What is the cost to trade for an Ace pitcher?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Rileydog, Aug 21, 2016.

  1. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    That's clearly our biggest need. We can go out and buy a good bat. For he purposes of this question, I'm assuming that Strasburg type FAs are not an option.

    Does Martez, Musgrove/Feliz, AJ reed and Tucker/Cameron get you a Sale or Archer? That would be two strong pitching prospects and two strong hitting prospects, with some of them having positive results in limits MLB Exposure.

    Is that enough to land a Sonny Gray, a former ace quality with a down year.

    The premise here is that Bregman looks like a foundational piece, so we now have four. One signing of a competent OF/DH bat lengthens the lineup and would be high impact and doable. Maybe gurriel is it, or just an incremental improvement over Rasmus. We still need a proven bat and that can be bought.
     
  2. Buck Turgidson

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    Strasburg resigned and there's nobody else on the FA market.

    We don't really know what the market will look like this winter, neither the who or the how much.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    Is there that much of a difference between Archer and Keuchel? Both are aces that are having miserable seasons this year. There's no telling whether either will rebound next year or not but it seems like a lateral move more-or-less. Sale would be a different story.
     
  4. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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    Yep. Even less difference between Keuchel and Gray.

    For either one, the difference would be in having 2 of them instead of just 1. In theory, the odds of 1 getting back to form is better if you have both. But I sure wouldn't spend assets towards Gray. Archer would be a maybe if cheap enough vs. alternatives (that may not exist)--he's been more stable than the other 2 overall this year.
     
  5. what

    what Member

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    The only true aces that I would be comfortable with trading for would be:
    madison bumgarner, David Price and Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale.

    Guys I would love but not break the bank over:
    Cole Hammels
    adam wainwright

    That's about it.
     
  6. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    Re Keuchel, Gray and Archer, the similarities are there, but gray and Archer seem to have more "swing and miss" stuff, especially Archer. Also, if you land one of them, you have two potential Ace horses and raise your upside on pitching staff.

    Any guesses as to the cost of those guys or Sale? Would my propose package be laughable, a reasonable opener, or maybe a deal clincher.
     
  7. Progs

    Progs Member

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    I'm ready as a fan to trade anyone in the Minors for a Sale type pitcher. On offense Astros pretty much have their foundation in the Majors all ready.
     
  8. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    While a #1 pitcher maybe our biggest need, there is little doubt that of all the things to try to get, this one is probably the hardest.

    Astros AL Rank

    #4 ERA
    #7 RS

    No, ERA and RS dont tell the whole story. And while an eye should always be open for a #1 SP, the more likely area to improve our team is offensively.
     
  9. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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    Seems like an offer that would get the job done for Sale. Not sure I could stomach giving up both Musgrove and Martes, and both Reed and Tucker. Perhaps if you drop it to the version of your offer that's Martes/Feliz/Reed/Cameron, I'd be more ok with it--but then it feels short for Sale.

    For Archer (or esp Gray), I think all of those seem like a bit too much.

    All of these hypotheticals hinge on the guys actually being available. Sale isn't getting moved even for that package unless the White Sox decide to look longer term. Otherwise, they'd rather have Sale for 2017 as well
     
  10. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    In my opinion it'll be a little tough if we're taking Bregman off the table. We don't have a ton of the flashy 5-tool or TOR potential prospects (no one does) that appeal to other fanbases. Like it or not fan perception somewhat matters. We do have a lot of very good prospects.

    I'd expect a team like Tampa to be more progressive; I imagine their talent evaluation is more similar to ours. Joe Musgrove is probably a lot more attractive to Tampa than the ChiSox. Flipside, a guy like Lance McCullers is way more attractive to the ChiSox than Tampa given his upside but durability issues.

    A package of AJ Reed, Martes, Kyle Tucker and Franklyn Perez/Forrest Whitley certainly gets a discussion for nearly any available ace going. That's a ton of premium talent.
     
  11. Progs

    Progs Member

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    Kyle Tucker is still a year and a half away, minimum. I'm willing to trade him away even it hurts. I think next year will be his breakthrough year on Lancaster and maybe gets promoted to Corpus a year from now.
     
  12. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Be prepaid to pay! Most are under control multiple years.

    Not much in the way of free agents.

