Was December fools gold? Given our recent losses in the month of January, I am attempting to answer the question posed above. Specifically, I am interested in knowing whether the easier schedule in December does not provide an accurate representation of this team. About a two month ago, I started a thread with some statistical analysis regarding offensive efficiency (OE) and defensive efficiency (DE) as a mechanism to determine a teams worth (of course with the main interest being where do the Rockets fare). Later on, I followed up with this thread. I am basically evaluating the teams efforts about every 13 games or so. In the first post (13 games, 3-10 record for 13 game stretch), I stated that Rockets were ranked 18th in the league. In the second post (26 games total, 8-5 record for 13 games stretch added), I stated that the Rockets were ranked 14th in the league. In this post (40 games, ~mid season, 5-9 record for 14 game stretch added), the Rockets are ranked 16th. In other words, that number suggest that either the Rockets are a low playoff seed or in the hunt for a ticket into the playoffs. Simple put, we are a pretender team! Efficiency Chart Here is a plot of normalized OE versus normalized DE. For clarification, the higher the OE the better the team is in offensive end and conversely, the lower the DE the better the team is in the defensive end. <table style="width:auto;"><tr><td><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/kF1aLQKItZXmXOeUkTJtDw?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/_8u4A05PwTfw/TTw2LkEIjLI/AAAAAAAACQw/e4D5bfiduYg/s640/nba10_pr_norm_chart40.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td style="font-family:arial,sans-serif; font-size:11px; text-align:right">From <a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/jsmee2000/PowerRankings?feat=embedwebsite">Power Rankings</a></td></tr></table> For comparison here is the chart from a month ago. <table style="width:auto;"><tr><td><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/c8JIn-VRA0DoiBUue9B43A?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_8u4A05PwTfw/TRMyCL3CHEI/AAAAAAAACQE/69nYwIk7Ivw/s640/nba10_pr_norm_chart26.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td style="font-family:arial,sans-serif; font-size:11px; text-align:right">From <a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/jsmee2000/PowerRankings?feat=embedwebsite">Power Rankings</a></td></tr></table> Defense It is evident by comparison of the two charts that either two things have occurred: Either the Rockets declined defensively or that the league average defensive efficiency improved. Typically, defense is very tight at the beginning of the NBA season. As the season progresses the defensive efficiency tends to decrease at a slow rate. When the playoffs arrive defenses tend to tighten a bit. Comparing the numbers for defensive efficiency for 26 games and 40 games, the league has worsened by 0.02 (this is a statistical anomaly in all the years I have been measuring this). The Rockets defensive efficiency worsened by 0.45. Note that during this 14 game stretch, Chuck Hayes did not play in eight of these games!!! During Hayes absence the team posted an average decline in the defensive efficiency of 0.5/game. We can't argue the value that Chuck Hayes brings to this team (especially, with his improved offensive skills this season). Offense It is sad but our main staple...OFFENSE... is declining as well. It is a known fact that offensive efficiency increases as the season progresses (about or 0.05/game or 0.18/week - reference. Ironically, comparing the numbers for offensive efficiency for 26 games and 40 games, the league and the Rockets have worsened by 0.05 and 0.45, respectively. With Chuck Hayes gone the team's average offensive efficiency dropped by 0.22/game. To make it worse, only 5 out of the 14 teams the Rockets played during that last stretch were in the top 15 in DE. In other words, the Rockets choked! Overall Compared to the rest of the league, the Rockets have worsened compared to approximately a month ago (with only 26 games into the season). Animated Efficiency Chart Here is a chart that only includes the Rockets for the first 40 games of the season (it does not include games with the Hawks, Bucks, Knicks, Grizzs, and Magic - why? -because Indiana has only played 40 games). Basically, there is only one red dot that you can follow to see how the Rockets have moved through out the season. The red dot is encapsulated by a blue ellipsoid that indicates that amount of error in the measurement. Therefore, as the season progresses the error will get smaller as more data is presented to the algorithm. This means that the average (the red dot) contains less error (is more accurate representation of where the Rockets are at). Finally, in the lower left quadrant you shall find the score of the particular game played. It is looping so it will start again when you don't see the blue ellipsoid. I have posted a slow (1 fps) and a fast (5 fps) gif. <a href="http://s1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/?action=view&current=hou_oede_40_games.