What do you think of the Rockets offensive philosophy?

History is filled with guys who mastered the mid-range game and won a championship, such and Jordan, Sam Cassell, Kobe Bryant, Rip Hamilton to name just a few. However, some may argue that defenses have evolved, many coaches are employing perpetual motion defenses where there is constant rotating which is almost like a zone defense but better. When defensive philosophies evolve, offensive philosophies must evolve to match it. Enter the Houston Rockets.

Daryl Morey is famous around the league for his analytical approach to the game, and even though he denies it, there is speculation that he is the mastermind behind the Rockets offensive philosophy which is to cut down on mid-range shots while increasing the amount of 3pt shots. As you can see in the image below, the Rockets take less shots from 16-23 feet than any other team in the league:

If you do the math it actually makes sense why the Rockets are doing this, 45% from mid-range is the same thing as a 30% from 3-pt. 50% from mid-range (very, very rare) is the same thing as 33.3% from 3-pt (very common).

Alot of teams seem to have been dabbling with this philosophy, but the Rockets have taken it to a new level by averaging only 9.8 shots per game from 16-23 feet. In contrast, the 76ers take 24 shots in that range. It just so happens that the 76ers rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Rockets ranked an impressive 6th despite being the youngest team with a league leading 15.8 turnovers per game according to www.ESPN.com.

After looking into it further, I found some very interesting studies including THIS article about the correlation between the ratio of threes to mid-range jumpers and its effect on team offense, and the correlation is undeniable despite a few exceptions as you can see by the chart presented in the article:

The obvious exceptions you can see there begin with the the Golden State Warriors who boast one of the best shooting back-courts of all-time, and the Utah Jazz with Al Jefferson who frequently forces opposing centers to come out of the paint to defend his jump shot which makes it easier for his team mates to score, and the OKC Thunder with Kevin Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka scorching defenses with their abilities, but those few teams are the exceptions, not the rule.

Don't get me wrong, I think the mid-range shot is still useful if you have the right players for it. Chris Bosh takes the other team's shot-blocker away from the rim with his 50% shooting on long 2's, and Tony Parker drives his defenders crazy chasing him around screen after screen catching and popping like it's automatic. However, I don't think the Rockets have the right players for it which is arguably a blessing in disguise. We score in all the right places, we're 2nd in the league at points in the paint, 4th at free throws made, and 2nd at 3 pointers made. If we cut down on our turnovers, and maybe upgrade Asik (ranks 55th at pick and roll man efficiency) with Dwight (ranks 9th at the pick and roll man efficiency), then that will make Harden (ranks 4th at pick and roll handler efficiency) and all our 3pt shooters even harder to stop.

Alot of people see a lack of a mid-range game as a weakness, but if there was any such thing as a weakness that can be turned into a strength this is it. Why do you think Harden has a higher TS% than Kobe? Just look at the way they score: Harden=more free throws and 3's. Kobe=more mid-range shots. I love Kobe, he's way more talented than Harden, but Harden has a smarter shot selection. Move over old school, make way for James Harden and the Houston Rockets!

 

There's no one in the NBA who shoots 55% or better from that range, Bosh leads the league at exactly 53%. Next best is Kevin Garnett at 47%.

A big part of why Bosh and Garnett is shooting at such a high rate from that range is because they're only taking wide open shots, but guards aren't going to be as wide open out there. Even Stephen Curry (arguably the greatest shooter of all-time) shoots only 44% out there, and Kobe Bryant shoots 40%.

 

Fun fact: The two years we won a championship were both years we led the league in 3's.