Would you trade the entire roster minus Harden for the entire OKC roster minus Westbrook?

Thunder always have the best pieces.

That's why we got Harden, Warriors got Durant, and Ibaka is now in Toronto.

 

Why would OKC trade Anderson for Kanter? And someone like Beverley is worth a lot more than someone like Abrines.

 

Because if Donovan is your coach and you are a young team, then these guys are going all in on Millsap this summer. So they don't value a stretch 4 like everyone else going by who they've played at that spot so far. Also, Kanter is 4 years younger and a perfect partner with Capela at the 5 spot - Capela only gets paid when Kanter's deal is off the books.

Not to mention Presti gave Kanter $16m and Morey gave Anderson $18m. Safe to say, these two GM's value the player they paid more than other GM's value those players.

Meanwhile, on the second statement, no it's not the case. I think what you mean to say is Patrick Beverley is a better player than Abrines, but that is not how trade value is established. I was talking about Christon but let's use Abrines just because you picked him. Abrines is an RFA in 2019 which means he is a 23 year old asset under team control for 7 years and is shooting 39% from 3 in his rookie season playing 15 minutes a night for a serious top 10 team. Bev is an unrestricted FA in 2 years and has had recurring injuries and has most likely hit his ceiling. The next thing you have to take into consideration is who the teams are. A player like Bev is worth less to the Lakers than he is to the Cavs. That's how it goes for veterans. If the Sixers could pick between Abrines and Beverley, they would pick Abrines. If the Cavs could pick, they would pick Beverley. WE are in the championship window. We would pick Beverley, and if that Beverley was on a team that is trying to get/stay young, then they would certainly take Abrines for him.

At the end of the day of course it's subjective. The real question is why the F would OKC trade a YOUNG team that won just 7-8 games less than us and has cap space to sign someone for an aging roster with less wiggle room for FA or draft? It's a ridiculous notion. OKC's roster minus Wes is MUCH better than our roster, both currently and long term. Love our guys, but they are not a talented bunch, nor are they going to make large strides in the near future other than 1 or 2 guys.

 

I am wrong after seeing these numbers --> I was looking at the talent on the court not the whole picture. Those salaries are grossly over paid at best (I saw the change your vote button and am going to use it. DM is better than we think.)

 

Presti signed Kanter to be the 3rd scorer behind Durant and Westbrook. Also, even though this is a theoretical situation, it's kind of presumptuous to assume that OKC would be able to sign anyone it wants just b/c they have the cap space to do so.

First of all, that ceiling is pretty damn good, and secondly, if you're trying to insinuate that Beverley is injury prone, he's not.

Also, I meant exactly what I said. Someone like Beverley is worth a lot more than someone like Abrines. Of course a player's contract matters in trade value, but unless it's a salary dump, the main consideration is what the player brings to the court.

In principle you're right (that for a rebuilding team, potential trumps proven value), but I think you chose poor examples. I think the Lakers would much rather have Beverley over Abrines simply b/c if they were looking to trade Beverley for a young guard on a rookie contract, they could get a much better player than Abrines. Beverley is only 28 and an elite 3/D guard.

Look at their payroll for next year. That's when Adams and Oladipo's new contracts kick in. In fact, next year, OKC is due to spend $20mm more than us, and that's without resigning Gibson (and ours is without resigning Nene).

Absolutely wrong. No matter how you look at it (whether it be individually or how they complement their stars), we have a better supporting cast.

Eric Gordon and Oladipo are a wash. Even if you think Oladipo is better, it's a marginal difference.

Adams is better than Capela, but the gap isn't as pronounced as everyone thinks. Even if you want to argue that Adams gives rebounds to Westbrook, that's at most 2 rpg. So if you add that in, he averages 11ppg/10rpg in 30 min. Capela averages 12.5ppg/8rpg in 24 minutes. Also, given that Adams is widely considered a plus defensive player, here's a fun fact. Adams' DRPM is 1.41 which is #30 among all centers. Capela's is 1.27 which puts him at #32.

Nene and Gibson are a wash. If anything, Nene is marginally better.

Regarding Anderson and Kanter, since their styles are so different, it's hard to compare them. Kanter can consistently create his own shot, but Anderson's ability to hit the 3 is crucial to the Rockets' game plan and gives Harden much more space with which to work. I'd call this a wash.

Ariza is significantly better than Roberson. Roberson is offensively useless in a half court offense, and frankly, the fact that he averages more than 20 mpg is a testament to how weak the OKC supporting cast is.

