As of March 20 ODDS TO WIN THE 2016-17 NBA FINALS Golden State Warriors 1/1 Cleveland Cavaliers 2/1 San Antonio Spurs 6/1 Houston Rockets 15/1 Boston Celtics 35/1 Los Angeles Clippers 40/1 Toronto Raptors 40/1 Washington Wizards 40/1 Utah Jazz 50/1 Oklahoma City Thunder 90/1 Memphis Grizzlies 100/1 Atlanta Hawks 200/1 Miami Heat 250/1 Chicago Bulls 300/1 Detroit Pistons 300/1 Indiana Pacers 300/1 Milwaukee Bucks 300/1 Dallas Mavericks 500/1 Denver Nuggets 500/1 Portland Blazers 550/1 Minnesota Timberwolves 1250/1 Charlotte Hornets 1500/1 New Orleans Pelicans 2500/1 New York Knicks 9999/1 Sacramento Kings 9999/1 There's a drop off after the top 3, then a big drop off between us and the Celtics at #5. Regardless of what anyone thought at the beginning of the year (including at least half of ClutchFans), the oddsmakers see this team as legitimate title contenders. Thirty teams in the league, sixteen in the playoffs, and we are a solid top-four team. This year has been the polar opposite of last year. Last season I was so disgusted with what I saw on the court that I struggled to watch the games. This year, there have been a scattered handful of disappointing games, but overall, this team is a joy to watch. Considering it's their first year under D'Antoni and Bzdelik, and the first year with Anderson/Gordon/Lou, I'd have to say the future is pretty damn bright regardless of how far we take it this year.
15 to 1 means -- 1 out of 16 chance, right? I'm not well-versed in gambling odds. So, that's the equivalent of their chances if every playoff team had an equal chance of winning the title. Is that enough for us to qualify as a serious contender?
Not quite the same. I'm not an expert on sports betting, but as I understand it, 15/1 odds mean that a bet of $1 will return you $15 if the Rockets win it all (plus your original $1, I think). So for the Warriors (1/1 odds), you'd bet a buck to win a buck. A $1 bet on the Mavs (500/1 odds) would get you $500 bucks if they win it all (Hey, Swyyguyy, bet the house!). What the new odds DO tell you is that the experts in Vegas see us as more likely to win the title than every other team except the three above us. Obviously, we're not the favorites, but it would no longer be considered a miracle for us to win. Unlikely, maybe, but not miraculous.
To be honest, the best value is San Antonio at 6/1. That's the best possible return verse investment. Rockets at 15/1 are almost equal value but less reliable.
Vegas loves the Rockets right now. Not just those odds, but on the local sports talk shows as well. They are just big news right now among the sharps in town.
I tend to agree. When I was in Vegas I threw money on the Rockets just for the hell of it at 16/1 but the Spurs odds looks pretty damn good.
Glad I took us to win when the odds were 70-1 lol. 6% chance doesn't seem like great odds, but I think Vegas is properly rating us. The Warriors and Spurs are in a higher tier, but Vegas clearly has us as the fourth best team which is a great sign
Vegas betting odds aren't biased, right? Since it's literally "put your money where you mouth is" then these predictions have to hold more merit than others, correct? I'm not a betting man so I don't know much. Can anyone post the odds to win the NBA title for the past 5 seasons from Vegas around March 20th to compare? It'd be fun to see.
I wonder what the odds were before the season started. I'm pretty sure Golden State would have had much better odds and the Rockets much worse. That variance, though.
The agents will adjust the odds if people start betting heavily on one team or less on another. For example, if a large portion of new bets started coming in on the Rockets at 15-1, they'd lower the odds--say to 10-1--to discourage so much betting on the Rockets and encourage betting on another team. The math works out that if they have bets distributed across the teams properly, Vegas doesn't lose regardless of which team wins. So Vegas will set the initial "unbiased" odds, but the bets drive the adjustments to the odds after that.
Yep. Here are the preseason odds: Golden State Warriors 3-2 Cleveland Cavaliers 5-2 San Antonio Spurs 6-1 Oklahoma City Thunder 8-1 LA Clippers 16-1 Boston Celtics 20-1 Toronto Raptors 25-1 Miami Heat 25-1 Chicago Bulls 40-1 Atlanta Hawks 40-1 Portland Trail Blazers 60-1 New Orleans Pelicans 60-1 Minnesota Timberwolves 60-1 Houston Rockets 60-1 Utah Jazz 80-1 Memphis Grizzlies 80-1 Charlotte Hornets 80-1 Milwaukee Bucks 100-1 Washington Wizards 100-1 Indiana Pacers 100-1 Detroit Pistons 100-1 New York Knicks 100-1 Denver Nuggets 100-1 Sacramento Kings 100-1 Orlando Magic 100-1 Philadelphia 76ers 100-1 Dallas Mavericks 100-1 Los Angeles Lakers 100-1 Phoenix Suns 300-1 Brooklyn Nets 500-1 LOL Thunder and Clips! T-Wolves and Pels!
And then there's this chart: The teams that have won the most games OVER their pre-season predictions:
