1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Will Lin be another Dragic/Lowry?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by theangrycanary, May 4, 2014.

  1. theangrycanary

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    701
    Likes Received:
    36
    I was just writing some overly elaborate post on Moreyball and stats when I noticed that Jeremy Lin had his best shooting year this year. Which surprised me because my 'eye test' told me that he was abysmal from three.

    Fg - 446, 3pt - 358, ft - 823

    And his turnovers are down to 2.5/game.

    All his best ever.

    This bugs me for one simple reason. It means that Jeremy Lin is getting better. In fact, he seemed to kind of find another level in that one playoff game. And everyone on the planet saw how his defense was beast mode in that final fourth quarter on Lillard. Held him to 0. So I refuse to listen to people talk about what him being a defensive liability. He takes hard charges and is active on defense.

    And the one thing we know about Lin is he works hard, trains hard, and he's about to hit his physical peak 26 - 28.

    Now, the rockets are about to try to offload him this season.

    So... are we going to see a repeat of Lowry and Dragic? Basically we get a young point guard with flashes of talent, we train him up, and then send him packing right when all the training and work pays off?

    Lets say that next year Lin gets slightly stronger, faster, smarter, and shoots SLIGHTLY better. Lets say he goes to a team where he starts and is allowed to take midrange shots and plays a lot of pick and roll.

    FG - 46 %, 3pt - 38 %, ft - 84 %, 15 pts, 8 assists. Good defense.
    Guess what? Better than Lowry this year.

    And look at Dragic. Look at the freakish jump in his stats that he had to get to his all star level this year. Dragic just suddenly can shoot the three ball.

    In '12 - Fg - 443, 3pt - 319, ft - 748,
    In '13 - Fg - 505, 3pt - 408, ft - 760,

    Basically, because of his age, and coming off this playoff experience and with another offseason of work, etc. we can say odds are Lin will be better next year. The only question is how much better?

    So if we send him packing... how at risk are we at having a threepeat of lowry and Dragic?
     
  2. rocketman84

    rocketman84 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2003
    Messages:
    4,547
    Likes Received:
    2,480
    I hope he is, in the sense that we get rid of him
     
    1 person likes this.
  3. GanjaRocket

    GanjaRocket Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2012
    Messages:
    3,557
    Likes Received:
    104
    are there stats for telling us his dribble is too loose and shaky?
     
  4. Texanswin2013

    Texanswin2013 Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    359
    Likes Received:
    13
    The "eye test" is telling you those things because Lin is one of the most inconistent players I've ever seen.

    Alot of nights he's terrible, other nights he's average, some nights he's great.

    Which gives you those averages. Those are probably the least impactful "decent" stats you'll see. Simply because he was not bringing that statline every night.


    On his growth as an all-star like Lowry/Dragic: I honestly don't see it. He lets the same flaws he had in the DL come back to bite him in the NBA most nights. He can't play at different speeds, his passing is average, his finishing in traffic can be good but he misses so many gimmes. And he is relatively old for a young, high potential player. He will be 26 next year.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. theangrycanary

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    701
    Likes Received:
    36
    Inconsistent... like James Harden? Dwight Howard? Lebron James?

    As you get better, you look more consistent. Not because you're more consistent, but because even when you are playing badly you're pretty good.
     
  6. xtruroyaltyx

    xtruroyaltyx Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2011
    Messages:
    6,725
    Likes Received:
    3,998
    No...
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. Texanswin2013

    Texanswin2013 Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    359
    Likes Received:
    13
    Lin's inconsistency is on entirely different tier from every name you mentioned in this thread.
     
  8. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    22,378
    Likes Received:
    4,373
    Lin will be MVP with his next team.
     
  9. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2007
    Messages:
    18,277
    Likes Received:
    5,787
    The difference between Lin and those other two is he has a significantly lower Basketball IQ, which is really going to hinder him becoming anything more than a mediocre player. He just doesn't understand the game very well from a macro level.

    Furthermore his defense is very limited.
     
  10. ossim

    ossim Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2014
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    0
    Any PG will flounder in McHale's "system". PG's are supposed to be floor leaders. When you give them no plan to succeed, they are going to play wildly inconsistent. On the other hand, Lin isn't even playing pg half the time.
     