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/hou_oede_40_games.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> <a href="http://s1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/?action=view&current=hou_oede_40_games_fast.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/hou_oede_40_games_fast.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> Power Rankings The Rockets have played a total of 45 games but teams like Indiana have only played 40 games so I only include the league minimum of games played. Here are the power rankings with 40 games into the season for all three metrics discussed in the previous threads. Note that the more data that is presented the smaller the blue ellipsoid could become for each team. Consequently, the more robust these rankings become. <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>OE, DE</th><th>OE, DE, SOS</th><th>OE, DE, SOS, EXP</th></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>1. Miami Heat</td><td>1. Miami Heat</td><td>1. Miami Heat</td></tr> <tr><td>2. San Antonio Spurs</td><td>2. San Antonio Spurs</td><td>2. San Antonio Spurs</td></tr> <tr><td>3. Los Angeles Lakers</td><td>3. Los Angeles Lakers</td><td>3. Los Angeles Lakers</td></tr> <tr><td>4. Boston Celtics</td><td>4. Boston Celtics</td><td>4. Boston Celtics</td></tr> <tr><td>5. Orlando Magic</td><td>5. Orlando Magic</td><td>5. Orlando Magic</td></tr> <tr><td>6. Chicago Bulls</td><td>6. Chicago Bulls</td><td>6. Chicago Bulls</td></tr> <tr><td>7. Atlanta Hawks</td><td>7. Denver Nuggets</td><td>7. Denver Nuggets</td></tr> <tr><td>8. Denver Nuggets</td><td>8. Atlanta Hawks</td><td>8. Atlanta Hawks</td></tr> <tr><td>9. Utah Jazz</td><td>9. Dallas Mavericks</td><td>9. Dallas Mavericks</td></tr> <tr><td>10. Dallas Mavericks</td><td>10. Utah Jazz</td><td>10. Utah Jazz</td></tr> <tr><td>11. Oklahoma City Thunders</td><td>11. New Orleans Hornets</td><td>11. Oklahoma City Thunders</td></tr> <tr><td>12. New Orleans Hornets</td><td>12. Oklahoma City Thunders</td><td>12. New Orleans Hornets</td></tr> <tr><td>13. Portland Trailblazers</td><td>13. Portland Trailblazers</td><td>13. Portland Trailblazers</td></tr> <tr><td>14. New York Knicks</td><td>14. Memphis Grizzlies</td><td>14. New York Knicks</td></tr> <tr><td>15. Memphis Grizzlies</td><td>15. New York Knicks</td><td>15. Memphis Grizzlies</td></tr> <tr><td>16. Houston Rockets</td><td>16. Houston Rockets</td><td>16. Houston Rockets</td></tr> <tr><td>17. Philadelphia 76ers</td><td>17. Philadelphia 76ers</td><td>17. Philadelphia 76ers</td></tr> <tr><td>18. Milwaukee Bucks</td><td>18. Milwaukee Bucks</td><td>18. Milwaukee Bucks</td></tr> <tr><td>19. Phoenix Suns</td><td>19. Phoenix Suns</td><td>19. Phoenix Suns</td></tr> <tr><td>20. Los Angeles Clippers</td><td>20. Los Angeles Clippers</td><td>20. Los Angeles Clippers</td></tr> <tr><td>21. Indiana Pacers</td><td>21. Indiana Pacers</td><td>21. Golden State Warriors</td></tr> <tr><td>22. Golden State Warriors</td><td>22. Golden State Warriors</td><td>22. Indiana Pacers</td></tr> <tr><td>23. Charlotte Bobcats</td><td>23. Charlotte Bobcats</td><td>23. Toronto Raptors</td></tr> <tr><td>24. Toronto Raptors</td><td>24. Toronto Raptors</td><td>24. Charlotte Bobcats</td></tr> <tr><td>25. Detroit Pistons</td><td>25. Detroit Pistons</td><td>25. Minnesota Timberwolves</td></tr> <tr><td>26. Minnesota Timberwolves</td><td>26. Minnesota Timberwolves</td><td>26. Detroit Pistons</td></tr> <tr><td>27. Washington Wizards</td><td>27. Washington Wizards</td><td>27. Washington Wizards</td></tr> <tr><td>28. Sacramento Kings</td><td>28. Sacramento Kings</td><td>28. Sacramento Kings</td></tr> <tr><td>29. New Jersey Nets</td><td>29. New Jersey Nets</td><td>29. New Jersey Nets</td></tr> <tr><td>30. Cleveland Cavaliers</td><td>30. Cleveland Cavaliers</td><td>30. Cleveland Cavaliers</td></tr></table> Last but not least... Here are two plots that provide the Rockets Power Ranking as a function of games played for all three metrics. In addition, the strength of schedule is included. Our schedule is not the hardest but it is considered to be a tough schedule as it is above the dotted line. <table style="width:auto;"><tr><td><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/24QevrA2P3o4Wkl713L5rw?