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What happened? We miss Ariza, Mbah a Moute, and yes -- Ryan Anderson

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Zergling, Dec 9, 2018.

  1. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    It's not really that complicated -- look at 2017-18 top Rockets' rotations of at least 30 minutes sorted by best net rating:

    https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advan...1610612745&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*GE*30

    A few things become obvious:
    • Every rotation we played over 30 minutes with a positive net rating featured at least one player amongst Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Ryan Anderson
    • If you look at our 10 best rotations by net rating, 5 of them featured TWO players amongst the trio
    • 4 of those 5 rotations included Anderson
    So while Anderson was unplayable later in the season and throughout the playoffs, that doesn't change the fact that his ability to stretch the floor to extreme levels and rebound was still an asset for us throughout the regular season as these net ratings show.

    Looking to this year, we failed (so far) to adequately replace those players. Even the Ryno replacement (Anthony) surprisingly proved to be a disaster.

    Yes, it's time to admit we vastly underestimated the loss of those players during the offseason -- including Ryan Anderson. They just weren't as replaceable as we thought they'd be.
     
  2. seeingred

    seeingred Member

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    Correlation =/= Causation
     
  3. foggy94

    foggy94 Member

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    Ryan Anderson's situation was untenable. He had to go, the guy was afraid to shoot, he cratered. There was something going on there, maybe the FO trying to trade him for a year plus. Either way, he looks like a shell of his former self out there, he's shooting like 20% in Phoenix too.

    As for Mbah a Mouth, he's played 4 games this year. I've seen people saying Tilman was too cheap to keep him, and Screamin' A and people on this board saying CP3 was greedy and a paycut could have gone towards keeping Luc. This just isn't true, he signed with the Clippers for their MLE. We have already used half of our MLE and we're gonna try to use the rest on buyout guys. You can say that was the wrong decision, but money has nothing to do with it. The money is gonna be spent one way or another.

    I know the OP doesn't mention these issues, I just wanna get out ahead of the replies. You're absolutely right, we miss last season's Ariza, Mbah a Moute and even Ryno. But look at their production this year on their new teams, do those players even exist anymore?
     
  4. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Look , no matter how bad those guys are playing in their new locations doesn't matter one iota.

    What matters is their production was not replaced at all.


    Ariza , Luc and Ryno combined for 85.6 minutes per game last year. Their replacement this year - Ennis is averaging 25.6

    You replaced three quality contributors with one guy and a couple of failures who are either glued to the bench or out of the league. (MCW & Melo).

    You don't necessarily need Ariza , Luc and Ryno - You just need players who can contribute what they were giving on a regular basis last season.
     
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  5. Furious Jam

    Furious Jam Contributing Member

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    Um, we are paying Brandon Knight over $14 million and getting literally nothing in return. Don't you think that getting zero from your 4th highest paid player might have something to do with it, whether that player is Brandon Knight, Ryan Anderson, or anyone else?
     
  6. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    You are correct. My point wasn't to say Murray screwed for not keeping those 3 players, but that their impact was pretty significant on the 65-win season. The reason we are struggling this year is we don't have the equivalent of last year's trio -- at least not yet.
     
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  7. foggy94

    foggy94 Member

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    It's a good point well made Corrosion. I completely agree, Morey failed this off season. He's been interested in MCW for years according to the rumours and the same goes for Melo, and all the evidence showed these were bad moves. Even Melo's catch and shoot numbers weren't particularly impressive so I don't know why we thought that could be his saving grace, and the defence was never going to be acceptable.

    I don't get Morey, this isn't the first time he's brought in players that just completely abandon his own 'Moreyball' philosophy. He once had guys like Brewer and Josh Smith playing heavy minutes and both were bad 3 point shooters. It felt like in 16-17 he finally decided to really go for it and dedicate the off season to bringing in gunners, hence the Gordon and Anderson singings, and trading for Lou Williams mid season. Now this year we abandon that again and bring in MCW, the worst shooter in the league. He has the formula, he just doesn't always follow it. It's frustrating.
     
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  8. foggy94

    foggy94 Member

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    Yep, completely with you. We don't always have to offer our own suggestions or answers when we criticise. I don't know what I would have done better, but it was awful.
     
  9. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    For real? Can I get a source on Morey being interested in MCW for years? I just want to know where that rumor came from.
     
  10. foggy94

    foggy94 Member

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    I swear I've just seen that on here over the years, can't recall a particular thread or article. Could be wrong .
     
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  11. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    We hope our scrubs outperform their contracts.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I'm not upset at all that he tried MCW and Melo. They were minimum contracts - Both worth the gamble. Best case , you catch lightning in a bottle , worst case you simply cut or trade them and you lose virtually nothing.

