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Why do people think we will be bad this year if we don't trade for Howard/Bynum?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by OremLK, Jul 20, 2012.

  1. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    One of the things the guys in favor of rebuilding keep suggesting is that the Rockets will be a top 10 lottery team. Some people even think we will be a top 5 lottery team. They think it's going to be a "fast rebuild" because we'll get a high lotto pick, maybe trade up, find a superstar.

    From where I'm standing, nothing has really changed.

    We swapped Lowry/Dragic for Lin/scrubs, yes. But let's keep in mind Lowry was injured a huge percentage of the year. Lin is probably about the equal of each of those players, maybe a slight downgrade. It's going to end up being similar production, or just slightly less.

    We're moving from Dalembert/half a year of Camby to (probably) Omer Asik/Motiejunas. I actually think Asik is very comparable to Camby. Motiejunas, even as a rookie, will probably be better offensively than either Dalembert or Camby, although he will be a bit of a pushover on defense due to his weight class. Overall I call this a wash. It could actually be an upgrade depending on how Asik develops and Motiejunas debuts (some have called Motiejunas an early RoY candidate).

    Scola is gone, but Patterson has had his sophomore slump and is likely to improve to about Scola's level. Jones looks VERY good, and VERY NBA ready, and I think he's a lock to get some minutes at PF.

    We're replacing Courtney Lee with Lamb, but without a Howard/Bynum trade, Kevin Martin is still a Rocket, and he might be healthy for most of the season this time, instead of injured/underperforming. I see a wash here as well; Lamb is a strong rookie, and despite all of CF's whining, Martin is better than both Lee and Lamb if he's healthy.

    TL;DR: Overall, I think the team is a bit worse than last year assuming we sign Asik, but not much. We might move down to somewhere around #10-12 seed, but we're not off the so-called "mediocrity treadmill" yet. We need to trade some legit assets for Howard and lose him in free agency to be truly bad, or get Howard and re-sign him to be good.

    Dwight Howard is the key to getting off the treadmill.
     
  2. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    As far as the rookies go: None of them project to be superstars. We could easily be right back to #14 (from #10-12) next year and just stay there... yet again.
     
  3. WNBA

    WNBA Member

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    It will be a major failure if Rockets only get 10-12 pick.
    We need to tank the hell out of this league.
     
  4. R0ckets03

    R0ckets03 Contributing Member

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    lol...cause we have been sucking for the past two decades and some mid first round rookies who are doing well in some stinking summer league aren't going to change anything.
     
  5. ashiin

    ashiin Member

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    I honestly don't care where we end up anymore, because watching these youngsters develop > bringing down their morale by tanking on their rookie year.
     
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  6. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    We will be bad if we give the rookies heavy minutes. We could be so bad that we end up with a top five pick.
     
  7. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    But we won't though. Let's be realistic. Kevin Mchale is going to start this 5:

    Lin
    Martin
    Parsons
    Patterson
    Asik

    Do you see any rookies in there? Maybe Martin gets traded at the deadline, but still...
     
    1 person likes this.
  8. ArtV

    ArtV Contributing Member

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    If we stay as-is I still think we are a bottom 10 team. You won't get the same consitantsy from rookies as you would a vet. And its one thing to be shreading it up against sl scrubs vs nba vet starters. Plus if you look at the roster there is 1 player that sticks out like a sore thumb...Martin. He will be gone either way. That will probably put us in top 7. Maybe bundle up or wait for the lotto balls to smile upon us.
     
  9. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    I absolutely expect DMo to start over PatSquatch from fame one.
     
  10. conquistador#11

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    so you weren't cheering when we were sucking against the blazers in 09?

    I guess if it comes down to championships we have been sucking but so has everyone else.:rolleyes:

    on the topic,
    I really want a top 5 pick but I too feel this team will be as good as the knicks and nets and win 43 games. Rockets played their best bball last year when Marcus came in and did not allow manimals to out hustle our "centers" and "power forwards".
    With the addition of Asik, you get a younger Camby. Add a healthy patterson and an improved parsons and the same efficiency from the pg position and we will back to the 8th, 9th seed...NOOOO!:p

    We can always cheer for lowry to get the "aids*" for three weeks and hope toronto ends up with the 6th pick.