After that, OKC doesn't have anyone noteworthy while we still have Beverley and Lou Williams.

 

If our coach is JVG then yes.

 

Yes and he gave Kanter way more money than anyone else was offering. Presti obviously likes Kanter, and it doesn't have to be the case that he considers him a superstar.

No it's not presumptuous. They have one of the top 2 players in the NBA, great pieces and can jump into the top 3 with just a piece.

Beverley has had several injuries all related to each other in his late 20's. Call it what you want, it's a risk. I call it injury proneness.

Someone like Beverley is simply not worth a lot more than Abrines. I totally disagree with you, and I assure you that both Morey and Presti assess trades in exactly the way I described. The first 7 years of Abrines career are not worth significantly less than Beverley's next 2 years. You are just valuing current production more than moneyball GM's do. The main consideration is a player's production during the time you control their rights within the system you want to run.

Why are they poor examples? I think it just doesn't fit your analysis. No one is trading a much better player than Abrines who is on a rookie contract for Beverley. And that's not because Beverley is not better than them, it's because those types of players are not available for 28 year old guards who are excellent defenders and have only one offensive skill. Also, no one is trading a top 10 pick for Beverley because the bottom ten teams need a top 10 pick more than they need Pat Beverley.

True, they are capped out.

Absolutely no way and a quick look at the majority of predictions and analysis prior to the season will show it. We do not have a better supporting cast.

You are wildly overvaluing our players and completely ignoring big picture things like OKC's room for growth because of their age, Adams having his worst season, and the major error in your analysis is your comments are making excuses for Donovan's coaching or Westbrook's inferiority in making his teammates better. That is not how you judge value or talent. You are also MAAAAAAAAAASSIVELY undervaluing defense.

A Capela-Adams trade would put us in Spurs territory. Adams is just 23, barely older than Capela. Better player right now. Not much better, but 100% of GM's would take Adams if it were at the same price.

Nene and Gibson are a wash? Come on. Nene at this point in his career is not as good as Gibson as a rotation player. You have to rest Nene 10-12 games a year, you can't play him big minutes, and he is nowhere near the defender Gibson is. That is not a wash. Again, 100% of GM's take Gibson over Nene at the same price. Gibson will give you more production in a season, even if Nene can outplay him in special cicumstances.

Gordon is maybe better than Oladipo, but Oladipo will get better still. Ariza is definitely better than Roberson.

Which leaves us with Beverley, Lou, Dekker, Harrell. Beverley and Lou are great, but they still have Sabonis a top 10 pick, Christon a promising point guard of the future, and Abrines a promising wing player. None of our young guys are projected to have as high a ceiling as those 3 guys. That's huge. And those guys are bench contributors now, and they would be contributing more if not for Westbrook's elite ball hogging.

More importantly, we are now talking about the comparison between our 7th/8th best players vs theirs. That's not where the big difference comes. The big difference is our 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players vs theirs. We have possibly the worst 2nd best player in the league and that's a big deal. We have inferior talent and we saw that our talent didn't carry us post all star break. This team is where it is because harden is amazing and the rest of the guys worked their ass off especially the first half of the season and MDA coached the hell out of them. I have no doubt that if MDA and Morey were running the Thunder, they could win 60. That's how highly I regard their talent.

Anyways, I'm not interested in going in circles about opinions, but I'm seriously just shocked that people think we have a much better supporting cast. To me that's a slap in the face of the hard work, the execution, the brilliance of Harden and the coaching of MDA. I'm at peace because I'm sure the management don't see it that way either. We are desperate for talent. If we stand pat and they stand pat this summer, the Thunder will catch up to us just because of the young talent on that team.

 

Why would a Rockets fan say yes to this? Just wondering. I don't think it's good Karma to question our team right now. Harden is great, but he has a great team surrounding him, and he wouldn't have all those assists if our guys weren't making so many of those shots. Give Anderson, Ariza, Beverley, Capela, and all our bench guys some credit for getting us this far. It's playoffs time, and I love this team. Go Rockets!!!

 

You're missing the point. You think that b/c Presi signed Kanter to that contract years ago, he still thinks Kanter is worth that much. However, you're failing to consider how circumstances have changed. He was willing to go into the luxury tax for Kanter b/c he already had Durant and Westbrook. That's not the case anymore.

It's extremely presumptuous. Just b/c you want a FA and can pay him his asking price doesn't mean he'll sign with you.

So a wrist injury is related to an ankle injury which is related to a knee injury?

