When will the window be closed?

Very doubtful on the decade+ of superteams with 50 WAR rosters going forward. Granted, I think it is going to suck for the majority of teams for a while (though a decade is a really long time). When there is more competition for the wild cards, it will be harder to assemble 50-WAR rosters. There are just too many teams that ran themselves into the ground the past couple of years that are currently willing to sell off MLB talent to the few teams that don't suck. The Yankees and Dodgers aren't going to be push overs 5-10 years from now, but it is going to be more difficult for them to acquire talent when other teams aren't willing to trade their pitchers under control/contract.

 

Go back and look at the 2002-2010 minor league drafts if you need a refresher on why the Astros bottomed out...

As long as the current regime is drafting, and commits to signing their picks (like they have), I have no fears that the minor league system will bottom out again.

 

This may be true - but if so, I think there's going to be a major labor war / CBA restructuring in 2021 because players aren't going to be OK with a handful of major market teams always contending and most teams in rebuild mode all the time. I don't think mid-market team ownership would be OK with that either.

 

The Astros minor league system only looks good right now because the Astros had bad luck that their top guys didn't graduate or get traded.

 

Sarcasm? Sorry if I missed the inside joke.

If not sarcasm, I don't see the bad luck. Most farm systems aren't going to be producing stars year after year.... but you do need enough talent for depth and/or the occasional deadline/off-season big trade.

Drafts are so roubst/deep... in some cases, will stumble upon greatness in later rounds, but you do need to actually sign the players.

Late Hunsicker/early Pupurra drafts (likely hampered by Drayton) full on unsigned and/or low ceiling players that were singable. Also, abandonment of the international market (or other teams simply catching up to them), and plenty of lost picks due to free agent signings.

 

Astros didn't have Harper, Tucker, or Whitley in the playoffs this year. That's a lot of value still in the minors that with anything, but bad luck would have been on the MLB team.

 

Ok, but that still wouldn't lead to the farm system bottoming out.... and guys headlining the trade, along with Whitley, acquired during non-tanking years. They also saw glimpses of Josh James, got Tony Kemp fully entrenched, and hopefully have Tyler White ready to stick... while trading for Osuna, Presley.

Again, I don't see much issue with farm system replenishment if they continue to have solid drafts every year. Farm system survived the Appel bust and the Aiken/Nix/Marshall conundrum. Every contributing call-up after Bregman (and Tucker) acquired in either later rounds or years where team was much better.

 

I'd consider a bottom third minor league system as bottoming out. Alvarez and Martin would be the only good prospects in the upper levels. Not counting pitching prospects, I'm all for converting minor league talent to major league talent even if it makes the minor league system even worse after Tucker and Whitley graduate. Having good minor league teams is not too big a concern for me at the moment except for how they help the MLB talent over the next 2-5 years.While I'm opposed to burning down the farm for one shot, I'm all for burning down the farm for several more shots at the World Series.

 

I focus more on seeing how the call ups do, rather than simple ratings.

Graduating contributors like James, Kemp, White, and Valdez is more important to me (and the team).

What they may be lacking in star power, may be made up for in sheer depth...and even then, there will be a star that emerges that nobody here is even talking about at the moment (but is already in the system). And focusing on drafting college players, or guys who could be contributors sooner, is a sign of trying to expedite help for the current core.

 

This one is simple

Keep drafting well and your window doesn’t close. As already mentioned, the stars are great and cheap when you develop them yourself, but the key is getting guys like Kemp, White, Valdez, James who develop into legit contributors on a consistent basis...if you can do that, you can afford to keep your stars

I think we will see them sign Springer long term by next year, and as long as things keep going good I think they can sign Correa and Bregman also. What I don’t think we will see is them tying up long term money in pitchers, too volatile and risky. Sign the offensive stars, develop or trade for the pitching.

I see no way this team is rebuilding in 3 years

 

IMO, I don't think there's any window anymore when they already won it all. The ones who have to worry about a window are the teams that haven't won yet like the Yankees. Worrying about a window means you have to go all in at some point. The Astros can afford to be stingy and build long term.

 

As it was true in 2015, it remains true now.

This team will be as good, and go as far, as Altuve/Springer/Correa... and now Bregman take them. If they continue to build around them, while they're all here and in their primes, they will have a chance to contend.

Adding a prime Cole and one more elite year of Verlander elevated them from very good to great.

 

I don't think it will necessary to go all in at any point. Luhnow knows what he's doing when it comes to his job.

Last season was a real eye-opener. Players that really just aren't ever going to be able to pull their weight have been exposed and will be moved, I'm sure. Most have had a couple years to be observed. However, it was also a year of major successes for younger players and reduced output from guys that have shown massive potential.

To me, there's so much internally that can be improved, and so much of that is really going to fall on the training staff and batting coaches. Those were real killers last year: injuries and subpar batting across most of the team (with a few obvious exceptions). Get the HEB crew healthy again, fix their batting problems so they remember what batting in 2017 felt like, work on the consistency of threatening guys like White and Yuli, let Kemp be Kemp and Bregman be Bregman, and, hey, you've improved massively from last year before anyone's brought in. We've seen the potential, so we know it's there. They just need to solve the problems of why it tends to disappear spectacularly at times.

Conversely, I just don't think any team is going to be able to buy their way to success. Maybe for one season, but then it usually all goes to hell. Add the most important pieces as you can, but really focus on improving and/or fixing what you've got.

 

I agree. I am cautiously optimistic that the window will not close, but I do think it is important that the front office identify times to be more aggressive, which I think they have done very well. Toe that line of being aggressive and increasing the odds slightly to win every season, but then don't sacrifice the next 3-5 years to do so.

Infinite window for all Astros' fans!

 

The window will close (or begin to) when the talent leaving the club exceeds our ability to replace it with players of the same value or level of play.

This year isn't closed because between in house options and FA's, I think we can replace whats leaving. Maybe even improve over last year.

If at some future point, it happens that Verlander and Cole both leave, then it becomes hard to envision replacing two guys like that. Add that one of Springer, Bregman or Correa will leave. Maybe two.

 

I don’t know much about baseball but Luhnow came from an organization that knew how to stay competitive. I think this team is in great hands long term.

 

Agree with this...we have the infrastructure to be good for a long time. Perhaps not best in the MLB like we've been but it would take a lot IMO to need a rebuild.