For those of you that dont mind placing a bet and waiting 6 months, this sure does seem like a lock to me. There is no way we don't finish this season better than .500.
U could probably catch a nice middle if you bet the over now....wait until we get off to a nice start (hopefully)...then the over/under will go up after May 1 when Clemens gets back.
It seems to me the bet is whether the Rocket will be in a Houston uniform next year. If he is, the Astros should go over. Otherwise, if I really had to put down some money, I'd do so on the under. The Astros do get Berkman for the whole year next year, but are they going to get career years out of Ensberg and Pettite again? If both player decline even slightly, and without Clemens, this team is not a playoff contender. Especially with the central division looking tougher now than usual.
Once we get off to our slow start, I'll put 20 bucks on us reaching the World Series again. Then I'll laugh all the way to the bank (or poor house). *checks the odds on Rockets winning the WCF again* Houston Rockets 15-1 Holy crap, just a month ago I put 5 bucks down on 125-1 odds
They don't have to get a career year out of Ensberg again. The reason they were so dependent on Ensberg having the year he had was because they were running one of the threesome of Burke/Palmeiro/Lamb as a starter every game. And not just as a starter... a starter at LF/1B, positions that essentially require great offensive production. With Wilson, Ensberg can afford to decline slightly. Even if Ensberg slips somewhat, the improvement from Burke/Palmeiro/Lamb to Wilson will certainly offset that. And that's not even mentioning the potential for Bagwell to play, or having Berkman for a full season while completely healthy, etc. Also, while there's the possibility Pettitte could decline, it's far from a certainty. Personally, I wasn't all that surprised with his career year. Moving from the AL to the NL combined with a (somewhat) healthy left arm for the first time in years... of course his production improved. Also, it's very likely that Wandy and Zeke improve from their rookie seasons, or that their replacements (Buchholz, Nieve?) outperform what they did a season ago. The division might have some slight improvement from the bottom, but I don't think it's that much upgraded on the whole. This is the first time in a while that I have some expectations that this team can compete for the division championship. Yes, the Cards get Rolen back... but they lose Walker, Sanders, Grudzielanek and parts of the bullpen. They also have Edmonds getting a year older. People love to point to the Pujols-Edmonds-Rolen trio to explain the Cards success, but a huge, huge part of it was the depth in that lineup in terms of hitters from 1-8... that's taken a big step back this offseason. Casual baseball fans, in general, are dumb... and that's who Vegas is setting the line for. They explain everything in terms of a few star players, and don't look at how the team actually won their games. The Astros were a World Series team last season... made some improvements in the offseason... and only lost a pitcher for which the team won 15 out of 35 starts. And they're going to finish under .500?!?!?! This is the easiest bet I've ever seen... and I thank rocketfat so much for pointing it out. Barring some ridiculous injuries (see Rockets), this is the easiest money any of us will ever make.