    *referencing that silly thread were some posters were diagnosing lowry's health
     
  11. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    If Les wants the Rockets to tank, ...

    Previous seasons he has not. Rebuilding via reloading has not worked out so far. Les is not a patient man. I could see Les allowing the Rockets to tank next season, if they do not land Howard.
     
  12. thekad

    thekad Member

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    Trade Kevin Martin. Start Motiejunas and Lamb. Hold injured players out when they could play.

    We'll be around 30 wins if not a bit lower, which gives us a legitimate shot at a top 3 pick.
     
  13. Rip Van Rocket

    Rip Van Rocket Contributing Member

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    First of all. No way Patterson plays to the level of Scola. People will realize this next year how valuable Scola was.

    Secondly, I think the Rockets may really struggle defensively. I think our new guys have the potential to be good defensive players, but the learning curve will be very steep the first year.

    I think anytime you are playing multiple rookies at the same time you will probably see problems. I think it will take time for team chemistry to develop.

    Finally, I don't think we are going to have much of a bench, will we? I'm optimistic about this teams future, but I can't help but feel we will struggle this next year.
     
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  14. IzakDavid13

    IzakDavid13 Contributing Member

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    Championship if we get Dwight...
    1st Round if we don't.

    Lin
    Lamb
    Parsons
    Motiejunas
    Howard
    Vs

    Lin
    Martin
    Parsons
    Motiejunas
    Asik
     
  15. jc9495

    jc9495 Member

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    Daryl Morey's interview with Josh Innes and Rich Lord yesterday might disagree with you. Rich straight up asked him if DMo was ready to start in the NBA and Daryl straight up said no.

    The team even if we get Asik is 12th seed in the west at best. If you people cannot see how we've regressed immensely (at least initially), you are blind. I think that even the Hornets now with a healthy Gordon are a better team than us, GSW with Bogut, Minnesota, and possibbly even Sacramento (yes I went there) have a chance at being better than us next year.
     
  16. Red.Glare

    Red.Glare Member

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    I agree with what you said, except I think we'll lose a lot of games at the beginning of the season. After that we'll probably play almost up to where we were last year. We could easily go 12 and 3 to start, depending on the schedule. Even with a bad start, it probably wouldn't help us get anything higher than maybe the 10th pick.
     
  17. bberge

    bberge Member

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    we won't suck but we don't maximize our talent by staying put. we have seven or so players with real potential (white, parsons, patterson, morris, lamb, jones, motiejunas) to fill three positions. hell, i might even stretch to 8 and add jajuan johnson.

    if we stay put our rotation looks roughly like this:
    1- Lin, Douglas/machado
    2- Martin, Lamb
    3- Parsons, White/Morris
    4- Patterson, Jones/Johnson
    5- Asik, Motiejunas, Patterson/Johnson

    that's 13 guys, so maybe machado's the odd man out.

    at least two reasonably high ceiling players are gonna get sqeezed out of meaningful PT. it doesn't matter how good you are if you don't play. and if you don't play, people think you suck, and your value drops (see: morris, marcus). the roster glut will artificially devalue certain players and undermine our entire strategy of amassing assets.

    and then what? we have like net +5 extra draft picks. and two overseas guys who look pretty good (llull and aldemir). what do we do with all these players? we HAVE to make a lopsided (player-wise) deal eventually, or we sabotage our own strategy. and now is the PERFECT time to do so, with the memory of summer league fresh.
     
  18. cogs

    cogs Member

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    Easy on the "decades" comment. Don't know if you forgot but it was not 20 years ago that we won back to back championships. We have only sucked for around 15 years :(, and even during that span we made the western semi-finals.
     
  19. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    When i saw who the OP was, i knew it would turn into a rent-a-Howard thread.:rolleyes:
    Tricky start though.
     
  20. cogs

    cogs Member

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    And what superstars do we have now that we will be giving up? That is his point, we have a bunch of role players that will be replaced by role players. There is a chance that these new young role players just might be as good if not better. So I agree that doesn't mean we are going to get out of the 12-14 picks we have already grown accustomed to.

    A big name trade is the only way to get us to tanking or winning.
     

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