[WSJ] The Houston Rockets’ Great Three-Point Experiment

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The Houston Rockets’ Great Three-Point Experiment
James Harden and his teammates are on track to shatter the NBA record for 3-pointers—and that was exactly their plan



Houston Rockets forward Trevor Ariza shoots the ball over Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter Jr. PHOTO: GEOFF BURKE/REUTERS

By
BEN COHEN
Updated Nov. 20, 2016 5:42 p.m. ET


The Golden State Warriors weaponized the 3-pointer last season like no team the NBA had ever seen. But as they unleashed three after three, a bolder strategy began circulating around the league: What if the Warriors weren’t shooting enough?

It wasn’t only the Warriors. There is a statistically reasonable argument that every NBA team should be shooting more 3-pointers. And there is no team better suited to make that argument than the Rockets. Houston’s team from 2015, not the Warriors, still owns the record for most three attempts in a single season. But maybe not for much longer—because this year’s Rockets are pushing the limits of the 3-pointer to the extreme.

Almost half of Houston’s field goals come from behind the strip of paint on every court. If they maintain that pace, which they should unless the numerical value of a 3-pointer changes, the Rockets would end the season with the most attempted threes of any team ever. No one else would even be close.


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As it turns out, this is by design. The Rockets want every one of their possessions to end in basketball’s most valuable shots: layups and threes. Especially threes. “It’s something we’re gonna embrace,” Houston coach Mike D’Antoni said. “If we take a three every shot, so be it.”

They stand out at a time when NBA teams are on track to shoot more 3-pointers than ever. Again. For the sixth consecutive season. The players who used to shoot threes are shooting more threes; the players who never used to shoot threes suddenly have the green light. Even the sport’s 7-footers chuck from deep more often than they dunk.

It wasn’t too long ago that NBA was concerned about that steady uptick of 3-pointers. League officials worried that games would become too ragtag and fans would eventually get bored. But those fears have become extinct. Now the league is content to let the market—NBA teams—figure out the sport’s optimal equilibrium of shots.

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James Harden of the Houston Rockets shoots a jumper over Brandon Ingram of the Los Angeles Lakers on Oct. 26. PHOTO: HARRY HOW/GETTY IMAGES

“I think the game naturally evolves in the most efficient way,” said NBA executive vice president of basketball operations Kiki VanDeWeghe.

The Rockets are the latest stage of that evolution. Before this season, there were only six NBA teams that dared to shoot more than 35% of their field goals from behind the 3-point line. There are five this year alone. And there is one that has colonized an undiscovered stratosphere: 3-pointers account for 42% of Houston’s shots.

One of the only professional basketball teams with a higher reliance on 3-pointers was the 2014 Rio Grande Valley Vipers—the D-League affiliate of Houston. They served as a Petri dishby launching threes on 46.9% of their shots, part of their audacious effort to brutally maximize efficiency. Nevada Smith, their coach that season, recognizes that spirit in the Rockets, whose percentage of shots that are layups and threes is the NBA’s highest.

“You can’t just have a plan to go out and shoot a three a minute, unless you’re built for it,” said Smith, who is now the coach of the Sioux Falls Skyforce. “They’re built for it.”


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Houston Rockets forward Ryan Anderson gestures after scoring a 3-pointer during a game against the New York Knicks. PHOTO: MARY ALTAFFER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

At the heart of Houston’s plan is James Harden. He was officially named the Rockets’ point guard before this season, and he now controls the ball more than anyone in the league. Harden can shoot off the dribble. Or draw the defense on drives. Or pass to the shooters around him.

There are plenty. The players who get the most passes from Harden are Trevor Ariza, a holdover from last year, and Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, the Rockets’ off-season splurges. “Flame-throwers,” D’Antoni said.

The results so far have been encouraging. Harden leads the NBA in assists, and Gordon, Ariza and Anderson average 21 three attempts per game, more than any NBA team between 1980 and 1995. The Rockets are so oriented around the arc that they barely notice how many they’re taking anymore. “We shot 47 threes?” Harden said after his team did exactly that in a recent game. But what may be the biggest change so far is that Houston has improved from 19th in three percentage last season to 5th this season.

“We’re hoping to set the made 3-pointers record,” said Rockets general manager Daryl Morey.

Whether their approach results in enough wins is one of the NBA’s most interesting experiments. Houston currently has an 8-5 record, which places them firmly in the early Western Conference playoff race. Recent history has proven their strategy can work: Four of the last six NBA champions ranked near the top of the league in 3-point reliance. But those teams believed in something called defense, and the Rockets are still coming around to that idea.

There is a broader question here, though, and it’s not exactly about the Rockets. It’s why this is happening to begin with.

The 3-pointer used to be a niche part of basketball. In the beginning, NBA teams were simply bad at shooting. They made only 28% of threes in 1980, the first season with the arc. They didn’t hit 30% until 1987. Finally, in 2000, they passed 35%. That’s where they have more or less remained.

The difference now is not how many they’re making, but how many they’re taking: 3-point attempts amount to more than 30% of the average NBA team’s shots this year. That number was 3.1% in 1980. There has been such a fundamental shift in part because players have gotten better and teams have gotten smarter, and in part because the league itself gave teams incentive to shoot threes with a series of defensive rule changes that opened up the court in recent years.

There is also less outside inertia working against the 3-pointer. In the 2006 season, the Phoenix Suns were three-friendly with D’Antoni as their coach. NBA commentators, who still had the power to shape public opinion, were skeptical. D’Antoni says he was told again and again his team was stupid for settling for threes. “We didn’t have analytics saying it was a good shot,” he said.

It has become clear that the Suns were onto something. In the last decade, the NBA has reached a consensus: 3-pointers are not the enemy. The data is too obvious to ignore.

But it’s not only NBA teams that have a more sophisticated knowledge of basketball. The remarkable thing about the NBA in recent years is that fans also understand the sport better than ever. And they, too, champion the sport’s modern calculus: Threes are worth more than twos.

Write to Ben Cohen at ben.cohen@wsj.com

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-houston-rockets-great-three-point-experiment-1479673700