Which Pitchers Should be on the Astros’ Playoff Roster?

The 4th SP in the playoffs will be some combination of McCullers, Framber, and James. My current guess for playoff pitching staff/usage:

Game 1/5: Verlander
Game 2/6: Keuchel
Game 3/7: Cole
Game 4: Valdez
7th inning (if needed): Peacock, Smith
8th inning: Pressly, McHugh
9th inning: Osuna, McCullers
Extra arms: Sipp, Rondon, James

Outside looking in, in order:
Harris
Devenski
C Perez
Deetz
Guduan
Rodgers

DL: Morton, Gustave, Martes

Rondon and James over Harris and Devenski are debatable. If Morton is healthy (unlikely imho), Rondon probably doesnt make the roster. This has 13 pitchers and they only carried 12 last year. But with Morton out, McCullers coming off injury, Rondon so shaky, and Valdez/James as unknown rookies, I think they will want an extra arm over a base runner.

 

Considering the first series is only five games with travel days... we will likely carry 11 in first round then up it in the 2nd. It won't be good if our only pinchrunning option for McCann and Gattis ends up being Maldonado

 

Is Straw play-off eligible?

 

Yes, why would you think he might not be?

 

I wondered if he was on the roster by Sept 1? There was no announcement made at that time. I know this is his first call-up.

 

Actually... I think they are capped at one player that was outside the 40-man as Gustave is on the 60-day DL

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-eligibility

Per Major League Baseball's collective bargaining agreement, players must meet certain criteria in order to be eligible for postseason play.

Players must be on the 40-man roster, the 60-day disabled list or the bereavement/family medical emergency list as of midnight ET on Aug. 31 to be eligible for their respective clubs' postseason rosters. Consequently, players that are acquired via September trades or signed as free agents in September are ineligible for postseason play.

Clubs can petition the Commissioner's Office to add any player that was not on the 40-man roster as of Aug. 31 -- provided the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing a player who has spent at least 60 days on the 60-day disabled list. The Royals were able to use this tactic to add Brandon Finnegan to their roster during the 2014 postseason, despite the fact that Finnegan was not on the 40-man roster as of Aug. 31.

Additionally, all players who have served part of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs in a given season are ineligible for postseason play that year

 

I think Morton was pulled as a precaution. He won't make another regular season start which gives him 2 weeks from today to recover. They should know by the time rosters are due if he'll be able to go. I'd bet the plan is still to put McCullers in the pen as there isn't nearly enough time to get him stretched out and that Valdez would fill the spot.

Verlander
Cole
Morton or Valdez
Keuchel

Smith, Pressley, McCullers, James, McHugh, Rondon, Osuna

add Sipp if they decide to go 12.

 

What reasoning do you have for Rondon ahead of Sipp right now?

He is pitching much better, on top of being our only lefty.

 

Is there anything specifically wrong (e.g, velocity off, pitches not moving, lost command) with Rondon? I've not been catching the end of many games so I've not seen him much. He's been hit hard lately, but I've not noticed anything wrong in the couple of times I've seen him lately. To me, it looks almost like he's tipping his pitches or being too predictable.

 

I don't disagree. I think they'll give Rondon a couple chances this week to get right. If he has a couple of clean outings, he'll be on the roster. Sipp was simply the odd man out at that point. I also wouldn't be surprised if they went with 12 to have Sipp included.

 

His command has seemed noticeably worse. He issues non competitive walks, and grooves pitches due to his inability to locate. Don't have any statistical evidence to back that up. but literally every outing has been a tightrope walk for him. Maybe he isn't pitching differently and he was just getting away with it earlier in the year.

6 straight outings in which he's allowed multiple baserunners. Over his last 7 outings he has allowed 18 baserunners in 5.1 innings, with a 50% LD rate. If you go a little further back, he hasn't had a clean inning in his last 12 outings with a 2.52 WHIP (yes WHIP, not ERA). He seems to struggle a little more with each outing, like he's getting worse not better.

It has been a major, major struggle. Hinch f**ked up putting him in that last game, because he has absolutely no business in high leverage situations right now.

 

Some bad luck (bloops and bad HPU calls - the huge walks to Young and Span in his last 2 games were total b.s.) mixed in with some poor pitches that've been getting hammered.

I hope they're able to give him a few days off soon.

 

I'd like to see Morton pitch again -- a lot of these guys don't do well with long layoffs (and I'd rather know before setting rosters if he's lost a few mph). It'd be good to get him into game ~160 and see how he looks for 70 pitches or so. McCullers is the other wild card there.

Peacock is hard to leave off -- he actually leads the team in K rate (well, just behind Josh James). There's only 10 AL relievers with 90+ Ks, and he's one of them (as are McHugh and Pressley) -- only Matt Barnes did it in fewer innings.

Amazingly, by the numbers, Will Harris is still elite -- sub 1.1 WHIP, and >10 K/9. The eyeball test on him is just not good.

 

Hopefully we only need 6 pitchers in the ALDS

Game 1

Verlander 8 innings
Osuna 1 inning

Game 2
Cole 7 innings
Pressly 1 inning
Osuna 1 inning

Off Day

Game 3
Keuchel 6 innings
McHugh 1 inning
Pressly 1 inning
Osuna 1 inning

GO AWAY CLEVELAND

 

MORTON TO MAKE NEXT START!

 

Morton/LMJ/James/Framber: 2 make the ALDS squad, 1 gets added for the ALCS if they get there

 

he's not a pitcher, get with the program

 

After almost 4 months of complete dominance by Joe Smith (0.88 ERA, 0.62 WHIP) he has gotten lit up in 2 of his last 3. Hopefully this is just a random pair of bad outings, but it's certainly not comforting that this happened just in time for October.

Likewise, after his first clean outing in a long time, Rondon had some traffic again yesterday. He will likely be on the postseason roster, but I'm not sure if I would have him on there.

These are the 5 guys I think should be seeing leveraged situations. I don't feel wonderful about Smith and McHugh right now, but they have both looked decidedly better than Rondon in September.
1.Osuna
2.Pressly
3.Sipp
4.McHugh
5.Smith

After them I would take the unknown of James raw stuff over anybody else. He isn't prepped for instant relief work, but I think he could be used the same way we used LMJ and Morton last postseason.

That would leave Rondon, Harris and Peacock for the last spot. Harris is honestly pitching the best of the 3, and in September he has been getting higher leverage work. I think I would take Harris over Rondon, but I really don't trust either of them in an important situation right now.

Whatever call he makes, it's gonna be a tough conversation for Hinch.

 

JV
Cole
Keuchel
Morton
Osuna
Pressly
McHugh
LMJ
Sipp
Smith
Rondon or Harris

Add James or Rondon/Harris if they win the series.