https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ships-no-problem-paying-luxury-tax/344500002/ Important: This is from February 2018 https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sp...Rockets-Q-A-with-Jonathan-Feigen-13838545.php This is from THIS offseason The luxury tax line for the 2019-20 season is $132,627,000 As it stands right now, here are some scenarios: Scenario 1: Rockets do not use the rest of their MLE and either fill out the roster with minimum signings or just guarantee the guys they have Total Salary (projection): $130,379,720 Scenario 2: Rockets use a portion of the remaining MLE equivalent to the remainder of the T-MLE to sign one player to fill out the roster and let Shump sign elsewhere. Total Salary (projection): $130,953,720 Scenario 3: Rockets use the remainder of the NT-MLE to sign a player to fill out the roster (rest are either minimums or guys currently on roster) Total Salary: $134,513,720 TAX ALERT! I'm not going to bother with scenarios where they either re-sign Shump or SnT him elsewhere, because in those scenarios they will obviously be a tax team. Also, all of the above are projections and could fluctuate slightly. Edit Note: Also, if they sign a player with rest of MLE + BAE they clearly go over. Point of this thread is to show that they are right there at the tax line and it may be a realistic possibility that they try to duck it. So here's my question... Are the Rockets going to stay under the tax to start the 2019-20 season?
Forget what Morey said - Tilman explicitly is bragging about already being a championship contender and not being in the tax, two seconds after saying that he is worried about losing money. He's happy where we are and worried about "going from making money to losing money very quickly." There is no chance - ZERO - that the Rockets go into luxury tax territory. They will not use the NT-MLE or the BAE. Anything else from Morey is just spin.
Scenario 1, "maintain flexibility", Morey/Tilman will claim to be "aggressive" at the deadline, "no moves materialized" or "someone pulled out last minute", and LTS will win again.
For me it's simple, if it's worth it (i.e there's a good player worth the money or a trade available that make us better) yes, otherwise no. And i'm fine with that, no point in paying the tax to get a player who's not going to make any difference but just add depth, you can do that with vet minimum guys too.
I've been one of the minority who has defended Tilman for the most part. I don't like what he did last season, but i understand it. Save a little now to save a ton a few years down the line. If this team chooses to hard cap itself over a mediocre role player, conveniently avoiding the LT, then we will have final confirmation of Fertita's willingness to spend. Scenario 3 is absolutely what we should do, but I don't think we will. i really hope I'm wrong.
as i've been arguing about in the flexibility thread. i predict we will unfortunately only sign minimum contracts for here on out and avoid the tax again. make profit 1st, win 2nd.
we should be demanding that tilman go into the tax this year . Not because it will give us that much better of a roster , but on principle alone THe moves we made at the deadline last year were to get us under the tax . The reasoning behind this was that we wanted to avoid the repeater tax . If we don't go into the tax this year , the repeater was never a concern .... and we threw away assets and passed up a chance to help harden in a season where he gave us his all .
The whole we paid tax "if I believe it would make us a title contender" thing is a weasel sentence designed for plausible deniability. When Tilman ends up not spending any money and dodge the tax again, he will come out and say "I would have spent the money if Morey found the right player who is worth getting into the tax for"-- knowing full well this would have meant a top level guy willing to take the rest of the MLE and this was never gonna happen. And then Tilman will bitterly complain about how nobody is talking about his 767.
We encounter the scenario of not paying for player X to maintain the flexibility of *an opportunity* to add a player that *might never be added.* There is an an opportunity cost here. At some point, just take the bird in the hand and march forward.
I could be wrong and will gladly admit it, but all signs point to Tilman being a freaking billionaire used car salesman type liar. He always talks big when no talking is ever required, cuts costs to the detriment of the product, and forces his main employee to spin. I'm glad he's not Dolan, but he's been a damn disappointment since he bought the team.
Probably start the year over the tax but end the year under the tax. Then Tilman will once again claim that he is totally willing to pay the tax but the Rockets somehow accidentally got under the tax (after using picks to facilitate salary dumps).