I'm considering production relative to cost. Abrines has a higher salary than Beverley, but Beverley produces far more. Also, do you honestly believe that Abrines has played well enough this year to warrant his contract + RFA to be considered a valuable asset?

Because if the Lakers had Beverley and wanted to trade him for a young guard on his rookie contract, they could do a lot better than Abrines. You're underestimating how valuable Beverley is.

And that argument is beyond stupid. Hindsight trumps projections. Always.

Who cares about OKC's room for growth in future years when you're only talking about the 2017 season and the 2017 season is over?

Offense is more important than defense. I'd much rather have an elite offense and an average defense than an elite defense and an average offense.

Sorry, but you can't just magically pretend that one team isn't constrained by a salary cap.

Also, I'd argue that Nene is a superior defender to Gibson. Both the eye test and the stats back it up. Remember that DRPM stat where Adams is #30? Nene is #9 with a DRPM of 3.11. Gibson's is 1.69. In fact, Gibson's RPM is -0.29. Nene's is 1.83.

At this point, I think Nene is a better player than Gibson.

The question is which team has the better supporting cast right now, not 3 years into the future.

So now you're faulting the Rockets for having such a deep team? That's just further proof we have a stronger supporting cast.

We aren't comparing our supporting cast to the rest of the league...only to the Thunder's.

 

(I haven't been following this Thread, so if this repetitious I apologize to the point of redundancy.)

To my way of thinking, on 11/1/17 would I have traded rosters sans JH13/Russ? And the answer is Heck, yeah.

 

No! Actually, if we get Draymond Green, I think we can beat the current Warriors.

 

Talent-wise? No

Contract-wise? Hell no. The exaggerated salaries of Adams, Kanter, Oladipo and possibly Roberson will keep them away from relevance for years to come.

 

Brilliant comment.

In a nutshell... if you want to build the better team - you take the OKC roster...

but we've gone all in on James Harden and everything we have is built for him... so unless you're planning on going away from james as THE focal point - you stick with what we got...

 

Put harden running pick and roll with kanter or Adams with olidipo abrines and McDermott on the outside and that would be just as lethal as any 5 man unit we can throw out there.

I think harden with okc roster would still win 55 games. And tbh I bet he would be making guys in not even mentioning shoot and play better.

I don't know why it's so hard for NBA fans around the league that don't follow the rockets to understand that James is just a better player than Russ.

It's not a talent thing Russ is extremely talented but harden actually makes guys better and gets guys open looks in spots there most comfortable. I mean he's made Capela who has no outside shot what so ever score 15-20 ppg on the reg. He's gets these shooters in our roster so many wide open shots.

Russ just doesn't look to set anyone up for easy looks. Now he does get guys easy looks but he's not trying to do that.

Harden is also easier to play with if your a star player or even just a role player. He's going to get you the ball in the right place. Iv seen Russ with KD and Russ didn't help KD out one bit it was your turn my turn all game.

 

That's a terrible lineup. Where's the defense? Do you think McDermott can guard opposing 4's and Abrines opposing 3's? We'd get killed on the boards.

Also, think about what you're saying. McDermott and Abrines haven't even earned consistent playing time in OKC yet you think they'd flourish alongside Harden? Seriously? Given that Roberson is one of the worst offensive players in the league, it's pretty telling that McDermott hasn't been able to take away some of his minutes.

 

Why would we trade Sam Dekker, AKA Harrison Barnes for anyone on OKC's roster?

 

No, I think Sam Presti signs players to contracts he thinks they are worth and not a dime more regardless of LT and contender status. For a good example of this, see: how did the Rockets get a franchise player.

And those are not the only things OKC has going for them.

Pat has had several injuries related to each other and a wrist has nothing to do with a knee/hamstring/ankle.

No you're not. You're considering current production relative to current cost, which is not how GM's make trades in this era. Current cost and current production must factor in the time value of production, i.e. what is the current value of the next 7 years of Abrines' career vs production compared to the next 2 or 7 years of Bev's career vs production. I believe Abrines has provided as much value in his rookie season as Beverley had in his. When Bev came here for his first season, he had one excellent skill - which was to hound players defensively for 20 minutes. Same goes for Abrines, who has demonstrated one excellent skill.

You've totally forgotten the point here. If the Lakers had Beverley and we had Abrines, they would trade us Beverley for Abrines. We got Lou Williams for a late first rounder and a shitty contract/player. Abrines is worth a bit more than a #27 pick and Beverley worth a bit more than Lou Williams.