    Chris Sale
    •16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
    •2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18
    •award bonuses, including $15,000 for All-Star selection

    Jose Quintana
    •16:$3.8M, 17:$6M, 18:$8.35M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout)
    •if eligible for arbitration as a Super 2 after 2014 (met 11/14), salaries increase to $3.4M in 2015, $5.4M in 2016, $7M in 2017, $8.85M in 2018
    •2020 option increases to $14M with Cy Young award in 2014-19 or $13M with second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2014-19

    Julio Teheran
    •16:$3.3M, 17:$6.3M, 18:$8M, 19:$11MM, 20:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    •award bonuses, including $50,000 for All-Star selection

    Jose Fernandez
    •Arbitration eligible in 2017; FA in 2019

    Masahiro Tanaka
    •14-19: $22M annually. 20:$23M
    •Tanaka may opt out of contract after 2017 season
    •full no-trade protection
    •perks: $35,000 moving allowance, $0.1M housing allowance, interpreter at salary of $85,000, 4 first-class round trip airline tickets between Japan & NY

    Alex Cobb
    •Arbitration eligible in 2017; FA in 2018

    Drew Smyly
    •Arbitration eligible in 2017; FA in 2019

    Chris Archer
    •16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout)
    •if Archer does not qualify for arbitration as a Super 2 after 2015 season, guarantee is reduced to $20M (16:$1M, 17:$3M, 18:$4.75M, 19:$7M)

    Jake Odorizzi
    •Arbitration eligible in 2017; FA in 2020

    Zack Greinke
    •$18M signing bonus (paid in $3M installments each 5/31, 2016-21)
    •16:$31M, 17:$31M, 18:$31M, 19:$31.5M, 20:$32M, 21:$32M
    •total of $62.5M in salary is deferred ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), to be paid in five installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26
    •under MLB calculation, deferrals reduce the present-day value of the contract to $193,849,298
    •assignment bonus: $2M if traded
    •limited no-trade protection: may block trades to 15 clubs
    •perks: four premium season tickets (two paid for by Greinke), hotel suite on road trips

    Sonny Gray
    •Arbitration eligible in 2017; FA in 2020
     
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  13. what

    what Member

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    I would trade Lance Mccullers and George Springer and a top rookie for Clayton Kershaw and would not think twice about it.


    Kershaw is a hall of fame pitcher. If i could get Kershaw I would do that. The gap between Kershaw and Mccullers is huge, is the reason why.
     
  14. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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    who is talking about kershaw? there is no indication he's even slightly available.
     
  15. Rox Addict

    Rox Addict Contributing Member

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    Volquez is intriguing !!!!!
     
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  16. PavlovsDog

    PavlovsDog Member

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    Which is why he clearly stated 'if I could get Kershaw'.

    I assume the point was that none of our players are untouchable if the return is right.
     
  17. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    First, Kershaw trade is 100% moot (and it would require a helluva lot more than Springer/LMJ/top prospect, probably along the lines of Correa/Springer/LMJ/3 top prospects. That price may seem absurd, but it would take an absurd price for a contending team to trade the best pitcher of the generation, much less one of the greatest pitchers ever.

    Second, acquiring an ace depends on 1) what level of ace you are seeking, and 2) what the other team is seeking. If it's OAK/TAM/etc (i.e., a rebuilding team with low payroll), they'd probably want a boat load of elite prospects. If it's a contending team, get ready to lose MLB studs, like Springer, LMJ, or Bregman.

    I think a trade for a struggling ace on a rebuilding team may be the best move, that way we would not have to lose any key MLB pieces. Could OAK or TAM turn down Whitley, Reed, Tucker, Martes, and Paulino for Gray or Archer? I think that would be the price, which is palatable if we can sign Lourdes.
     
  18. Progs

    Progs Member

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    Wouldn't shock me if we trade for two pretty good pitchers comparable to the signings of Drabek and Swindell. Since the free agent class is weak. Giving that Luhnow was quiet during the trading deadline and the uncertainty of LMJ In case he has Tommy John Surgery.
     
  19. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    Drabek was up and down and had a very disappointing first year. Swindell was pretty bad here the whole time.
     
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  20. Progs

    Progs Member

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    I was talking about the type of players they were when the Astros signed them.
     
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