Daryl Denying Dwight, Analytics, and the Hard-Headedness of Dwight Regarding PnR vs Post-Up

Yep, i'd say he ends up with something similar to his corrent contract, maybe in the range of 18/22...will be interesting to see if there's going to be a bid war for between multiple teams for him or only a couple of teams will be in play.

As today i'd say these teams can all be in play for what we know:

- Atlanta: home town, true that he doesn't fit well in Bud system, but as today we don't know if Bud is staying and if Horford is staying, so it's possible they change coach, that they lose their current center...

- Boston: i can still see them interested in Dwight if Ainge can somehow trad for an all star like Butler and acquire another top free agent.

- Charlotte: obvious reasons.

- Chicago: if Pau and Noah are leaving (like i think) they'll be at a crossroad, trad Butler and rebuild or try to stay in the mix, if they opt for the second i'd say Dwight may be one of the few big names interested in play for the Bulls as today, big market...

- Indiana: not sure Bird likes him but, not a free agent destination and they may lose Mahinmi, in this case i'm not sure they're ok in going into the season with Turner as starting center...maybe/probably yes but...

- Miami: if they lose Whiteside and can't sign Horford i think Dwight can be on their radar, Dragic, Wade, Winslow, Bosh, Dwight would be pretty good (if healty) in east.

- Milwaukee: obvious reasons.

- New York: personally i don't see him end up here but some rumors said they have interest...meh, whatever...

- Orlando: from latest rumors it seems they have no interest but, this will be a good move for polish his brand etc...

- Dallas: obvious reasons.

- Portland: obvious reasons.

- Phoenix: not sure they'll be in the mix, maybe if they can trade Chandler...


So yeah, there're a lot of obvious and potentially interested teams out there

 

Not at or above 20m, I'll bet.

DD

 

Not sure DD, a lot of decent to good teams will have a ton of cap space, and there aren't enough players for all those teams so, i think someone (especially between those with bad history in acquiring free agents) will eventually bite and overpay (which to me in this case is a 20x or more)...he really needs only a couple of teams interested in him...

 

Agreed! I made a thread about Harden never having a true #2.

 

What part did you miss? When Morey said "at this point in your career a light bulb should went off.

 

Biyombo is a beast man

 

salary is the keyword here

 

Unless there's a tremendous change in the market Dwight is going to opt in. He can easily go get 2/30 next summer provided he doesn't suffer a career ending injury. That means he's going to have to be promised at least 3/54 for him to opt out. And nobody is willing to promise his agent they'll offer that much this summer. He's a second tier free agent.

If he opts in its going to be difficult to find a team that will just "take him in to their cap space". They're going to want to dump salary most likely because a trade of Dwight will only likely happen after teams have made their other free agent moves. Not to mention Dwight on an expiring deal will likely have to approve the trade destination since no one wants to trade for him only to discover he doesn't want to be there.

There's not a big market for Dwight right now. We need to convince him not to opt in by agreeing to pay him 3/60. Then have him sign a 1-10 or 1-15 deal with a promise we'll offer him at least 2-50 or 2-44 next summer.

 

Even Josh Smith and Michael roll more than Dwight (12-13% freq.), and they both suck at it (0.65 PPG, lower 5% percentile of the league)

 

That's not necessarily true. They could trade for him to meet minimum salary reqs this year - then let him walk next year when cap jumps again and have loads of space to (again) chase top FA's.

 

Teams value their cap space. They're not going to trade for him to meet minimum salary requirements without acquiring an asset. Trading Dwight on a $23 million expiring deal is going to be very difficult. He has little to no trade value in that scenario.

 

I'm confused. Do you want him back or not?

