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Why do I/we undervalue Yao?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rileydog, Jan 22, 2008.

  1. choujie

    choujie Member

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    I'm tired of those lack of center arguments against Yao.

    This can't explain why Shaq's number actually got worse after Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson etc were all gone and he was in his absolute prime, it can't explain why TD's stats took a hit against all those "weaker" centers after the rule change.

    In fact, the defensive ability of those centers are better than the old days, the rule change also makes it a lot tougher for post players. If anything, the offensive stats for post players are inflated compare to today's game. Heck, Even Shawn Bradley had decent offensive stats back in old days.

    With the old illegal defense rules, Yao would get the ball down low a lot more, and you can imagine what's gonna happen.
     
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    ^ Yeah, I don't get the argument that a lack of superstar centers makes it easier for centers to score these days. That really has on bearing on interior post defense.
     
  3. ColomboLQ

    ColomboLQ Member

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    I think this is exactly right. You see Yao have 30 and 17 but could not score in the 4th when he was being covered by Kurt Thomas one on one. He still played great, but you can tell that there can be so much more. He simply hasn't shown the ability to consistently force his will on a game in the 4th quarter. Being covered one on one by Okur in the playoffs should have meant that he should have been the best player on the court during that entire series, but instead was continually forced into bad turnovers time and time again. I don't see this changing if he continually shoots a ton of fadeaways instead of being physical on his way to the basket. He shows flashes of this from time to time but not enough.
     
  4. ibm

    ibm Member

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    some writer has an article recently (maybe on si) arguing that maybe we can't have both ways. one hand some are saying how great duncan, howard, amare, yao, bynum, camby, kaman, chandler etc. are playing, on the other they're saying we lack of good centers in this era.

    this is definitely debatable.
     
  5. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    JayZ750, I don't think you, Bloop and I disagree. Boiled down, the premise of my post is that Yao's stats are elite, but somehow I find myself disappointed with him, even when he puts up 30 and 17. Bloop and I are saying that the reason we find ourselves disappointed is because of viceral/emotional reasons - Yao's the biggest guy on the floor, we expect more, he doesn't play physically, he turns over the ball. We essentially concede that the objective stats somehow give way to these viceral/emotional responses we have to his play. The question is whether that's fair. I don't have an answer yet, but consider this.

    I go back to the 30 and 17 game. That's a microcosm of everything we're talking about. On any and every night of the NBA, those are elite superstar numbers. But the feelings remain. So it begs the question -- are all points and rebounds the same?

    I'll float an idea: No, they are not the same.

    A tough, physical rebound in heavy traffic is not the same as a freebee that just lands in your lap. A strong move through a double team for a bucket is not the same as hitting a wide open jump shot or a routine turnaround jumper.

    When repeated, the tough rebound and power move/bucket count more. They set tone and inspire your team, demoralize the opponent, have a greater impact on both sides' coaching, fire up/demoralize the crowd, and dictate momentum. Also, they're rare and few players can do it.

    Perhaps a big part of the reason that Yao -- and his outstanding season statistics -- are not valued as high as they might be is that his points and rebounds tend to be more routine, run of the mill variety. Turnaround jumper. Run of the mill/consistent rebounding. He is more of a steady contributor and stat filler, not a momentum/game changer. (That's not an absolute, but generally speaking probably true).

    Just a tiny handful of people can even put up Yao type numbers, so he is clearly among the best. But I think he is denied elite or superstatus in people's minds because his play is less gamechanging.

    -------------

    Connecting the dots a little, and in a way that perhaps others have not . . .

    Folks criticize Yao for post season failure and use that as a basis for not valuing him as perhaps he should be valued. Post season failure alone, without considering the why's and wherefore's, is a quick label that may not get to the real issue.

    The whole concept of impactful play may also speak to regular season stats vs. playoff failure. The playoffs are matchups of good teams against good teams, good players against good players. Every rebound is fought for, every shot is contested. There are fewer routine rebounds or open shots, and the stat line that used to come easy in the regular season doesn't in the playoffs. There are a lot of factors that go into whether a team succeeds or fails in the playoffs, and it's a complete team picture. But, as to Yao individually and his role in the Rockets fortunes, perhaps his less impactful/routine production caps how far/whether we can progress in the playoffs.

    I hate to think this is true, but it's worth considering.

    Are we screwed until/unless Yao dominates?

    Does this mean Yao is not/cannot be the top dog in a championship calibur team?

    (folks, please respond to the key premises and questions, not just knee jerk YOF, TOF, SOF, __OF reactions. Key premises and questions being: are all points/rebounds the same? Is it fair that we value Yao less than his elite regular season stats?)

    Thanks. Haven't posted much in the last year, but getting the itch and have more time.
     
  6. rox4lyf

    rox4lyf Member

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    tmac? unstoppable in the playoffs? he like yao never got past the first round...
     
  7. ColomboLQ

    ColomboLQ Member

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    Yao will put up dominant numbers, but he does not put them up in a dominant way (fade aways, jumpers vs aggressive finishes at the rim, going to the basket). On that premise, you are right, not all points and rebounds are the same even if they count the same.
     
