Will Les Pay for a 3rd star, Parsons, and Beverley?

He's willing to spend on the right players. He got burned by Barkley and Pippen in the 90's. No doubt mistakes were made from 1995 to 1999. Then, Tmac and Yao in the 00's. Early acquisitions really proved detrimental to the team. CD really picked up some garbage. Jim Jackson the third best player? SMH. Griffen was a huge letdown also. That guy had the ability to be pretty awesome. No one talks about it because he passed, but as a Rookie he had a lot of promise. Him and Mo Taylor should of been a lot better with Yao.

I'd say he's going to be cautious but he's not a cheapskate if he feels we have a chance. When we don't have a chance he is a cheapskate. Chuck Hayes starting for 3 years is a good example of when we were not going to win.

Best example would be 2009. I'm under the impression that we had a championship team. He went out and got the guys we needed. No one could predict Yao and Mutumbo careers ending that post season. At full strength we had a full roster of hungry veterans and quality young guys.

So looking at past history and trying to predict…I expect moves will be made this deadline, summer, and before next years deadline to get a 3rd star. Unless Parsons or Lin continue to develop to the elite all star level we need. Which both of them have a chance to do. Moreso Parsons at this point.

 

Les might go over the cap to keep Parsons, but I'd be surprised if it's way over the cap. You're probably looking at three max, a near max (Parsons), with heavy roster churn made up of rookie contracts. Ask BT, he's the number's nerd around here.

 

The real question is, if that third star ends up being a SF (or PG), do we empty our pockets to retain Parsons (or Bev)? Are they the same player if they'll have to play out of position (or off the bench)? Will they even be willing to do so?

 

Ask Asik....

 

Parsons is probably gone. This isn't 1995 anymore, no way Les is paying repeater tax multiple seasons.

 

Barkley signed for 99¢ to make room for Quitten. No mistake there.

 

The Rockets are really in a different situation than the cases that you sited.

OKC is obviously a small market team and couldn't afford to pay any luxury tax.

As for the other three teams they were all way over the cap and would end up being luxury tax repeat offenders which means that they would have been playing 3 to 4 times the amount that they were over the luxury tax line. That wouldn't be the case with the Rockets.

For the special cases of the the Lin and Asik poison pill contracts, they would have each counted $15M against their teams cap if they'd matched the deals. Based on NY and Chicago's team salaries they would have ended up costing each of those teams around $40M for next season alone.

Likewise, cutting Mike Miller saved Miami almost $40M in luxury tax payments over two years. That's because their payroll was more than $15M above the tax line and they were repeat offenders. They would have ended up paying $3.50 in taxes for each dollar of Miller's salary over those two years.

If the Rockets acquire a 3rd star by trading Asik and Lin they their payroll doesn't really change too much. That would mean that they would be at or just over the salary cap (but still below the luxury tax line).

They could resign Parson's for a starting salary around $10M and they'd still be under the luxury tax line. Assuming Beverley isn't going to get huge money, resigning him would put them just slightly over the luxury tax line.

Being that the Rockets wouldn't be repeat offenders they'd be looking at paying $1.50 for each dollar that they were over the cap up to $5M and $1.75 for each dollar between the $5M to 10M over the cap range.

For example, let's say that the Rockets ended up $8M over the luxury tax line. Based on this year's luxury tax their payroll would be $71.7M + $8M = $79.7M. That's an increase of almost $20M from our current salary cap situation.

Even with that large of an increase their luxury tax bill would be $12.75M. That number is calculated as follows:

Total amount over luxury tax line : $8M
$1.50 x first $5M over tax line = $7.5M
$1.75 x remaining $3M over tax line = $5.25M
Total tax bill = $7.5M + $5.25= $12.75M

Almost $13M isn't a trivial amount but based on the fact that Less was always willing to throw in $3M to make a trade work or to buy a 2nd round pick I don't think that that amount would prevent him from assembling what he thought was a championship roster. Les was willing to amnesty Scola and eat $9M in salary for each year remaining on that deal just to provide cap flexibility for us to acquire a 2nd star (Howard), so I don't think that a luxury tax bill in the range that I described would be a show stopper. Is he going to be will wiling to pay $90M to $100M like the Nets? Probably not.

