Sonny Gray or anyone worse are not attractive options to me. If you can sniff a Jake deGrom well that's another story, but for now I'm sticking to my stance that perennial competitiveness beats going for it all in one offseason. The Cards of the 00's are the best example of how to do it: they won it all in 2006 and 2011, but had arguably better teams in the other years in between. What did not change was that every year they were good. The playoffs are mostly random for every team involved; anyone can catch fire at the right time. So we would be best served to put ourselves in position to stay competitive, with a constant influx of top-25 caliber prospects making their debuts on an annual basis. That way you reset the clock on how long it will be before you have to either start paying your players or letting them go. Those late-90's Astros stayed competitive, but we never won for two reasons: 1. Drayton McLane was so penny-pinching that we couldn't even keep our CORE guys like Caminiti, Luis Gonzalez, Darryl Kile, Mike Hampton, Billy Wagner, etc etc. With Jim Crane you would hope for better. 2. For what it was worth, Biggio and Bagwell had a bad start to playoff performances and let it get in their head for the rest of their careers. It wasn't until the onus was no longer on them and instead on guys like Berkman, Beltran (yes only one offseason but how glorious it was), Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt that we started to actually live up to our regular seasons. With the current Astros, they are so young that you have no idea how they'll do. If they hit, then we win. If they don't then we won't. I'm not so sure upgrading Morton/Peacock/Fiers into a Sonny Gray is going to push us over any kind of hump. Instead I'd like to see that money earmarked for the future, to keep Correa/Altuve/Springer intact as long as possible.
Wasn't 2015 the year where we were supposed to be fine with making the playoffs? This year is the year where we really go after winning the World Series. Even if we hadn't made the playoffs in '15... with this good of a team you don't just stand pat at the deadline because you're comfortable just making the playoffs.
If I could go back in time, I'd make the Sale trade for whatever it took (especially given Boston got him). At the time, there were questions about Yuli. Nobody could have expected Marwin to suddenly break out.
A's are banking on 2 more good outings for Gray to up the price before the deadline. He has looked much better in the last 3 outings. Pay close attention to his game against the Rays this afternoon.
I'm all for going after it this year, but the players we have now are outperforming anyone we can get. So stay the course. Try to win it with what we got. If we fail, then we upgrade next year.
I would LOVE to see us go after Michael Fullmer and Justin Wilson from the Tigers. I've heard they may deal Fullmer if they can shed payroll (Zimmerman). Fullmer would be a definitive top of rotation starter and he's cheap and under club control for several more years.
So you don't think we can get it done with that we have? I'm optimistic about this team. Let's test run it. This team hasn't even been given a chance to run with what we have.
This. There are a lot of variables in baseball (especially the last 10-15 years). You cannot go into a season and think you are guaranteed 100 wins and a trip to the WS, and continued improvement. You strike when the iron is hot, but there has to be something worth pursuing. It appears that a #2-3 starter is the best that will be available, but there WILL be bullpen arms available like Britton and Wilson and possibly more that would likely make a tangible difference and the Astros need to go after them. Hell, I wasn't really happy the Astros passed on JD Martinez when I saw how little he fetched the Tigers. He is an upgrade over Beltran and with Correa out for 2 months, we could have used his bat down the stretch. Don't be stupid...... but maximize you chances while the team is playing very well.
Heading into the season that may have been the thought, but currently anything short of a WS would be disappointing at this point. I am of the mindset that we could get it done as currently constructed though. I would love to add pitching, but again I have no interest in giving up Bregman or Tucker.
Absolutely. I was a huge Sale proponent, but at the time, I understood not paying that "high" price. It turns out, the Red Sox kind of knew what they were doing. A package headlined by Bregman and Martes would have done the trick, but again, even though I wanted Sale, it would have been hard for me to pull the trigger on that deal. Hindsight being 20/20, it turns out Marwin is a beast, and would be more than capable as our everyday 3B. Oh well, I don't necessarily blame the front office at all (because even I would have hesitated), but that would have paid out some really nice dividends.
You should actually remember the game, vs going only to the box score. Aaron Sele will haunt Mariners fans forever... and he was their #2 starter having a career year. Track records matter.
So, are you saying had they not made the moves they did in 2015, they would have been better? Health is everything... Sonny Gray, or whoever, would provide a reliable possible starter in case one of the DL-occupying starting pitchers (Dallas, LMJ, McHugh, Morton) happens to find their way there again. People also worry about Sonny Gray's last few years before this one... what about Peacock's few years before this? Yes, he's looking tremendous right now and made all sorts of adjustments. Are we ready to declare him fixed for good, like we are about Fiers from earlier in the year? Its about having as many healthy starting pitchers, who can pitch well now, as possible. If they acquire somebody... and he's no better than what they have with everybody healthy, great. If he fills a needed role when somebody goes down to injury (or somebody is ineffective after injury), great. Going into the season, I thought they needed more pitching help in case Keuchel, LMJ, or Morton succumbed to injury. Going into the playoffs, I feel the same way... especially since all three have been injured. But yes, Peacock continuing to look very good can eliminate some of that concern... but he very well could be prone to a slump at some point this year that erases any good feelings everybody who's pulled a 180 on him have right now.
His "OK" year has been better than Fiers', and specifically, since the start of June, he's been 2015-level good. He was hurt last year and to start this year. Healthy, he's a TOR with a MUCH better track record than either Fiers or Peacock. (Or, frankly, McCullers or Morton.) There isn't a manager in baseball that would take Fiers or Peacock over Gray in game 3. And if McCullers doesn't settle down, Gray might very well be starting game 2. Granted, with health being a concern, I get he could be considered a risk. But, unlike Keuchel and McHugh, Gray IS healthy right now and hasn't missed a start this year.
Trust my memory from 16 years ago, or trust the numbers of what happened? I'd rather not Aaron Sele doesn't haunt fans. Even if they made a move for a pitcher, it would have been at the expense of Paul Abbott who gave them 5 shutout innings. They lost because they couldn't hit. Yes they fell apart in game 5. That happens when you have huge expectations and find yourself down 3-1 and things start snowballing.
IT's funny how ppl keep bringing up how Gray was bad last year and even tho he was an ace 2 years ago that's too far. Yet looking at Morton/Fiers/Peacock all they want to look at is this past month and how elite they are... Sounds fair. Even tho if you only look at the past month for Gray it's pretty impressive.
You do realize that if we traded the ENTIRE FARM, we would still have almost this exact team until 2020... And that is saying Lunhow doesnt replace anyone in the farm during those years (even though he has shown to be EXCELLENT at finding talent almost every year). Last year it was Bregman untouchable, this year it's Tucker... Next year there will be someone. We are not a team that is done after this year and needs a farm to replenish, we are a YOUNG TEAM. We should worry about replenishing the farm for the next 3 years instead of worrying about replenishing the big league team IN 3 years from now..
Had we not made the moves in 2015 would we have been better? Probably about the same. Fiers good, Gomez bad. But Sonny Gray is damaged good like all the others. Gray's advanced numbers suggested his ERA was better than he actually was. I think he is a 3.5 ERA pitcher, which I'd gladly take, but not somebody who is substantially better and I have concerns he'll be hurt again. I actually like the time missed by our guys. It has given experience to other players and I think they will be fresher for their postseason run.
Did you watch him in the ALDS? Will there ever be enough data out there to show that there is some inherent differences (whether its leverage, pressure, the pacing, the bright lights, packed houses, whatever) that makes certain players rise up and certain players regress? I presume not.
