[Updated Draft Tracker] Who to root for from here on out...

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Most here agree that we will beat SF next week, so the SOS tiebreaker will come into play if that happens. Here's an updated total of wins and opponent wins for each team:

Texans (2-13) - 127 opponent wins (+1 for Baltimore win)
Saints (3-12) - 124 opponent wins (+1 for Chicago win)
Jets (3-12) - 125 opponent wins (+2 for a New England win, +1 for Baltimore win)
Packers (3-12) - 128 opponent wins (+1 for Minnesota win, +2 for Chicago win)
49ers (3-12) - 130 opponent wins (+1 for Chicago win)

Note: All the math done above assumes that there are no ties.

So we are rooting for Chicago, Minnesota, and NYJ to win the last 3 games of week 16.

After the Monday night game, then I'll do a run-down on who to root for so that we end up with the #1 pick even if we beat the 49ers.

EDIT: For Green Bay I mistyped "(+2 for Minnesota win, +1 for Chicago win)" and it should have been "(+1 for Minnesota win, +2 for Chicago win)".

 

I have reviewed my math and I stand by my numbers. I realize that my math may have been hard to follow, so I included explanations on each team below:

Note: I only counted wins since there have not been any ties this year and all games have been played. Thus, two teams with the same opponent win total will have the exact same SOS winning percentage.

There are 3 games remaining in week 16, and in some cases, whoever wins those matchups doesn't matter, as long as there is not a tie.

Saints: Past opponents for the Saints who have yet to play this week are Min, GB, Chi, NE, and NYJ. Since GB plays Chi, and NE plays NYJ, it really doesn't matter who wins those matchups. The Saints will get 2 wins added to their total, so their win total would be 124 (122 current opponent wins plus 2 eventual wins).
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Result: Saints (3-12) - 124 opponent wins (+1 for Chicago win)


Houston: 127 opponent wins, 128 if Baltimore wins.
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Result: Texans (2-13) - 127 opponent wins (+1 for Baltimore win)


San Fran: I added their opponents wins one more time and they currently have 130, and will have 131 if Chicago wins.
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Result: 49ers (3-12) - 130 opponent wins (+1 for Chicago win)


Jets: Agreed, 125 wins.
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Result: Jets (3-12) - 125 opponent wins (+2 for a New England win, +1 for Baltimore win)


Green Bay: This one is convoluted, but here goes. Past opponents for the Packers who have yet to play this week are Min (twice), Chi (twice), and Bal. Since Bal plays Min, we can go ahead and add 1 to their win total, but if Min wins, we will have to add 1 more. GB currently has 127 wins, but we can add 1 to that total for the time being.
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Result: Packers (3-12) - 128 opponent wins (+1 for Minnesota win, +2 for Chicago win)


Sorry if I confused anyone with my first post, I just didn't have the time to write up all the explanations.

Just to sum things up again, for the last 3 games of week 16, we are rooting for NYJ, Chicago, and Minnesota.

 

Yes, if GB wins, then we wouldn't have to worry about them, but they don't pose the greatest threat of the 3-win teams. New Orleans is the top contender assuming we beat SF for the 3rd win, they would have a 2-4 game lead on us going into week 17. The Jets are the next closest contender, but if they lose to NE, then they would be tied with us heading into week 17. Getting back to Green Bay, if they lose, then depending upon the Min/Bal outcome, they could be either 2 games behind us or 4 games behind us going into week 17.

I say root for NYJ, CHI, and MIN to win because that would give the following outcome heading into week 17:

Texans (2-13) - 127 Opponent Wins
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Saints (3-12) - 125 Opponent Wins
Packers (3-12) - 131 Opponent Wins
49ers (3-12) - 131 Opponent Wins
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NYJ (4-11) - 125 Opponent wins


I hope we can take care of business and lose to SF, but if we end up choking and win the game, we'll have to hope that all the right teams win/lose so that we can overtake that 2 game lead New Orleans has on us.

Assuming the above comes true, in week 17 we would root for NYG, GB, and DET to win, and root for PIT, SEA and IND(2) to lose.

Guarenteed Week 17 wins (assuming Texans Win and Saints lose):

CAR beats or loses to ATL = +2 to NO
CHI beats or loses to MIN = +1 to NO
MIA beats or loses to NE = +1 to NO
NYJ beats or loses to BUF = +1 to NO
TB beats NO = +2 to NO

CIN beats or loses to KC = +1 to HOU
TEN beats or loses to JAX = +2 to HOU
CLE beats or loses to BAL = +1 to HOU

Summary of Guarenteed Wins: NO +7 vs. HOU +4 = HOU +1 overall

So heading into the rest of the games, Houston would have a 1 game lead:

NYG beat OAK = +1 to NO
GB beats SEA = +1 to NO
DET beats PIT = +1 to NO

PIT beats DET = +1 to HOU
SEA beats GB = +1 to HOU
IND beats ARI = +2 to HOU
ARI beats IND = +1 to HOU

Hmmmmmmm.... With IND, SEA, and PIT all likely to win their games with or without their starters, it doesn't look like we'd be able to overtake New Orleans to get the weaker SOS. The one glimmer of hope is that if Chicago wins in week 16, then I believe TB will clinch a playoff spot, making the NO game irrelevant and opening up the door for NO to escape from Tampa with their 4th win. But overall, my take is that if we beat SF, we won't get the #1 pick.

 

Sorry about my long posts, I'm analytical, so this stuff comes naturally to me, but it isn't always the easiest thing to describe.

Here is the basic low-down: If we beat SF and NO loses, then NO will get the #1 pick almost certainly, and we will battle with NYJ for the #2 pick (assuming that NYJ still have 3 wins).

I haven't looked at the week 17 opponent matchups for NYJ, so I don't know how we'll fair against them, only to say that if they lose to NE, we will be tied with the NYJ in SOS starting in week 17.

So I'm guessing that we'll do no worse than the #3 pick at this point, but I'll do a more detailed analysis after week 16 is complete.