    What bothers me is that is all he did - Three guys on minimum deals (Ennis is also a min contract). Didn't even use the T-MLE - part went to Clark and Hartenstein - but ~$3.8m is unspent.

    All of it points to Tilman being a cheap ass. We'll get confirmation of this soon enough. IF Knight is sent out at the expense of assets for little to no return to get under the tax , its on Tilman.
     
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  13. elmotsangtt

    elmotsangtt Member

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    Cp3 sucks after getting big contract. He should score 20 plus in each game
     
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  14. DM'sVP

    DM'sVP Member

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    The issue isn’t losing these players. The issue is how they replaced them.

    Ariza turned into Ennis. Ennis can’t shoot and his level of communication is nowhere near where Ariza’s was. Not only did Ariza know where to be on defense he also helped get everyone else there as well. Ariza’s shooting from the corner is sorely missed.

    Anderson turned into Melo. While this looked like it was a positive on paper in reality it was big negative. To compound the issue they did not have a back up plan when the Melo experiment didn’t work. Now there is no one on the roster to take those minutes.

    Luc turned into MCW. MCW makes me think that I have a chance to win ROY.

    The rockets need a starting SF and 2 capable to above average bench players to save this season. Stay tuned folks.
     
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  15. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة
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    Chris Paul was never that kind of scorer.

    Last year - 18.6 ppg; This year - 16 ish ppg

    At his best

    Year 07-08 - 21.1 ppg
    08-09 - 22.8 ppg

    He has 12 seasons (out of 14) without scoring over 20 ppg.
     
    #15 daywalker02, Dec 10, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
  16. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance
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    At that macro level that is it. Not that Ariza and Luc are not here.....just that they were not "replaced" properly. Morey took some chances and they burned him (Melo & MCW and to a lesser extent Ennis). And here we are.

    So it is up to Morey to rectify those decisions and make the right decisions this time.
     
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  17. psaman17

    psaman17 Member

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    Hit the nail. What a disastrous off season this was.
     
  18. Williamson

    Williamson SHUMPERT ONLY FAN
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    I agree with this basic premise but have some additional thoughts I'd like to pile on.

    Last year Trevor Ariza shot .412 for field goal %. His 3 point % was at .368.

    James Ennis is shooting .485 from the field. His 3 point % is just a hair under Ariza's at .363.

    I don't think his shooting is the problem, but I will give you that Ennis doesn't seem to be in the corner much (seems like Tucker has taken that role). And I also agree he isn't the defensive leader Ariza was; but I do think his defense has been good over-all. It would definitely be preferable if he were in that Luc role rather than the Ariza role, but over-all I've been satisfied with his production and really don't believe that James Ennis is the issue.

    I hate to agree with this but I do. It's really hard to acknowledge that losing Anderson is hurting us, but through out the regular season last year, despite his shooting inconsistency and despite the fact he often was afraid to take the shot, Anderson still managed to space the floor very effectively. This year we aren't spacing the floor anywhere near as well which is compounded by the fact that Eric Gordon (our other long distance sniper) has been shooting abysmally. I don't know how we find someone who can help us space the floor (and give us another 30 minutes a game of production so PJ and others aren't having to play so many minutes) at the 4 but I sure would love to see if we can't pry away a guy like Marvin Williams. I think he could help here and he's also known for being a very sound defensive player.

    In theory it's true that MCW was signed when Luc was let to walk, but in practice it's been guys like Gary Clark and Danuel House taking those minutes. There is obviously a drop off in production there but it isn't quite as massive as you're seeming to indicate. So basically I agree with you but think you went a bit hyperbolic here.

    Also, MCW for MVP.

    I'd add that Nene was pretty reliable last season even if we couldn't play him in back to backs. Now we are a quarter into the season and he's just starting to work his way back into playing shape. I've seen others suggest we should attempt to trade for Bazemore and Dedmon in Atlanta and this, or a move like this, would be huge. It should address the wing issue and ensure we have a reliable back up center.

    That said, unless Eric Gordon and CP3 round into form none of this even matters. Eric Gordon has been one of the biggest negatives on this team this year. And with him shooting so terribly and no floor spacing 4, our spacing has really hurt Harden and CP3's iso game and everything that came from that last season.
     
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  19. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

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    The issue with Ryno wasn't his play, he most definately helped us to 65 wins and a top seed. The issue was he worth his price, you can't have such a one dimensional player. That and his home arena issues.
     
  20. Elephant810

    Elephant810 Member

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    The good news is... it’s still relatively early in the season. The Rockets have shown flashes of last years team but have been inconsistent. Morey has pulled rabbits out of a hat before and since the core is still intact, he doesn’t necessarily need to be a magician this time around. Just needs to find one or two solid rotational pieces that can shoot and switch on defense. Knights contract and some of the fillers and picks should suffice in acquiring such players...
     
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