[Graphs] Rockets take good shots, just missing them

Exactly what I am thinking. Teams leave our 3pt shooters open in order to pack the paint to stop Harden's drives.

When they start hitting the open shots, they won't be that open anymore, and hopefully more open layups.

Also, poor defense translates into less fast break opportunities.

 

I don't think I've screamed more at the screen that I have in the stretch of games. It's not just the missed 3's we seem to be missing lay ups and dunks regularly. Even those little runners that Bev and Ariza used to hit fairly regularly aren't going down.

 

Honestly this is what i have seen all along this season. Our defense is awful that is absolutely true, but our offensive looks and shots taken are pretty darn good, our problem is that we are bricking shot after shot after shot after shot, its ****ing ridiculous!

We can blame Harden all we want for his constant defensive gaffes or that he doesn't score 40 points every night (LOL), we can blame the lack of chemistry, or that Lawson misses his tequila, or injuries, or that DM intervenes too much, or that JB is too inexperienced, or whatever else we want to come up with to justify this freaking mess, but the truth is that when we get good shot opportunities we are missing them one after the other and if the ball doesnt go into the basket you dont score points, its as simple as that.

 

This is what I was indicating, that the statistics are misleading because a.) we have the wrong guys taking the right shots, and b.) a set shot is better than a shot that was dribbled up to. In both instances the statistics indicate that the Rockets should be shooting better than they actually are, but they shouldn't. They actually are that bad.

 

We take "good" shots. We just don't have a good offensive system to hit them effectively

 

but what kind of offensive system do you need to hit open 3 point shots, layups and alley oops? If the Golden State Warriors had the same layups, 3 point shot opportunities and dunks we've had I'd venture to guess they'd make at least half of them...that goes for most of the teams out there in my opinion...including, OKC,SA,Mavericks, Clippers even along with the rest

 

We need more illegal screens! We need to embrace the GS philosophy, not reject it.

 

We illegal screen all the time. You should just say, we need more screens.

 

This needs to be normalized by player on like a 2 year average % or something, instead of being seemingly based on league average.

Brewer taking an open corner 3 is not 55% expected eFG like the rest of the league is, it's more like 30%. This chart doesn't account for that.

 

Ha! GSW have darn near perfected Morey Ball

 

Doesn't much matter, but it really annoys me that the axes on these graphs are different between X and Y. If they start at say 45% at the intersection and both axes increment up 1% at a time in a square graph, then you can draw a diagonal line and say everyone above the line is overachieving and everyone under it is underachieving. Don't know why they chose to show it the way they did.

Incidentally, it looks like the majority of teams underachieve the expected result. How are they calculating that again? Is it just that GSW is shooting so well, they skew the numbers for everyone else?

 

In some ways this could be good news for the Rockets and potentially bad news for the Dubs. The Rockets should expect a drastic increase in their FG% going forward if they keep taking good shots and the Dubs should expect a drastic decrease in their FG% going forward.

 

The illegal screens would be worthless to the Rockets as that would require an offense to have evolved, and to offer more motion and cutting and less ISO.

 

The illegal screens only work when players are hitting uncontested shots, so far this year, we aren't. In fact, we're getting better shots than the Dubs even with their illegal screens getting people open.....we just aren't making them.

 

part of it, not all.

sometimes i feel it's like egg and chicken thing...

 

Maybe our players just suck at shooting

 

yeah.

one thing that bothers me is we often times set a pick half-heartedly. the result is usually the ball circles around and returns to where it was a few seconds b4 the pick was set. and all of us think setting a good pick is a fundamental skill...

 

They don't suck as much as they have been sucking, they've gone above and beyond so far. We have guys that can't even make a damn layup so far this year and only one player is shooting at or above their career average from 3, and that's Terrence Jones who is more of a small sample sort of situation. The rest of the entire team is shooting significantly below their career averages from 3 despite a huge number of wide open attempts.

 

yes tho not drastic. (remember the efg% is calculated based on the average nba player and Curry is not an average shooter.) But yes the stats clearly show that a regression should be expected.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="el"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Quick and dirty calculations based on shot and defender distance, and yes, I do especially from 3. <a href="https://t.co/wlvuQxBRp6">https://t.co/wlvuQxBRp6</a></p>&mdash; Seth Partnow (@SethPartnow) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethPartnow/status/672202494190051328">Δεκέμβριος 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
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