What even has to happen? I know the Steelers would have to lose against Ravens tomorrow, resulting a 3 way tie between PIT, BAL and HOU (all 9-6). And the I guess both PIT and BAL would have to lose in week 17, while we beat the Titans? Do we own a tiebreaker over either team, at the moment?
Billy O' doesn't have that mind set to win the 3rd seed. He will likely rest the starters next week, and just play it like is a preseason game.
Two Clubs Tiebreakers: 1. Head-to-head, if applicable. 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. 4. Strength of victory. 5. Strength of schedule. 6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best net points in conference games. 9. Best net points in all games. 10. Best net touchdowns in all games. 11. Coin toss. I believe that PIT would own the tiebreaker at #4, and BAL would own the tiebreaker at #2. The only scenario that would work is if BAL beats PIT, and then they both lose next week (to CIN and CLE). That would make BAL the division winner and we would win the #3 tiebreaker against BAL.
If we are #4 and by some miracle won in the wildcard round, then we would have to hope PIT/BAL lose to the 6th seed so we would play OAK instead of NE in the divisional round.
They would need to win against Tennessee and then hope Baltimore wins tomorrow against Pitt. And then hope that the Bengals beat the Ravens in week 17. That would give them the #3 seed. Texans own the tiebreaker over Pitt. They would just need Balt to beat Pitt tomorrow and then hope Balt loses week 17. Regardless of what Pitt does in Week 17, Texans would be the 3 seed if they win week 17 and balt loses.
Actually if KC wins out and Oakland loses in the final week wouldn't we face Oakland in the wild card round if we stay at #4? Give me the raiders. The only downside is we'd get literally creamed by New England.
I want the raiders. They're not a good team without Carr. They're a bad team being carried by a great quarterback. They're like the 2011 colts without manning.
the road to #3 seed and best schedule beyond (that I can figure out) using: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine (home teams underlined) week 16: baltimore over pittsburgh, KC over broncos week 17: texans over titans, new england over dolphins, bengals over baltimore, chargers over KC this leaves #2 Oak #3 HOU, #4 pitts, #5 KC, and #6 MIA this hopefully leaves us to beat Miami and then Oakland in the first 2 rounds. given injuries to Carr and Mariota not too bad. the hardest games for this to happen that I see are todays Baltimore win and next week: bengals and chargers- both are at home but against better teams - so hard to say
Chargers are irrelevant to us getting the 3 seed. Only team we need to focus on is the ravens. If they beat the steelers today (ravens have won the last 5 meetings) and then next week they lose to the bengals then the texans get the 3 seed provided they beat the Titans.
yes but if chargers beat KC, then we would get Oakland second round. if KC wins we have to go to KC. and with Carr out I choose oakland
Haha, misunderstood your post. For some reason I thought you were referring to Oakland winning a wildcard game. Good old pronouns.
On one hand we can stay 4 and play Oakland in round 1. We'd have a strong chance of beating them but then have no chance of beating new England. If we get #3, we'd have a decent chance at beating Miami and a slim chance of beating KC. There are silver linings to either scenario.
I'd rather play Oakland in round 1 and lose to NE than any alternate scenario, because I'm pretty confident we can beat Oakland, whereas I don't have that confidence with any other team. Plus, in the end, the road goes through NE, so we are toast regardless.