Thanks. Always appreciate your updates. I boldly predict that soon we will close out the Kings and proudly seal the 10th place.
Sorry for the break—I was away for the last week. Now I'm back and ready for the season finale, should be exciting... -------------------------------------------------------------------- Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB Tiebreak Number Diff 5 Grizzlies 41-36 2-8 2-2 None T 7-8 W 25-23 W Yes 9 (-6) 6 Blazers 41-37 6-4 2-2 None T 26-22 L No 8 (-3) 7 Mavericks 39-38 5-5 2-1 1A W 5-8 W 24-23 W Yes 7 (-2) 8 Jazz 39-38 7-3 2-2 None T 23-24 W Yes 7 (-3) 9 Rockets 38-39 4-6 8-7 25-22 * Indicates the Tie Break is final Clinched the #9 seed Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on 4/3. With the Mavericks getting a huge boost by J.J. Barea to get back on track and the Jazz also winning, the Rockets dropped out of the playoff picture. Therefore, last night's win was much needed. The Rockets were not the first team to capitalize on the Thunder's fourth quarter woes, but that doesn't take anything away from the importance of last night's win. However, if you want to call one single game a do-or-die game, it has to be Wednesday's matchup in Dallas. Win, and the Magic Number drops to 4, and the Rockets can control their playoff participation. Lose, and it gets really, really difficult. The NBA takes a breather today to give the NCAA championship all the spotlight. If I have time, I might take a closer look at the remaining schedules and potential three-way tiebreakers for the teams fighting for the playoff spots.
For those interested in three-way tiebreakers, just look at the lower part of this post. ---------------------------------- Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB Tiebreak Number Diff 5 Grizzlies 42-36 3-7 2-2 None T 7-8 W 25-23 W Yes 9 6 Blazers 42-37 7-3 2-2 None T 27-22 L No 8 7 Mavericks 39-38 5-5 2-1 1A W 5-8 W 24-23 W Yes 7 8 Jazz 39-39 6-4 2-2 None T 23-25 W Yes 6 (-1) 9 Rockets 38-39 4-6 8-7 25-22 * Indicates the Tie Break is final Clinched the #9 seed Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on 4/5. Fifth and sixth seed pull away Come on, Bulls. Losing 92-108 against a team that starts Chris Andersen and Jordan Farmar? That's bad. Of course, you have to give credit to the Grizzlies who keep fighting despite having their season ruined by injuries. Once again, it was the starting backcourt of Lillard (22 PTS) and McCollum (30 PTS) that led the Trail Blazers in scoring, but the standout performer in their 115-107 victory in Sacramento was Maurice Harkless with 20 and 16, including 7 offensive rebounds. This offensive rebounding strength (19 to 3) gave Portland the edge over a Kings team that was led by an impressive 27/10/12 triple-double by Rajon Rondo. It gets closer San Antonio has found its go-to-crunchtime-play for the next six years: Just throw it to Kawhi Leonard. He took care of business and secured his team an 88-86 win in Utah. The Jazz drop to 39-39. Wednesday games Thunder at Trail Blazers, Rockets at Mavericks HUGE game. If the Rockets win, there will be a three-way tie with Utah, Dallas and Houston. ------------------------------------- Three-way tiebreakers Rules: Spoiler (1) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams. (2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if all tied teams are in the same division). (3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference. (4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position). (5) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents ("point differential"). Remaining schedules: Spoiler I do not include the Trail Blazers, as I doubt that they'll be part of this mess. Not dependent on Rockets-Dallas tonight: Rockets-Jazz-Grizzlies: Rockets head-to-head against these teams: 4-4; Utah is 4-3; Grizzlies are 3-4. 1. Jazz 2. Rockets 3. Grizzlies If the Rockets win in Dallas tonight: Rockets-Mavericks-Jazz: The Rockets would have this tiebreaker in the bag. Their combined 5-3 record against Dallas and Utah would be the best in the group (Dallas would be 3-4 or 2-5; Utah would be 4-3 or 3-4, depending on the outcome of their remaining matchup). 1. Rockets 2. Mavericks/Jazz 3. Mavericks/Jazz Rockets-Mavericks-Grizzlies: Rockets win, they win this tiebreaker as well: They will be 5-3; Mavericks will be 3-5 or 4-4; Grizzlies will be 3-5 or 4-4. 1. Rockets 2. Mavericks/Grizzlies 3. Mavericks/Grizzlies If the Rockets lose in Dallas tonight: Rockets-Mavericks-Jazz: The Rockets will be second in the three team tiebreaker, as they will be 4-4, while one of the Mavericks and Jazz will be 4-3 and 3-4 respectively. 1. Mavericks/Jazz 2. Rockets 3. Mavericks/Jazz Rockets-Mavericks-Grizzlies: The Rockets will be 4-4, Dallas 4-4 or 5-3, Memphis 3-5 or 4-4. If Dallas wins against Memphis: 1. Mavericks 2. Rockets 3. Grizzlies If Dallas loses, everyone is 4-4 and the record against the division counts: Houston 8-8, Dallas 7-9 or 6-10, Memphis 8-8. So Dallas is last, while the simple tiebreaker between Houston and Memphis will decide, probably the conference record (if that's not enough, we have to look at the record against Western playoff teams). 1. Rockets/Grizzlies 2. Rockets/Grizzlies 3. Mavericks
Thanks Try I appreciate the info. It looks like the Rockets are in good shape with the tie breakers. I wonder what happened in a four way ties. It is possible and that's my prediction at 42-40 each.
