Rockets should not draft a "centerpiece PG"

My thoughts on drafting a Kyrie Irving or other "centerpiece PG" is this...

So many teams have above average to great young PG's in the league now, and in doing so it has become even more important to have a good PG to be a contender in the NBA. Notice though I said a GOOD PG, not an elite PG.

Having said that, the NBA is all about match ups, having the best mis-match at a position that a team can to use to create points and/or stop the other team consistently throughout the game. Given the number of PG's I mentioned above, I would argue that a team building for a championship would be better served to have a cornerstone player who IS NOT a PG.

There are a few reasons I say this.

1. With so much PG talent in the NBA, only 1 or 2 of those PG's will rise to be elite players above the rest, meaning that is will be really risky to take a good talented PG and hope he will be better than all the others.

2. Even if you acquire one of those few elite PG's, since so many other PG's are very good, any one of them can have a great game, series, month, year and cancel out your elite PG's contributions.

3. Since so many PG's are very good, but play varying styles, even an above average PG today is more likely to have a few bad match ups with other above average PG's, which would again cancel out their impact for their team.

So with so many good PG's available, the cost-effective move would be to get and 2nd tier or 3rd tier PG. One who is very good, nearly complete, and at times can have great games or weeks, but not the main player your team relies on.

A perfect example of this would be the Championship teams of from the late 80's to mid/late-90's.

Spoiler

Many people refer to this time period as the Era of the Big Man with teams trying to build contenders around Kareem, Hakeem, Ewing, Mourning, Deke, Robinson, Sampson, Sabonis, Divac, Kemp, Malone, Rik Smits, Chris Webber, Shaq, etc. (And that is not even including all the busts like Bowie, Coleman, Baker, etc.)

However, only 2 of these above average to great big men won a title-Hakeem & Kareem. Both of whom are of the most gifted, most complete centers (and maybe players) of that era and, and easily in the conversation of the best center/post players of all time. (Furthermore, Kareem teams could be arguably have been led by more by Magic.)

So who were big men on the championship teams? Bill Laimbeer, Dennis Rodman, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, an old & fragile Bill Walton, James Worthy, Horace Grant, Bill Cartwright, Luc Longley.

Now, of course some of those players are great players, in the Hall-of-Fame, and were on the Top 50 All time Greats list. But they were never great foundations or centerpieces. They were great sidekicks-the perfect complement star or role player. If their team's star player (Magic, Bird, Isiah, Jordan), had never played for their team those players may never have had the amounted the regular season and playoff success they did and been considered for those awards. Especially, given all the talent at the time in the front court I mentioned earlier.

Once most of those talented big men aged and retired, the ones left (Shaq & Duncan/Robinson), now possessed the greatest mis-matches at a position that no longer had a great deal of depth and used those centerpieces to win championships.

So my end argument is simply this, any team (like the Rockets) now looking to reload/rebuild would be better off searching for a potential elite SG/SF/PF/C.

I believe that this is due to the lack of quality depth at these positions (I realize that this statement is very flimsy because many of the "future" superstars at these positions are extremely raw at the moment, so it is currently unclear if one of these positions will later prove to be deep.), as well as due to the fact that many of the current "elite" players will be past their prime once the Rockets would be aiming to be contenders.

 

To be honest, I first think there will be a lockout next year for at least part of the season. In that event, I can easily see a number of the top draft picks not opting out for the Draft. If seems to be more and more likely, the Rockets should trade the Knicks/Rockets swap pick asap for a solid player or a future high 1st round pick or whatever, because that would likely be the best type of player they could expect to draft.

Having said that I would say the the top players right now are still Perry Jones and Harrison Barnes.

I was skeptical of Perry Jones and his drive, but so far he has not shown any character issues. With Dunn on the team though, he does not have to create or close though, which are talents you want from your elite swingman, so it will take more games to see.

Barnes falling in the draft rankings are exactly what I wanted, so that he could possibly be drafted at a Rocket's pick. I know he is struggling, but that whole team is really struggling right now. He has the drive and smarts and all the measurable, he just has to put them together. When you are gunning for a elite player, you have to take the risk that he does. He has also continually played the "I won't be a 1-and-done player" game as well. No one knows if he means it, but it is possible he may not come out in 2011 especially if there is a lock out.

Terrence Jones has also been impressive. He has by no means shown he will be a elite player yet, but he could move into the category. He has tried to be an all around player, filling up the stat sheet, and at times showing he is clutch. He has had help from Knight taking some pressure off and Kentucky's style of play, and he needs adding some range to his shot or a better mid range game with more consistent defense. However, he can I could see him being an elite player.

Sullinger and Kanter are both very good players and elite scorers in college. However, I have mentioned in other threads that an elite cornerstone big man HAS to have an elite defensive presence in today's NBA, and neither have shown that. Scouts say that Kanter is adequate on defense, but there needs to be more evidence to show what that means and if he can improve it.