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Will Trump’s Racist Attacks Help Him? Ask Blue-Collar White Women.

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by biff17, Jul 31, 2019.

  1. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    • His strategy rests on a bet: that these voters will respond just as enthusiastically to his belligerence as working-class white men.

      RONALD BROWNSTEINJUL 25, 2019
      [​IMG]
      MANUEL BALCE CENETA / AP
      Donald Trump’s turn toward more overt racism in his “go back” attacks on four Democratic congresswomen of color rests on an unspoken bet: that the women who are part of his core constituencies will respond to his acrimony as enthusiastically as the men.


      But polling throughout Trump’s presidency has indicated that his belligerent and divisive style raises more concern among women voters than men in one of his most important cohorts: the white working class. And a new set of focus groups in small-town and rural communities offers fresh evidence that the gender gap over Trump within this bloc is hardening.


      In the Rust Belt states that tipped the 2016 election to Trump—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—few things may matter more than whether Democrats can fan doubts about Trump that have surfaced among blue-collar white women or whether the president can rebuild his margins among them with his polarizing racial and ideological attacks.

      “The white working-class men look like they are approaching the 2016 margins for Trump, but not the women,” says the veteran Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, in a judgment supported by public polling. “Clearly the women are in a different place.” Greenberg conducted the focus groups, whose findings were releasedtoday, for the American Federation of Teachers.


      In both parties, most strategists I’ve spoken with agree that Trump’s bellicose attacks on the congresswomen will harden the opposition he faces among the groups most accepting of America’s changing identity: young people, minorities, and college-educated white voters, especially women. What’s more, his new offensive represents exactly the sort of behavior that has led an unprecedented number of voters satisfied with the economy to nonetheless express doubts about his leadership: In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll released earlier this week, fully one-third of adults who said the economy is working for them personally still said they disapprove of Trump’s job performance. An equal share of these voters said they now intend to vote against him for reelection. To offset that unusual defection among the economically content, Trump must maximize his margins—and turnout—among the groups that have been most receptive to his exclusionary racist and cultural messages: older, nonurban, evangelical-Christian, and non-college-educated white voters.


      But Trump’s strategy faces a huge obstacle if working-class women don’t buy in to his message as much as working-class men. That’s for a simple reason: Every data source—from the exit polls to the Pew Research Center’s analysis of voter files to studies by Catalist, a Democratic voter-targeting firm—shows that these women reliably cast slightly more than half of all the votes from the white working class.

      “If you think about the strategy they had in ’16 … where he campaigned and went into these [blue-collar and nonmetropolitan] areas and really drove up the vote—that doesn’t work if the women aren’t responding to it, if they watch him and they get put off by it,” Greenberg says. “It only works if women are part of the story. You just can’t get the numbers if half of white working-class, nonmetro voters are put off by what you are doing.”

      White working-class women have been a reliably Republican-leaning constituency for the past generation. Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 is the only Democratic presidential candidate since 1980 who has carried them. Data measuring the 2016 vote show that Trump expanded the GOP margins with these women to the highest level in years: His advantage ranged from 21 percentage points, according to calculations by Catalist; to 23 points, according to Pew; to 27 points, according to

      But in 2018, Republicans sagged among these women. Nationally, GOP House candidates still won their vote overall, but by less robust margins than Trump did two years before: 14 points per the exit polls and 17 percent per the Catalist calculations. And Democrats in 2018 generally performed much better with these voters in marquee Senate and governor’s contests in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (Only in the Senate race in Michigan and in the governor’s race in Wisconsin did Republicans retain a solid lead with these voters.)




      But among the women, those areas of agreement were mitigated by other concerns about Trump, including their belief that, on immigration, “his rhetoric … made him sound ‘racist’ or ‘ignorant,’” as the report notes. “There were a lot of mentions of intolerance in reaction to what he was saying and doing,” Greenberg says.

      More at link.
     