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_8u4A05PwTfw/TTw2Lzmy8uI/AAAAAAAACQ0/hs_mMjVwISc/s640/nba10_pr_rockets.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td style="font-family:arial,sans-serif; font-size:11px; text-align:right">From <a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/jsmee2000/PowerRankings?feat=embedwebsite">Power Rankings</a></td></tr></table> It is interesting to note, that all three of the measurement schemes (OE/DE, OE/DE/SOS, OE/DE/SOS/EXP) provide similar results. Very seldom there are huge discrepancies between the metrics (i.e., like games 4, 5, 18). That is because OE and DE are pretty robust measurements. Conclusion <u>So was December fools gold? Not necessarily, the Rockets have a slight decline in their ratings but are still performing within the expected output.</u> The schedule has gotten a little tougher and the Rockets dropped two spots in the rankings. It is clear that this team was designed to be a compliment to Yao Ming; however, this team although the record does not reflect it, is a first round caliber playoff team without him. Imagine how much better our defense would have been if Yao was still in the middle. Of course, the point is moot. It is obvious that Daryl constructed a team that would have made the Rockets into contenders had Yao been healthy. Nonetheless, one question remains unanswered whether Yao was still playing or not... who would be our closer? No one... because what this team lacks is a closer to win those close games that we have been losing all season long. What will happen at the trade deadline? I don't know but I sure do hope that it is something interesting that will make us better and flexible for the future. Many things may be uncertain, but what we do know is that the Rockets are stuck in pretender mode.
I wouldn't call it fools gold. We won in December, even when not at full strength with Aaron out, because we had the easiest schedule in that month. Everyone knew that January would get much, much tougher, and it was necessary for us to get a lot of wins in December to "weather the storm". We also hoped that Brooks would come back and play like he's supposed to, and that the younger players would figure things out and get more consistent. Those things didn't happen.
Ha ha...I don't think it is fools gold either. I got the title from DD - he stated something alike early in January. Although, December was our easiest schedule it certainly was not the easiest schedule in the league.
It wasn't fools gold. It was just a reaffirmation of where the Rockets are. We aren't a playoffs team but we aren't the worst. The team is a 7'0', healthy Yao, from being very very good. Chuck plays good defense but unfortunately he's not tall enough to get the rebound and Scola just sucks on the defensive end. Get rid of Brooks as well and have someone that can run the 2nd unit and our bench will stop sucking.
Really? I thought it was the easiest schedule for the month of December, but I could be mistaken. "Fools gold" to me means that people are wrongly convinced we're going to make the playoffs and maybe make some noise. I don't think anyone was so optimistic about our chances after December, because it was widely recognized how easy the schedule was and that things were going to get tougher. We had to win those games just to keep our heads above water. I mean, we gave ourselves a chance to make the playoffs, but that doesn't make it fools gold if we later waste away that chance.
We are not out of the playoffs yet, even though we are five games back. Denver is going to implode after they trade Melo, and the #8 spot will open up. Plus, our schedule will ease up. We need to make a playoff push and get our young players some playoff experience, even if it is only a few games.
For what purpose do the Rockets need to "get their young player some playoff experience," when they are not even getting consistent regular season experience right now. Doing what you propose means going balls to the wall with the veterans and does nothing for the young players on this team.