  8. ibm

    ibm Member

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    game-winning or game-changing or momentum-swing shots, rebounds, blocks, or loose balls are certainly more memorable than others. no doubt about it.

    and i'm talking just bball now. this is not yao-specific.

    but for any player, the vast majority of his production, being it in the playoffs or the regular season, are those "routine" pts, rebs, blks, etc. i bet with all kareem's pts or dream's blocks or stockton's assists, 95%+ were those routine ones. people just tend to remember the glorious ones (or sometimes the controversial ones).

    personally, i make very little differentiation b/w the "routine ones" and the "big ones". think about it. after all, they count the same towards the loss/win outcome, mathematically.

    we all complain about the team's inability of getting a rebound in the closing minutes in g7 in the utah series. but what if we grabbed one or 2 more earlier in the game say in the 3rd quarter? maybe the jazz would've scored few points less in the 3rd; and as a result in the closing minutes we may up by 4pts so that the last couple rebounds would not have been that critical?

    i guess i could be wrong. but what is the difference b/w the first bucket scored and the last, assuming everything else being equal?
     
  9. Jelle

    Jelle Rookie

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    Not going to read through all pages because the bottom line is:

    you should not undervalue Yao and there's no reason to undervalue Yao. Without Yao there is not Rockets team, there is no playoff contender and there is no leadership. McGrady can't lead a team, Yao can and he's putting in numbers every night. It's a bit frustrating sometimes to me that sometimes it looks like he's not going it his all and his regurlar lack of aggresiveness bothers me sometimes. For the rest, he's the best along with McGrady on this team and can lead us to a championship with the right players around him like Olajuwon. We should appreciate him dearly and it supprised me that a few weeks ago people suggested to trade him, that is and never will be an option in the coming 4-5 years. The Rockets got him in 2002-2003 and Olajuwon took 10 years so we should give Yao at least till 2012-2013.
     
  10. bronx43

    bronx43 Member

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    That's r****ded. So, Kareem wasn't dominant because he didn't dunk the ball every time down the court? Jordan (after first retirement) wasn't dominant because his game was heavily focused on his midrange jumper? Kobe isn't currently dominant because his game, like Jordan's, is heavily perimeter based? Dominance is the ability to score at will against the best efforts by the defense. If that means scoring on jumpers and fadeaways, then so be it.
     
  11. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    - I think the routine ones are more readily available in the regular season, as opposed to the playoffs. Likewise, they are more readily available in the first three quarters of a game, than in the 4th quarter.

    - The concept of playing better/harder in earlier quarters . . . that's what Jeff Van Gundy preached. That's the whole concept of playing hard all the time. You can try to play hard all the time, but human nature dictates there will be lapses. What is a given is that everyone plays hardest in Q4, that's why it's called winning time. At that point, you have to make the harder plays to win, don't you?

    - You can increase your margin for error by carrying a larger lead into Q4, but that type of effort across the board for a whole team is rare, and can't be counted upon (unfortunately).
     
  12. ibm

    ibm Member

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    this view reflects a bias imo.

    purely assume -

    10 powerful dunks + 8 missed ft's in the 4th quarter (20pts) from a physical and imposing (for the lack of a better word) center; vs

    7 fadeaways jumpers (out of say 10 shots) + 6 made ft's from a finesse center (also 20pts).

    which is more "dominant"? hard to say. everything else being equal, they have the same contribution to the win/loss outcome of the game.

    which is easier to remember (and thus appears on espn more)? the former.

    too simple. but you got my point.

    remember jordan's last championship shot? glorious and long-lasting to all memories. but yeah that was a jumper. hardly any flashy. and if you ask anyone lives in salt lake, even today they'd tell you that was a pushoff. if you ask me, i'd say it's 2pts that contributed to the win - JUST LIKE THE FIRST (OR SECOND, THIRD...) BUCKET the bulls had scored up to that point.

    right or wrong, i hope i've made my point.
     
  13. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    just read my posts on this page. I'd like to have your reaction to whether Yao's play is sufficiently dominant to succeed in the playoffs. If you think so, please expound on why, rather than just saying so. It adds to the discussion.
     
  14. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    Agreed, it's not the force with which the basket is scored, or the distance from which it is scored. What's important is whether the defense can stop it.

    Oftentimes, a routine low post turnaround jumper can be stopped, as opposed to an aggressive move. Likewise, a regular rebounder can be blocked out, but not a Dennis Rodman that can fight through traffic and secure the ball.
     
  15. ibm

    ibm Member

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    agreed.

    dominance is also the ability to defend - to prevent the opponent from scoring. if that happens on a great come-from-behind block, great; if that is on a force-the-opponent-to-change-his-shot-and-miss, great as well.

    (disclaimer - this post, among some others, are not yao-specific.)
     
  16. awo86

    awo86 Rookie

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    the problem with yao is he can be taken down by brute force. i think the next progression in his career is to take cheap shots at those who try to play himn physical. make them afraid. if the opponent has a scared mentality, then yao will win.
     
  17. ibm

    ibm Member

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    jvg wasn't the 1st and only one i heard preaching for playing hard(er) in the 4th. into the final stage of the game, players are tired and there won't be a 5th period to recoup for mistakes if they make some. this requires extra mental toughness and concentration. this is imo what the whole concept of "clutch" is based upon. but really it is nothing more than that.
     
  18. ibm

    ibm Member

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    good idea. but may be a lil too simplistic in actuality i'm afraid.

    and yao doesn't get taken out of the game by "brute force" (unless you and i have different definitions) - shaq or howard never took him out. yao gets taken out sometimes by fronting and/or double-teams. and that is a complex issue to solve, especially in today's league. practically you can take anyone out of a game if you want to, with the risk of taking the possible punishment.

    with what the genius coaches such as jvg and adelman have tried, i'm sure the "next step" you suggested for yao will not work.
     
  19. kalmanfilter

    kalmanfilter Rookie

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    ---while his strengths appear unimpressive due to his size
    Are his weaknesses "unimpressive due to his size"?
    You are such a good illustration of bias.
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I don't understand what you're trying to say. It doesn't make sense to call a weakness unimpressive.
     

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