  2. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    I personally just know way too many Trump voter women to think that its a reality anyone can bank on that they would abandon Trump. The same racial animus their husbands have, they have too. They just can't hide behind race humor that white Trump voter men do. You wouldn't believe the sh$% they say to me all the time with the hope I'll one day laugh.

    I just don't think 2020 is going to be won by flipping back over white working class women. Suburban women, and to a certain extent men in the suburbs... yes I think that's doable. Look at how many voters voted for Beto AND Greg Abbott in Texas. That has flashing red lights right there.

    So yeah, there are SOME votes to be had, but not the mass exodus that some are thinking. That woman holding that Women for Trump sign.. . she is going NOWHERE.

    Inspiration to turnout is EVERYTHING in 2020. Having a genuine candidate that has a strong economic plan for the middle class is everything. And get your A$$ in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn.... and if you can get Texas... GET IT. Beto (love him or hate him) has a ground game here that needs to be tapped for help.
     
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  3. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    I think the main thing is to stop focusing on his racist attacks. We know he makes racist attacks all the time. Anyone who denies it does so to rationalize to him/herself. There is nothing more to be gained from exposing his racism. It has already been exposed.

    Just start focusing on winning ideas and changes in policy.
     
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  4. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Some independent woman got daddy issues.

    Maybe they can trot Ivanka around again in 2020 and convince people America will do okay just like her.
     
  5. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Well, you don't really have to flip the whole demographic to get a win. White working-class women is a big cohort, so if you can shave off some percentage points, with a few more percentage points choosing to not vote at all, and couple that with a strong turnout in other demographics, you can cobble together a win.
     
  6. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    This.
     
  7. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    I think the takeaway from this is that those type of voters are wavering.

    Trump doesn't have a huge margin and it's will serve to depress his voters more than energize them IMO.
     
  8. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Yeah. My comment is more about the coverage of white working class women vs Trump supporting women like the ones in the picture or really like all the ones I know. Big difference and I think the punditry on this mystical swing voter lacks the nuance of the differences in one vs the other.

    I agree there are women out there but it’s not nearly as high as what the media might make it seem as if they are this big bucket over here. If they voted for Trump before it’s still very very very likely they’ll vote for him again. The margins of slippage on the ground with the Trump women I know is super low and with many the support is actually increasing with the deepening of the cult like behavior.

    But... even the light margins of slippage in these voters is a big deal. Hillary lost Michigan by what... 10k votes? Your right that Trump doesn’t have much margin voters to risk losing.
     
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  9. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    The Trump strategy of being racist... or the Dem strategy of calling everything racist....
     
  10. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    The former.
     
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  11. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    I think the strategy of being a racist, coding the language, and then having faux outrage that drives a defensive position with your political followers is a far more effective political strategy than having a poor reaction to racism where you take the bait & do exactly what Trump is wanting you to do.

    There's a reason why politicians on the right have been doing this since Nixon. They just don't do it so over the top and obvious. It works unfortunately.

    TBH I'm not exactly sure how you are supposed to deal with racist political propaganda. My guess is you just comment that the comment Trump made is intended to get a reaction that divides the country, and I want to bring everyone together yada yada.

    ..........

    And to your point, there is no "STRATEGY" for the Dems to call everything racist, and you know that. They are however.... struggling with their reaction where the way they react is designed under almost every instance to cause a defensive reaction with White People that support Trump.

    The Media is NOT = The Democrats either. It's a right wing tactic to try and conflate everything media related to the Democratic party which if you watch the debates the last two nights... is obviously NOT the case. Racist Politics sells, and shame on them for covering it in the way they do.
     
    #11 dobro1229, Aug 1, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2019
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  12. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    Yeah I don't understand why the question from interviewers is always is Trump a racist or do you think what he said was racist.

    The need to just answer why they thought it was wrong and remove racism out of the equation.
     
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  13. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Yeah I think the answer should be that its irrelevant. What's relevant is the political goal of using racism. The goal is the divide. I'm not taking the bait...etc. etc.
     
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