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Yordan Alvarez's potential?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by rockbox, Jul 7, 2019.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Yup, that is assuming you believe WAR is the end all - be all statistic.

    I think it is important, but I do not believe it is the only measure.
     
  2. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    It was more of a quick measuring stick. He'd have to post even more ridiculous numbers to inch past his own teammates, let alone Trout.
     
  3. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    What do you think is a better all encompassing stat?
     
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  4. bobrek

    bobrek Not a liberal, regardless of my posts
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    My main problem with WAR is that Mike Minor is above Verlander and Cole is 7th behind notables such as Minor and Lance Lynn. Not to take away from their seasons, but....

    And I understand that they take into account the park and how the defense plays, but....
     
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  5. bobrek

    bobrek Not a liberal, regardless of my posts
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    double post
     
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    War is far from perfect due to fairly subjective inputs on positional value and park factors. But for now I do think it’s the best single metric for measuring a single player’s overall value. However, I do think it’s analysis should be limited to grouping players with large samples into tiers; I don’t think it has much value in comparing 2 players of very similar value.
     
  7. sealclubber1016

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    Pitching WAR is stupid and honestly could not mean less to me. Pitchers don't do anything but pitch, so I can use the regular numbers to tell me who was better.

    As for Yordan and MVP, I actually do think WAR is a very good indicator of why he shouldn't be. Mike Trout, or Mookie Betts last season hit as well as Yordan did this season, while playing good defense and running well. As good as his numbers are, they would need to be even better (or he would need to continue posting absurd RBI numbers) for him to even be considered in a normal year.

    If he even gets into the field 50% of the time it would make a huge difference, but as is he would be rightly punished for playing no defense and hurting the teams flexibility. Unless he goes Barry Bonds, there's usually gonna be a least one player who approaches his offensive numbers while actually doing other things.

    FWIW I do believe RBI's are a real stat that should be given value and not just chalked up to being on a good team.
     
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  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I'm not even sure how it's possible Cole is so far behind Minor. Advanced and traditional stats favor Cole over Minor.
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The real value of rbi would be better captured as part of some kind of pressure stat that measures a player’s performance in pressure situations. That said, I personally believe that players should actually be penalized for being on a better team (when measuring their individual value), because their personal stats are benefitting from having better players on their team (facing pitchers who can’t pitch around them, facing pitchers with more pressure, facing pitchers who likely have higher pitch counts, etc.).
     
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  10. bobrek

    bobrek Not a liberal, regardless of my posts
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    They had an article the other day explaining why Minor was ahead of Verlander. That would apply to Cole as well, but, I agree, why is he so far behind.
     
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    You are using the wrong WAR if Minor is ahead of Verlander and Cole. Minor has a very good ERA with park effects that matches Cole and is just under Verlander. Rangers defense has been inconsistent, and supposedly horrible with Minor on the mound. This adjustment is enough to make his ERA look more impressive than Verlander.

    Regarding Lynn, he excels in Ks, HRs, and BBs. Him and Cole are basically neck and neck in fWAR (FIP plus pop ups and park effects) with Verlander and Morton a notch below. FIP's, and by extension fWAR's, biggest weakness is balls in play are completely ignored.

    There is not a WAR model based on EV and LA data yet. xwOBA is my favorite pitching stat at the moment. It isn't as accurate on average players as FIP, but it is better for the extremes at detecting players that manage contact well and players that are having good/bad luck regarding homers.
     
  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    All I know is if you privately asked general managers and managers if they would rather have a game 7 started by Verlander, Cole or Minor..... the overwhelming majority wouldn’t mention Minor.

    All statistical models are somewhat limited. Some are better than others but none are the be all end all.
     
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  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Who would you want to pitch game 7 is a prediction of the future. Not sure there is a model out there that would pick Minor or Lynn over Cole or Verlander. WAR calculations are only about what has happened. Lynn and Minor have had great years, but nothing to show that this is anything but a fluke year.
     
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  14. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    how does the park factor into War?
     
  15. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast
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    I do believe, just like OPS+, that it is factored into WAR

    But remember that there are 2 different WARs, one is Baseball Reference's version, the other is ??? can't remember
     
  16. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    So is it dimensions of the park?

    And how does that affect infielders?
     
  17. RustyHarden

    RustyHarden Member

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  18. biff17

    biff17 Member

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  19. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Agreed. That's why I always get frustrated when people take a stat that's named "Fielding Independent Pitching" at face value and ignore the fact that it completely disregards pitchers that pitch to soft contact. So what if Verlander has given up 33 homeruns this year? He has a 0.770 WHIP, which means that most of the time he's pitching with the bases empty and can afford to attack hitters high in the zone. It's not a fluke that almost all his HR given up are solo shots. Stats nerds would have you believe that it's just random noise that will regress to the mean any second now.

    I bet that Luhnow and co. have the real FIP stat hidden away somewhere, that can generate an ERA-like number that accounts for exit velos and launch angles and compares the outcome to the expected outcome, i.e. how often a ball with a 38 degree launch angle and 92mph exit velo with an eventual 315ft total distance will be a flyout, rather than a home run just because the Crawford Boxes exist.
     
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  20. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    from our friends at AstrosCounty ...

     
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