a freedom of movement era and defenders are already behind the 8 ball strategically with the rules favoring offensive players. Skim this article when you get the chance: https://theathletic.com/2364266/2021/02/04/nba-free-agency-why-elite-defenders-struggle-to-get-paid/
I don't mind having as many skilled players that can score, pass and shoot.... it is part of the success of Golden State. My concern is that we are not going to have the defensive horses to win against elite teams.
The dude's got a medically significant sweating disorder that's a problem over the course of a college season and March Madness. How that projects to an 82-game season with playoffs presents a huge problem. He loses like 7 lbs. a game because of his sweating. I am a hard no on Paolo.
Yeah, thank goodness that rumored Sampson trade never went through. What would we have done with Dream, Drexler, and Jordan?
