What's the going price for Dragic by the trade deadline?

Let me preface this thread by saying I’d love to have Dragic on our team but only for the right price. That said, I’ve been trying to think through what the going price is for him. Rondo just got traded for what amounts to a 2016 Mid 20’s 1st Rounder + 2016 2nd rounder + a nice big in Wright that might fit long term + young player in Crowder that fits their youth movement + Nelson as salary filler. The price point was likely pushed a little higher since there were multiple bidders (Dallas and Houston). Now that one less buyer is in the market for a veteran PG, I’m wondering what the cost is now for a guy like Dragic and if that price is something we’d be willing to pay.

I. Does PHX have to trade one of their 3 PG’s and if so does it have to be Dragic?

Spoiler

The safe assumption is yes they need to move one otherwise they’d have to lock $30-35 million into the PG position or likely lose Dragic in FA this summer. The other safe assumption is that of the 3 PG’s Dragic at this point is most likely to be moved since he is the highest flight risk and seems to fit long term the least.

II. For the sake of discussion lets assume PHX is indeed looking to move Dragic at the trade deadline, what is the market rate for him?

A. Teams who would view Dragic as a significant enough upgrade at their PG position to make a trade
1) West: LAL, SAC, HOU
2) East: NYK, ORL, MIA

B. Teams Dragic is likely to resign with from that list

Spoiler

1) HOU, NYK, LAL, SAC (All these teams have at least $14 million is cap space next summer assuming Brewer dropped his PO, which therefore increases the leverage against PHX)

2) Of this list only HOU has the appeal of being a contender already and closest to competing for a championship, which reduces the risk of Dragic walking to the other 3 teams next summer should they trade for him (in addition to the fact that if we did trade for him we’d have his Bird rights).

C. Of those teams that remain, what assets do those teams have to deal?

Spoiler

1) NYK - No Picks to Offer, Shump, Hardaway

2) LAL - HOU’s 2015 1st, 2nd round pick from LAC, Nick Young + JHill + Randle

3) SAC - Their own 2017 1st round pick, McLemore, Derrick Williams

III. Do the Rockets believe Dragic on this team is worth paying slightly more than the highest bidder from that list?

Spoiler

A) Of those teams I think LAL have the most to give. They could offer our 1st round pick + Hill. I doubt they offer Young since LA see him as the one to take over for Kobe.

B) The Rockets can easily trump their offer, but we only have to offer slightly more than the highest bidder (in this case LAL). The HOU pick will likely be in the early to mid 20’s. The NOP pick will likely be in the early to mid teens. The NOP pick by itself is far better than a package of a HOU 1st + JHill.

C) Best package that PHX likely sees for Dragic that the Rockets can offer NOP + $5 Million in expiring salary (Terry fits the bill)

IV. Question for Discussion: If you were the GM would you be willing to give up at least the NOP pick + Terry or $5 Million in player salary for Dragic?

V. Question for Discussion: Can you think of other teams that would value Dragic as an upgrade + have the cap space to sign him in FA + are teams that Dragic wants to resign with + have more or better assets to deal than (NOP Pick + Terry)?

VI. Question for Discussion: Is a NOP Pick + Terry valuable enough to PHX to trade Dragic or would they think it’s better from their perspective to hold onto him and hope their team can get it together after the All-Star break or another team offers a lot more for one of their other two PG’s? Statements that Dragic is making seems to indicate he's pushing to leave asap which reduces PHX leverage in this option.

VII. Question for Discussion: If not what would you rather do with the NOP Pick?

These are really more questions rather than assertions. I'm asking because I think others here will see more than I will about the thinking of other teams in the NBA and therefore will add depth to reality of the answers to these questions.

TLDR Version

If PHX is forced to move Dragic and given the market of potential buyers and what they are able to offer, I believe a package of the NOP pick + $5 million in salary beats every other offer out there.

1) Are you willing to do that deal?

2) What other teams do you think are willing to offer more than that deal that fit the bill for viable trade partners?

3) If there aren’t any other competitors does PHX take that offer or let it ride into the summer and if that’s the case (we’d be bidding against PHX only) how much more would you be willing to give to PHX to get a deal done at the deadline?

 

I'd do that deal to but my first question is would we even need to give that much? Who are we bidding against?

 

Right now I don't see any team out there that can or is willing to beat NOP + expiring salary.

NYK: are shump/hardaway worth more than an early teens pick?
LAL: our pick and hill?

That CBS article suggests ainge could put together a package that can certainly trump ours but would dragic stay for a rebuild with so many young players? Ainge would need to secure a star locked up on a contract for awhile before being about to convince a FA to sign or resign.

What team beats an offer of just our NOP pick and fillers? It might take that one crazy GM to drive the price up even without any assurances of dragic resigning.

 

Why would PHX trade dragic for monroe when they could just get him in FA? They could get something for dragic while still get Monroe in the summer. Detroit has absolutely no leverage anymore having lost monroes bird rights.

 

If you hypothetically you only would have to give the nop pick you still have enough assets to get a solid backup C/PF.

Jones/Capella/Canaan/Johnson/nyk 2nd are all there to make such an upgrade still.

 

Signed AB, Jlin, and Ariza