I'm not underestimating Beverley. I'm constantly raving about what an excellent and underrated player he is and as evidenced by the trade I suggested, I believe a James Harden team needs a Beverley type of player to compete for a title.

This is not hindsight vs projection for the same variable. Projections are heavily based on the sum of parts. There are giant external factors that come into play once you look back on performance. We did not discover that Capela or Gordon or Anderson or Beverley or Ariza are better players than we thought. Those guys are what we expected. To compare 2 teams' records in order to assess their player talent is, to put it in your own words, beyond stupid.

You cannot discount something just because it doesn't suit your argument. Everyone cares about this. The GM, the franchise player, the coach and even analysts. You're not trying to win one game, you are trying to win championships.

What you'd rather have is irrelevant. Offense is not more important than defense, nor is defense more important than offense. What's important is offense minus defense. That's not up for debate. It's just how wins are awarded.

Nene has certainly been situationally better but he has played weaker competition as backup, has never had to guard a PF and can not give you more than 17 minutes or 67 games. Nene might have 1 or 2 seasons in him. Given Harden will be in his prime for a few years, we would much rather have Gibson - and ironically, according to one of the most trusted insiders on this site we were considering trading Beverley for Gibson.

Also, that DRPM stat is worthless without context. Are you taking Nene defensively over Chris Paul? Dwight Howard? MKG? Tyson Chandler? Jimmy Butler? Or are you taking Harden defensively over Klay Thompson? Have you noticed there are no guards in the top 13? And that Robert Covington is the 4th best defender in the NBA?

You have to understand the stat. Nene outplayed his teammates defensively in collaboration with the 4 people he shared the floor with against the calibre of opponents he faced more than Gibson or Adams outplayed their teammates defensively in collaboration with the 4 people they shared the floor with against the calibre of opponents they faced. That is NOT necessarily an indicator of who is better defensively.

That is OP's question. You have to been moving back and forth between several questions as and when it suits you. If you are trading, then in addition to what OP is asking you also take into account how it affects your championship window of course. Also you are ignoring that those players could be producing more if they weren't playing with a ball hog in an antiquated offensive system. That matters right now.

You know full well that the quality of your 2nd/3rd best players is more important than how good your 7th best player is and you can see it in teams that win championships. Do you want to be in a position where you really need a Lou Williams or an Oladipo?

No, we are comparing our players to the Thunder players and that requires comparative value with other NBA players. As in, why would I trade Beverley for Abrines when I can trade Beverley for a player on a rookie contract much better than Abrines!! Sound familiar?

I responded to your post out of courtesy but in general I have stopped responding to people who have to resort to personal insults to make their point. Thanks for the discussion, I'm not going to be able to see your posts after this so don't worry about replying.

 

And you'd be wrong. Every GM makes financial decisions based on the outlook of the team. A GM isn't going to go into the luxury tax if his team is a bottom feeder.

Wrong again. Do you really think that OKC can sign whoever they want just because they can afford to pay a player his asking price? Seriously?

Kevin Durant disagrees with you.

First of all, elite defense isn't "one excellent skill". That's half the game. Secondly, different skills have different values. A young, elite defender (Beverley in his rookie year) has more value than a young, above average shooter (Abrines) because Beverley eventually developing a jumper is much likelier than Abrines becoming a lock-down defender. Thirdly, as a rookie, Beverley shot 37.5% from the 3pt line. In other words, rookie Beverley was much better than rookie Abrines.

Next, if a GM wants to consider Abrines' future value, he has to base that on current value. That's a no brainer. There's literally no other variable he can use.

Only if Abrines were the only available player in the league. If we're looking to trade Beverley for a young guard, we can do a LOT better than Abrines. Abrines is already paid more than Beverley, he's 5 years younger, and he's currently a far inferior player.

Yes it is. We're talking about OKC's supporting cast. You're trying to evaluate them based on pre-season expectations. I'm evaluating them based on how they actually performed during the season. Obviously my evaluation will be significantly more accurate than yours.

Beverley just had the best season of his career while Anderson/Gordon surpassed our expectations in terms of health.

I ignore something if its excluded from the parameters of the question. And here's the first clause of the thread:

"Lots of talk about Harden having superior supporting cast"

Logically, that's only referring the players on the 2017 roster and how they played in 2017. So how OKC's young players will develop in the next few years irrelevant to how they performed in 2017.

If you had to pick either a top 5 offense and top 15 defense or a top 15 offense and top 5 defense, which would you pick?

