We're a GREAT regular season team, but are already seeing the signs....

So what you're saying is....

Yule C?

 

not saying these issues aren't real, but don't forget how well dekker and harrell squared up against durant. let's reassess how good we are ~actually~ after the raptors game tomorrow.

 

Have you even watched a game this year?

 

There are luck, matchups, bad injuries involved in the playoffs. And of course higher intensity, slower pace, clogging the lane to defend.

 

This is true. In fact, the 2 games we've lost in our last 20 have been against teams that have done just that. However, consider:

1) There are probably 2 out of 29 opponents who have that exact combination of players you described. Also keep in mind those two teams have ANOTHER type of player that is absolutely required: an all-time historically great perimeter defender (Tony Allen, Kawhi Leonard). If you have those 4 pieces, then yeah, you're probably an amazing team. Elite perimeter defender, elite PG, two bigs that can score and at least one of whom that can pass. Damn.

2) The Grizzlies did not beat us when Randolph and Gasol were on the floor together, which barely happened in that game. Nor did Aldridge and Gasol win that game San Antonio were lucky to win. The last time we lost facing that strategy was in November. In the Mem/Sa losses, it's their perimeter players who heated up. If the Grizzlies need Vince Carter and James Ennis to catch fire, I'll take it. If the Spurs need to make up a ten point deficit in a few minutes with Ginobili and Mills on fire just to win their 2nd out of 3 games against us, again I'll take it. I don't think the Cavs or Warriors would fare significantly better than us on those nights.

3) When you go with 2 bigs, we will destroy you on the other side of the ball. What you've described is how to score efficiently on a Rockets top 10-15 defense. We are a better offensive team than defensive. We are 18-2 in our last 20 and it hasn't been a particularly easy schedule. If there was an easy way to beat the Rockets, we wouldn't have won 18 of our last 20 even if we only played the 20 worst teams in the league.

I find the teams that have done best to slow us down offensively are the ones who have guarded the hell out of the 3pt line with a very active 4 and a good shot blocker at C.

But again if you think about how few teams are able to effectively execute the strategies we're talking about, you start realize we are damn good. The elite level of defensive or offensive production required to beat us is almost as difficult to achieve as what you would need to beat GS or CLE and that's awesome.

 

Is the pace really slower in the playoffs? I know that's a common thought, but so too was "refs swallow the whistles in the playoffs" before it was debunked by someone actually researching it.

I just wonder if we have any data to backup the claim that pace slows in the playoffs.

 

I doubt any of of us have grand delusions this style will deliver a title, given Cleveland and Golden St are simply too talented, but this team is moving us toward it by;

1. attracting free agents with style of play
2. attracting free agents with happiness
3. Reestablishing Harden's street cred
4. attracting free agents with statistics
5. attracting free agents with winning
6. Evolving Harden into a passer

Harden will be up for awards which should keep him around for the long haul. I think what we are doing is keeping everyone engaged in a thinking about a title run, evolving our players toward it, and the fans are entertained. It's all good right now. Coming in third is ok. Coming in 16th is not. We are building toward something now and on the rise. Question is, will we leap toward it before stalling out.

 

According to basketball-reference.com (NBA league avg)
..............................Pace regular season..............................Pace post season...............................
12/13...............................92.0.......................................................89.5............................................
13/14...............................93.9.......................................................90.6............................................
14/15...............................93.9.......................................................94.4.(teams adjusting to GSW)..
15/16...............................95.8.......................................................93.0...........................................
16/17...............................96.2.........................................................?...(pending)............................

13/14 & 14/15 regular season Pace was identical. I checked it 3 times.
In 14/15 teams like Memphis tried heavy dosage of post ups vs GSW while other teams
tried different things like different lineups of all big to all small. Hand full of teams in 14/15
switched defensively predominantly in PO...Warriors, Boston, Bucks, Houston, Cavs were some.
Now many more teams switch defensively as an adjustment.

 

Teams like GSW and the former Suns did fasten the pace in the playoffs.

Popovich made the Suns' life miserable and play down to their standard and pace.

I am too lazy to go through the stats, but there seems to be 20%-30% of blowouts or clear wins and 70 or 80% close games.

 

You have one good point.

 

Not that Daywalker02 was referring to Suns teams of:
Year.............................Pace Reg season......................................................Pace in PO's...........
03/04...w/Frank Johnson...........92.6.....................................................................88.4.............
04/05...w/D'Ant as HC.....(1st)...95.9..(Amar'e/Matrix high usg at C & PF)........89.3................
05/06.............".................(1st)...95.8...(Amar'e/Kurt Thomas at center).............89.2...............
06/07.............".................(3rd)...95.6....(""/ Kurt Thomas 6'9" center).................89.5...............
07/08.............".................(4th)....96.7.....(w/Shaq x 28 games)............................88.0...............
08/09.....w/Porter............(4th)....96.0.....(Shaq x 75 games)................................87.7...............

Houston 15/16.................(7th)...97.6...................................................................,94.4..............
Houston 16/17.................(4th)...98.2.....................................................................?..(pending)..
per basketball-reference.com

 

Apparently you can't win with him as the second fiddle, either.

 

It was clearly a problem when Capela was healthy and starting. The Rockets bigs are just poor on defensive rebounding and rim protection.

 

I don't see how a C from a weak league. Who gets dominated, and overpowered by Shavlik Randolph, contributes to a NBA team.

 

So are they looking to get Nerlens from the Sixers?

 

Rockets are happy with his health either.

 

I was having fun responding to the picture posted of him.

 

Yes, the game has evolved and changed esp in the past three seasons. There are significantly more good three point shooters shooting threes way beyond the arc. It is the new norm, it thus has opened up the middle and become increasingly challenging for the defenders. In the old days, ten rebounds advantage roughly translates to ten points. Not anymore.

 

This isn't football, teams know what every team wants to do pretty much. The goal is to try and prevent it while they try and execute it, whilst the rules favour the offense.

 

My biggest concern for the playoff, is that our shooters will choke from perimeter when the defense of playoff games getting more tense, and meanwhile Harden’s turnover even gets higher in this situation.

it reminds me very much the seaon 06-07 when the X-factor Luther Head choked from everywhere. In the regular season, L Head is a very important backup SG for T-Mac and fulfilled his job pretty well in regular. But in the playoff, he just could not make a single ball.

in this case, I am more worried about E Gordon and R Anderson, and Yes Ariza...
It is gonna kill us, when we can’t shoot the ball and keeps turning the ball over.