  11. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,618
    Likes Received:
    4,698
    It's possible. Don't forget when looking at his percentages to adjust for the fact that he was feasting off playing next to some very talented offensive players who took a ton of the defensive attention away. Just look at Hardens numbers when he played next to Durant and Westbrook. You move him to a team where he's 1st or 2nd option the number of easy looks goes down and with that goes the shooting percentages. Not to mention with more minutes, more time with the ball and more defensive pressure the TOs are likely to go up as well.

    I think his defense will continue to improve, but I think it's pretty funny that the 1 quarter of defense is enough to know he's not a liability.

    I guess time will tell. I will be interested to see how it goes for him if and when he's gone.
     
  12. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2012
    Messages:
    41,201
    Likes Received:
    24,330
    Once Lin leaves he'll be, at worst, All NBA 2nd Team.
     
  13. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    9,615
    Likes Received:
    2,060
    If we have to basically pay another team to take Lin, then we should keep him unless the 15M in payroll hinders us from getting someone we want.

    By basically pay, I mean give up extra assets just to unload him. This would seem counter productive for we might need those very assets to improve the team rather than spending on getting rid of Lin.

    Sure, he will be vastly overpayed for his production in 2015. But given this, no team will take him without substantial sweeteners.

    So, we may as well give it another year and hope for the best. He could have a breakout year after all.
     
  14. DallasThomas

    DallasThomas Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2002
    Messages:
    3,350
    Likes Received:
    178
    The difference between Lowry/Dragic and Lin in this situation is that Lowry & Dragic were already good when they played for the Rockets.

    It's not like both of them just magically became borderline all stars. They were well on their way to that point when they were still with the Rockets. Lin, OTOH, would have to see a gigantic jump from his play with the Rockets to get to near-all star status.
     
    1 person likes this.
  15. Cloudx9

    Cloudx9 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    78
    Likes Received:
    13
    Actually Lin's number this year is pretty comparable to Dragics in his final year with the Rox. And it can be up for debate whether playing with a ball dominant guy like Harden would hurt or help Lin's stats. Im very curious as to Lin's production if he is traded to some scrub team. One thing I am certain is if Lin somehow ends up with DAntoni again then well. He'll prob put up similar stats as Lowry or Dragic.
     
  16. Razsan

    Razsan Member

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2013
    Messages:
    774
    Likes Received:
    26
    His IQ and Defense looked pretty damn good shutting down Lillard in the 4th quarter..should've played another .9 seconds.
     
  17. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 1999
    Messages:
    66,761
    Likes Received:
    16,926
    Lin is a bench player not an all star

    You can't put Lin in the same sentence as lebron

    Your grammar check should immediately spot that error
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. Cloudx9

    Cloudx9 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    78
    Likes Received:
    13
    Which also reminds me, the other day on the radio, Doug Gottlieb compared Lin to Evan Turner. Saying he is a guy capable of putting up big numbers on bad teams. But a backup role player on a championship contender. So it will really depend on who he ends up with. But ill just say never say never when it comes to his future production. The reality is we dont know. Just like Lowry and Dragic. Also for people to say Lin will never be an All Star, who knows. He could put up 18 and 7 on a bad team and then all the fans vote him in.
     
  19. theangrycanary

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    701
    Likes Received:
    36
    I think Lin would have got beaten in that same situation or committed a foul on the three point shot. It was a bad defensive set up. Hard to chase a shooter at full speed and then get a good defensive play on him without fouling him.

    Basically, they should have left the inbounder open and trapped lillard. No @#$%ing brainer.

    But yeah, Lin gives effort on defense. Takes hard charges. Runs down the floor. Etc. He doesn't have the length or lateral quickness to be an elite defender. But he's solid when it counts.
     
  20. Razsan

    Razsan Member

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2013
    Messages:
    774
    Likes Received:
    26
    Someone on sports talk mentioned going without an in bounds defender and guarding 5 on 4. I know that's hindsight but you HAVE to have a plan for Lillard. He was open by 5 yards.
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now