Where should the Roster go from here?

Since Dwight Howard announced he was signing in Houston, there has been a ton of discussion on which next great player we should trade for. The main suspects are or were (but not limited to):

Josh Smith – 27 years old @ $13,200,000
LaMarcus Aldridge – 27 years old @ $13,700,000
Ryan Anderson – 25 years old @ $8,700,00
Rajon Rondo – 27 years old @ $11,000,000

While all of those players would have represented an immediate upgrade to our starting rotation, I don’t think going after any of them via trade at this point is the best course of action for the Rockets (yes I know Josh Smith is off of the market, he is just an example).

Salery Cap

Daryl Morey made a comment after Dwight Howard agreed to sign in Houston that, “It’s at this point some teams make mistakes by locking in their rosters with highly paid players.” Signing any of the players mentioned above or another similarly compensated player would most definitely lock in the roster. You had better be sure the piece fits and puts your team over the top. There is a good chance IMO that Chandler Parsons gets his pay day next summer because it’s the right thing to do plus the Rockets would get to negotiate with him as a restricted free agent.

Ryan Anderson makes the least amount of money on that list. Add him to Harden, Howard and assuming that Parsons gets a contract worth about $10,000,000 a season, that’s about $55,000,000 million tied up in 4 players after the summer of 2014.

The Chandler Parsons Effect

I think the Rockets owe it to the team’s salary cap and the players to find out at what level they can contribute on. Last season gave indications of what some of the young players can do; now we need to see if they have improved and can perform on a consistent basis. Having a young player like Chandler Parsons on the team that has proven to be a solid building block and making only $900,000 a season has been huge in filling out the roster. Having good talent on rookie contracts making contributions on the team is imperative to keeping the roster flexible enough to make changes. If one of the young Power Forwards can turn into a good fit beside Dwight Howard it would create options with the roster that we would not have if we signed a high priced veteran to fill that spot.

The Young Players

Jeremy Lin, is the biggest lightning rod on the team and up to this point the only over paid player. Being overpaid does not necessarily mean he is a bad investment. I Jeremy can turn himself into a reliable .380 or better 3pt shooter, then you absolutely do not want to replace him. It has been discussed ad nauseum, that a great 3pt shooter is what the Rockets need in the back court with James Harden. The team needs someone that when Harden drives to the basket and kicks the ball back out to the 3 point line, we need someone that can hit the shot. Although Jeremy started the 1st couple of months as a very bad 3pt shooter, he got better as the season went on… a lot better. Jeremy is only 24 and there have been reports that he has been working on his 3pt shot this off-season. There are reasons to believe that he will be a reliable if not very good 3pt shooter this season.

Jeremy is already exceptional finishing plays when he drives to the basket. While he is not a great defender he is not typically a liability either. Do not point towards the OKC series as some sort of validation that Jeremy is not capable of playing defense because Russell Westbrook typically burns whoever he plays against, that’s why he is recognized as one to the top players in the league. Plus Jeremy was injured.

The Rockets don’t need Linsanity but the Jeremy Lin hey had last March would be ideal on this team.

PPG – 14
APG – 5
FG% - .482
3PT% - .400

That’s it, that’s all we need from him to be great fit next to James Harden. Personally I think he can do it because that was a lot closer to his norm in the 2nd half of the season then what we saw in the 1st half.

Donatas Motiejunas, Greg Smith and Terrence Jones like Jeremy Lin, needs to be given an opportunity to show if they have taken a next step and how well they fit next to Dwight.

Donatas came into the league with skills but his main problem was the fact that he got man handled in the post. With the news that he is up to 257 lbs, it’s conceivable that he can now hold his position. Two seven footers manning the post is pretty enticing. Donatas showed signs last season that he is capable of playing at a high level, he just needs to show consistency and of course strength.

Terrence Jones and Greg Smith came into the league with an NBA ready body; but like Donatas they need to show consistency. Both are very young and both have shown flashes that they can be really good.

Donatas Motiejunas - $1,361,000
Terrence Jones - $1,485,000
Greg Smith – 762,000

It’s easy to see the tremendous cap savings if one of these three guys works out playing next to Dwight.

Asik

By trading Omer Asik for a starter we significantly hurt our bench and our defense. Asik is an elite defensive player and our defense when Omer was not in the game last season was in the bottom 2 or 3 in the league. When Omer was on the floor our defense last season was top 10. I don’t think 48 minutes of top 10 defense can be overstated. Plus, Dwight and Omer were 1 and 3 in rebounds per game last season. No more 2nd chance scoring opportunities!

Dwight Howard will significantly improve an offense that did not need improving last season so adding another scoring option at the 4 is a luxury not a necessity. Defense is by far the bigger need for our team not an offensive 4. Imagine how good our 2nd team defense will be with Omer, Cisco and Beverley on the floor.


I also think Omer and Howard can play together. I base that off of the fact that when Greg Smith was in the starting rotation last year with Omer the Rockets played some very good ball. When Smith was not getting himself in foul trouble the Omer/Smith combo had some damn good games including one signature game against the LA Clippers where I think they completely handled Jordan and Griffin. Both Greg and Omer play close to the basket so there is no reason that Omer and Dwight would not be even better together in certain situations. Obviously it would be a situational pairing but I could see them getting anywhere from 6 to 8 minutes a game on the floor together.

Furthermore, Asik gives the Rockets the ability to limit Howard’s minutes to around 32 a game and keeping him fresh all season. And while Asik would not be getting 30+ minutes he could still average around 20 or more a game. And if Asik is really unhappy and the Rockets feel they have to move him at some point in the season, his value is not going to go down.

The Bench

I think it’s probably a foregone conclusion that the Rockets will cut Anderson and Ohlbrecht in order to sign Dwight Howard to a max contract. Possibly they resign them after D12 signs or maybe they look in another direction.

Furthermore, as Bima pointed out in a tweet last night they will very likely only have about $570,000 to sign Isaiah Canaan, whom they are very high on. I don’t know if $570,000 is enough to get him to sign more than a two year agreement, but we all know the Rockets typically give their 2nd rounders a little more in order to get them to agree to a 3rd year team option so the Rockets will have his bird rights. Is there another move on the horizon designed to free up additional cap space in order to give Canaan a contract similar to that of Parsons (complete with bird rights and restricted free agency)? I think there is a very high probability of that.

In my opinion the most important addition the Rockets can make is a shooting guard in the mold of Courtney Lee to come off of the bench. A defensive minded 2 guard that can shoot the 3 ball would be the perfect addition to come off the bench with Asik, Cisco and Beverly. I don’t know who is available but that I certainly hope Daryl Morey has someone in mind because while I think Anderson is serviceable I don’t think he is adequate.

Stand Pat

With the exception of adding a defensive minded 2 guard that can shoot the 3, I think the Rockets should stand pat with this Roster. Let’s see if the youth on this team takes the next logical step. If they don’t, then there is plenty of time between now and the trade deadline to further lock in the roster with another high priced player if need be. Asik will not lose any of his value and teams will begin to get desperate once the season progresses on.

 

Lin is actually someone I'm looking forward seeing this season. I think he is going to prove to be a very good 3pt shooter and he is already a damn good finisher and P&R player. His poor defense is overrated IMO because our last memory of him was getting tosted by Russell Westbrook.

 

I don't think there is any advantage to waiving Covington because he is on a minimum contract. Maybe Bima can explain it because to be honest I'm not sure.