That's a big difference than other teams with huge tax bills. For those teams, role players like Lin, Asik or Miller are not worth an additional $40M. For the Rockets, it wouldn't be nearly as expensive and that third star would greatly enhance our chances at a title.

 

People make a really big assumption when they assume that we will even have a 3rd max level deal at all.

All of the "oh it's going to be..." guys aren't look too likely at this point and the Rockets "asset" in Asik has plummeted in value.

 

Les never paid the tax when CD was GM.

 

How expensive will Parsons and Beverley get?

Parsons perhaps $10M? Beverley I think $4M tops-- he is basically Mario Chalmers, I think. I like Pat's game but he isn't one to fill up box score stats and those stats get you paid. Besides, the PG marker is flooded.

 

This is why we must consider trading Terrence while Jones is high.

 

In the scenario laid out in the OP, the first season the Rockets would realistically be a taxpayer would be 2015/16 season. The Rockets therefore couldn't be repeater taxpayers under this current CBA which has an opt-out after the 2016/17. We'll have to see what sort of weight Les and the other big market owners can throw around to reduce the luxury tax load that has caused them to solely get rid of end of the rotation players - not starters.

 

smoke em if u got em :grin:

 

Your correct. I should of clarified. I am assuming that the acquisition of Pippen in 1999 and Barkley in 1996 handicapped the Rocket's abilities to get other talented players. I'm in hindsight so I might be wrong. The rosters were not as deep as what was required at the time. I'm not 100% positive on exactly why, but I thought it was safe to assume it was a money problem.

 

So he did go cheap then. Ok I was incorrect in my assessment.

 

It's hard to say, because we have been avoiding the cap like genital herpes for reasons of flexibility. Les is one of the spendier owners in the league, though, despite that.

 

Les is hoping Parsons is the third star. Otherwise, he'll let him walk or trade him.


We really don't need that much talent (3 stars + parsons) in the starting lineup, as odd as that may sound. We're better off with a pure shooter at the three.

 

I think the obvious answer right up front is that Asik & Lin are not luxuries that Les can afford to keep beyond 2015. That is almost a sure thing. If they want to be players in bringing in another big name player, those two are goners.

Everyone else, Parsons, Bev, Casspi should be well within reason.

Adding another superstar player however opens up a new set of challenges. However the term "superstar salary" tells us nothing because in this case is that star player making 14 million (Harden type of salary) or 24 million (Kobe type salary). That's the big difference.

Obviously the Rockets cannot afford the mega contract regardless, but there are ways for the Rockets to bring in another 10 to 14 million dollar salaried player and keep Parsons & Beverley.

Technically, in the Summer of 2015, you could keep Harden, Howard, add Parsons to a 4 year 60 million dollar deal (what some would consider a near max deal & worst case scenario), and add your coveted 3rd star level player before you re-sign Parsons to a deal in the 4 years 70 million dollar deal and still avoid the luxury tax. (Parsons low cap hold in the Summer of 2015 allows you to do such).

However you have your entire salary cap & up to the luxury tax line wrapped up in 4 players only which might be problematic.

Patrick Beverley might be able to be resigned at the mid level exception.

After that you are looking at another 8 to 11 million in salary coming from vet min players or rookie scale contracts putting the Rockets about 10 to 13 mil over the lux tax in a worst case scenario.

(Sorry for the fuzzy math but its rough guesstimates)

So yes its possible assuming Pat Beverley doesn't play his way into a big contract, Parsons' contract stays within reason (below 4 years 60 mil), and the Rockets only add a all-star type of player that is only scheduled or commands that 14 to 17 million dollar range a year in salary.

Lots of assumptions, but the Rockets would probably take the risk now, and bring in a player like Kevin Love IF he came available in free agency, and risk losing Beverley & risk a team offering a max contract to Parsons in free agency. I personally think thats a risk worth taking IMO.