Breakdown of head to head records for all 4 teams: R 2 M 1 R 2 G 2 R 2 J 2 Record 6 5 M 1 R 2 M 2 G 1 M 1 J 1 Record 4 4 G 2 R 2 G 1 M 2 G 1 J 2 Record 4 6 J 2 R 2 J 1 M 1 J 2 G 1 Record 5 4
Basically we're not catching the Blazers. Their win last night all but cements that. Even if they lose to OKC tonight, they'll win their remaining 2 games. Memphis is still doable. They could easily lose all 4 of their remaining games assuming their opponents don't rest a bunch of players. The Spurs win over Utah was huge. Now we're tied in the loss column. At the moment, we control our destiny with them and Dallas. Win out and we finish no lower than 7th. And if Memphis loses just 3 of their 4 games, we catch them too and get the 6th seed. The problem of course is that requires the Rockets to win at Dallas tonight and in Minnesota in a few days. The Mavs have just as much on the line as us and the T'Wolves just beat the Warriors in Oakland, so they're no joke.
Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB Tiebreak Number Diff 5 Grizzlies 42-36 3-7 2-2 None T 7-8 W 25-23 T Yes 9 6 Blazers 43-37 7-3 2-2 None T 28-22 L No 8 7 Mavericks 40-38 6-4 2-2 None T 6-8 W 25-23 T Yes 7 8 Jazz 39-39 6-4 2-2 None T 23-25 W Yes 6 9 Rockets 38-40 4-6 8-8 25-23 * Indicates the Tie Break is final Clinched the #9 seed Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on 4/6. What a horrible game. I don't have anything else to say.
Grizzlies' magic number is practically 8. The only way they can win the TB over us is by winning a division game. But if they win a game, we can't catch them anyway. If they lose out and we win out, we'll win the TB.
The good news, if you want the Rockies to make the playoffs that is, in a two way tie with the Mavericks, the Rockets will win the tiebreaker due to better conference record. They would be tied head to head and have the same division record even if the Mavs beat the Spurs and the grizzlies.
I say the magic number should be dropped one for all the other teams too except the Blazers which should not have a magic number since we cannot catch them. Blazers already won 43 games and the best we can do is win 42 games
try, Can you explain what Feigen means here in terms of how many games we need to win? He makes it sound like we need to win all four. I guess he's talking likely scenarios. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Rockets win in Dallas, could win 3 of 4 and make playoffs. If lose, would need 4 wins; Mavs or Jazz to lose 1 plus gm against each other.</p>— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Feigen/status/717756017950351360">April 6, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Good observation, thank you. That's right, thanks. Great observation about the potential tiebreaker against the Mavericks as well. Looks like he talked about scenarios in which the Rockets can reach the playoffs without additional help by Dallas/Utah (so basically worst-case scenarios). If the Rockets had won today, they would have made the playoffs by winning 3 of their last 4, no matter what the other teams do. With today's loss, it gets more difficult. The Rockets don't have their destiny in their own hands anymore. Worst case: Utah beats Dallas, those two teams win all their other games (and Memphis wins at least one more), then Houston is definitely out. If Utah loses one and the Rockets win out, the Rockets are in.
Who holds the tiebreaker for the #12 pick--us or Wizards? I know that is against the spirit of the thread to ask. Apologies