 

I would normally agree, but this is a year when 2/3 of the teams will have over $20mm in cap space and not enough good players to spend it on. There will be a team that will be willing to take Dwight on a full 1 year basis at $23mm, particularly in the east where they think a very good center (which he still is, he's just not dominant) would put them in the playoffs or to the 4-5 spot, and roll the next year if he walks or resign him. From dwight's perspective he's better off on the last year elsewhere that will emphasize his strengths which is not happening with the rockets. I think Dwight will get $20mm on at least a three year contract. Alternatively even if he opts in I think they rockets can trade him at minimal cost and still have cap space to maneuver. When is the opt in time again? Is it in advance of the start of free agency?

 

PT Barnum was right although I prefer the Murphy's Law that states "It's morally wrong to allow suckers to keep their money".

 

Doesn't matter what I want. Doesn't matter what the Rockets want. The man is holding a $23 million option. What matters is how can we best build the team for another season.

What I think is best here is to get Dwight not to opt in. Which is what the Rockets want. But they want to ditch him altogether. That's why they've been crapping on him repeatedly.

I don't think that's wise given the fact that he holds a $23 million option. And if something doesn't change with Dwight's market we're going to find out just how stupid we've been in dealing with Dwight.

I want him to not opt in after agreeing to not opt in knowing we are going to make sure he gets $60 million over the next 3 seasons (or whatever the figure is that will get him to not opt in.)

Once we entice him to not opt in by telling him we will offer him $60 million over 3 seasons then he can explore free agency and sign elsewhere if he wants and we can reclaim our capspace.

Or if nobody else wants him for more money then he can come back to us for the money we told him we'd offer him. Then we get him to sign for 1 year $10 million. We're can then offer him 2 years $50 million next summer.

But several things happen in this scenario.

1. You get buy-in from Dwight. He agrees to play like we want him to play and he understands how we're going to play.

2. You get Dwight on a budget deal for one season which allows you to go after two other max free agents.

3. You get to pursue free agents without having to worry his you're going to build a base defense. You've got your defensive base in place.

4. You've got Dwight on a $15 million cap hold for next summer which will be an incredible help going into free agency.



By the way, this is possible and legal and it happens all the time. Dwight's agent has already scoured the league to determined Dwight's free agent market this summer......which is why he's trying to negotiate a deal with the Rockets now. The problem with my scenario is the organization may have violated trust with Dwight by basically dumping him to role player status a year and a half into his deal so he may not be willing to accept a 1-year deal in lieu of being free next summer for a budget deal. He may just prefer to take his opt in, play out next season doing his thing, and line himself up a fresh contract next summer.

 

Dwight on a one year contract for 23 million is actually not bad at all the only issue would be compensation if you are willing to trade him for next to nothing then it will be easy.

 

Dwight received 0 votes for all-nba defensive team. We are paying him over $ 20 million to basically grab some rebounds and do nothing else productive on both ends of the floor. Easily the most overrated, overpaid player in the league right now. Dwight has the biggest disparity between the name recognition (superstar) and actual level of performance (role player).

 

http://hoopshype.com/2016/05/26/jason-terry-dwight-howard-not-a-lock-to-leave-houston/

Rockets guard Jason Terry is not convinced former All-Star center Dwight Howard is done in Houston

“I wouldn’t rule (a return) out,” Terry said in an interview with Justin Termine and Eddie Johnson on SiriusXM NBA Radio. “He has yet to opt out. Again, it’s just going to depend on if you get the right coach in there. At this point in his career, he’s not going to be the focal point offensively. They’ve made that clear. He’s gonna have to, if he remains in Houston, buy into the role fully, commit himself to setting screens, rebounding, running the floor, blocking shots and working on his free throws, obviously.”

Howard, who has a player option on his contract for $23.3 million, finished the season with an average of 13.7 ppg, his worst mark since his rookie year. He’s currently at No. 8 in our free agent rankings.

 

and the damage control has begun - using terry as a conduit

life's a b when you kill your open market value by slacking off during the season because you don't like your role and compound this pathetic indiscretion by admitting to it and pouting in post season interviews