Houston is #2 in offense and #18 in defense. We ended up with 55 wins. Utah is #12 in offense and #3 in defense. They ended up with 51 wins.

So yes, offense is more important than defense. Intuitively, it should make sense. How often can the best defensive scheme in the league shut down the best offensive scheme?

It's foolish to think that, just because we intentionally limited his minutes, he's incapable of playing more. In fact, he had 21 games of 20+ minutes this season.

And no, I don't think we'd much rather have Gibson over Nene. That wouldn't make any sense at all. What're you thinking? That Capela can play 35+ minutes every game and guard bigger centers like Marc Gasol full-time?

That's not surprising since guards are on the perimeter and tend to have the weakest defensive impact.

DRPM is useful when comparing players of the same position, especially the center position since you really can't cross-match defenders to hide players defensively.

In any case, the fact that Nene is rated as one of the top Center defenders should be enough to convince you that Gibson isn't far superior on defense.

And you need to understand how we use Nene. Look at his game logs at the games where he played the most minutes, and you'll see a trend. Here's the top 5.

Philly (Embiid), OKC (Adams), Orlando (Vucevic), Cleveland (Thompson), Brooklyn (Lopez). Do you see the trend?

I haven't moved the goal posts at all. You have. You've been trying to give OKC's supporting cast bonus points because of their potential 3 years down the road. I've been

Which OKC players do you think would flourish in a better system? I'd actually argue that Abrines/Sabonis would've performed worse in other systems because they wouldn't have received the playing time they got in OKC. Remember, after OKC traded Ibaka, they didn't have a PF so they were forced to start Sabonis. And Abrines became Westbrook's primary backup due to Cameron Payne's injury.

Not necessarily, and not for a team like the Rockets where you have so many quality players who are playing quality minutes.

I know it's convenient for your argument to discard the 7th best player, but look at our team. Our top 7 players, in no particular order, are Harden, Ryan Anderson, Lou Williams, Beverley, Ariza, Eric Gordon, and Capela. No matter who you think is #7 in that group, he's still a rotational player who is head and shoulders above OKC's 7th best player.

Do you understand how comparisons work? We're looking only at the supporting casts of the Rockets and Thunder. Why would other teams matter?

 

If Harden carried the likes of Pappanikola, Nick Johnson, Jason Terry, Corey Brewer , Tarik Black and Josh Smith to the second seed in the west in 2015 i'm sure he could do well with Kanter, Adams and Oladipo.

 

I wouldn't... though a good 40% of that is coaching and organizational philosophy. MDA would struggle with Harden + OKC roster. I honestly don't know what kind of coach Donovan is - partly because Westbrook isn't really coachable, he just does whatever he wants out there. But as someone said, with JVG then its a different story.

Moreover, I am super confused by the logical inconsistency of (i) Presti being a great GM, (ii) everyone thinking it made sense for KD to stay in OKC last offseason because they had a deep, talented roster that in a sense completely tanked their chance at a ring .... with ... this current OKC roster being **** and in an extremely bad position contract wise.

The standard answer is the roster was built around Westbrook + KD. Um, ok, I guess. They were still saying that roster built around those two players was super talented. I get it that if you lose a KD your team is not going to be as good. But its the same players (absent the Ibaka trade, which everyone viewed as OKC destroying Magic in that trade). In any case, even without the ability to really know KD's intentions, $25 million a year for Adams (signed this preseason or so, well after they knew KD had gone), $21 million a year for Oladipo (an extension signed mind you of course after KD left , but before they really knew how good Oladipo was and if he'd mesh with Westbrook), $17 million a year for Kanter, and of course $28 million a year for Russ.

Maybe Presti just isn't that great a GM, well at least when you factor in their run of bad luck. I mean I don't really agree with that. For one, he's as good a drafter as I've seen outside of the Spurs (where he learned and why he's good). For two, the Harden trade was kind of forced on him. For three, other trades he makes seem to be trades he either wins or does well on. I do not like the contracts... but then he was kind of stuck with signing them to those large contracts or losing assets for nothing.

No... I think actually more likely there actually is a 55 win team in there, like the Rockets, if it wasn't all about Westbrook's triple doubles all the time. That's a really solid defensive team. That's a team that could easily win half court battles a lot of the time if they could figure out how to use Roberson without stashing him at the 3 pt line. That's a team that has underutilized Oladipo and Adams and Kanter even if all three had "ok" years. Weak bench, but improved at the trade deadline.