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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    After the trade deadline I reviewed the 5 year outlook, here are the notes/results:

    2019:
    -The current roster is likely one of the 20 most talented rosters in the history of baseball. Were this roster in place for an entire season, it would project for ~112 wins.

    2020:
    -The only roster need heading into the offseason is catcher.
    -Next year’s team will project for ~110 wins assuming they add a catcher who projects for 1.5 fWAR.
    -I can’t imagine how payroll won’t be a major issue. The 26 guys currently projected for the opening day roster project for $210M after arbitrations. And that’s with 2 near-replacement level catchers.
    -The only guy who projects to be a bad value next season is Reddick ($13M for 0.7 fWAR).
    -There is no way they can sign Gerrit Cole.

    2021:
    -The team projects for ~102 wins assuming they let Springer walk. The payroll would be ~$165M. I believe they have room to extend Springer, which would bring payroll up to near the max and raise the win total by 3-5.
    -By 2021, the team will be heavily reliant on Whitley, Tucker, and Alvarez to provide star level performance for low salaries. Altuve will begin to age, Springer will reach free agency, and the 2nd tier players (Reddick, Gurriel, Brantley, Peacock) who buoyed the roster will be gone, with not enough money or prospects to replace them on the open market. Any of those 3 young players busting could take the team from WS contender to also-ran in need of a rebuild.

    2022-2023:
    -without free agent additions (or extending Correa), this would still likely be a winning team, in the 85-90 win range with a payroll around $75M. Extending Springer, developing unexpected stars, and spending money in free agency could dramatically improve that outlook. Again, that projection relies heavily on Star-level performances by Alvarez, Whitley, and Tucker (along with Bregman and Altuve).

    For now it’s still possible to see a contending team throughout Bregman’s contract, but it assumes Crane continues to spend money and the elite prospects pan out.
     
  2. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    So, you and I both know that there is no way in hell that they don't trade Reddick this off season, right? Cole is gone no doubt after this year and I've been low key laughing at anyone who didn't realize, this, but whatever, it is what it is.

    2020 the team still looks like a rolling ball of butcher knives. Substitute in Tucker for Reddick, even if he's only league average, and you have what, one of the greatest 3 lineups (counting all the 20's/30's Yankees lineups as one lineup) of all time? With JV, Greinke, LMJ, and high delta guys with huge upside in Whitley and Sanchez, plus whoever JL randomly pulls off the scrap heap and turns into an all star for minimum wage. Yeah, that teams going to be really good.

    I think Springer gets extended this off season, honestly, I don't see anything in the payroll that would constrain that (I'm assuming he gets some sort of 4/90 or 5/110 type extension) and I see no chance of CC or Cole living past this contract. It just sets things up perfectly for 2022 with Tucker, Springer, Straw, which will totally be a badass OF both defensively and offensively and if the Springer number is $22,000,000 or so like I think it will be, then it will cost like $23,000,000.00 total for that OF. Peanuts. Alvarez needs to learn to play 1B, they use the DH as a revolving door, and then they trade for some bat in a walk year at the deadline for next to nothing so they've got 8 solid, non-catcher hitters heading into the playoffs.

    2022 LMJ, JV, Greinke and Correa are gone heading into this year (I wouldn't be surprised if they extended JV again). That's a blow, but you've got Whitley, Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman and Springer (if he re-signs as I now suspect he will) as the core of a really good team, with Pressley as the closer, and about $125,000,000 to spend to surround those guys. Honestly, that's still likely to be a WS contender, and if it isn't then you start selling guys like Alvarez, Tucker and Whitley with 3 or 4 years of club control for a shitload of prospects and start the whole thing over again, but with Altuve and Bregman and Springer around still to send the era out in style and bridge to the next WS level team that's probably right around the corner.

    But, end of the day, all you are really asking Lunow to do to keep us in the fat from now until Bregman is create, discover, draft or sign 1 quality player a year. Honestly, the way they seemingly conjure value out of thin air I really like his chances.
     
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  3. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    My guess is that with all the success they’ve had, the Astros reach across the aisle to show a guy like Springer that they know they screwed him calling him up a year late, that he’s an integral part of this team’s soul, and that they want him to be an Astros lifer. 4yrs 100M.

    The other person who really looks like he doesn’t want more than two team names on his HOF plaque is Verlander. I predict that Verlander also re-signs with us for market reasonable rates on 2yr deals going forward for the rest of his career. After his current extension expires, it’s 2 more years at 42M (can go up if he’s still showing no signs of slowing by age 38).

    Verlander, Bregman, Yordan, Springer, Altuve, Tucker, Whitley as a core keeps us competitive thru 2024-2025.
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    One thing they could do to alleviate some of the payroll crunch is to have Springer sign a lesser 1 year deal for 2020 immediately followed by an extension that doesn’t take effect until 2021. That might eliminate the need to deal Reddick, which at this point would require including a decent prospect in order to avoid having to eat money.

    The more I look at it, the more I think 2020 may be a decision point. If Whitley and Tucker both bust next season, Houston may tear it down in 2021.

    It was a bummer they didn’t get a pick for Keuchel. Hopefully that type of outcome doesn’t happen again, as the steady stream of extra picks (Cole>Springer>Correa) might go a really long way to keeping the pipeline full.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros will have Bregman, Altuve, Diaz, Alvarez, Straw in 2022 and a wade of money to spend on that year. Sure appears there will be a step back, but Astros 2022 looks better than the rest of the division.
     
  6. sealclubber1016

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    Tucker could fall off the face of the earth and my outlook on 2021 wouldn't change much in a negative way. I still fully expect him to be a good player, but not franchise altering player. Honestly all 3 would have to bust for me not to feel great about 2021, and even then we should still have enough talent to be a contender.

    Beyond that season, we really need one of the hitters and one of the pitchers to be a star. Hard to not feel great about Yordan right now, but no pitchers have shown anything. I said it before the trade deadline, Tucker is a luxury that would really help from a cost control perspective, not a necessity.
     
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  7. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    The fact that we can confidently say this team will still be at least average to above average 5 years from now is a true testament to how Luhnow and Co. have built this organization. And there’s no reason to believe that by 2024-2025 Luhnow hasn’t drafted a couple future studs or made some more great trades/free agent signings. If you get to 2025 and you’re still a very competitive team with legitimate pennant/WS aspirations then you’re talking about a ten year window that will go down in team history as the best decade of Astros baseball of all time.
     
  8. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I don’t think they have any chance of a tear down in 2021. Regardless of Whitley or Tucker being good or sucking they will still have 100 win type talent with JV, ZG and LMJ at the top of the rotation and the best infield in MLB if Alvarez can learn to play 1b, with Presley in the bullpen. That’s legitimately 8 guys who will be all stars/played at an all star level very recently. You don’t tear that team down you go out and supplement it and take your shot at the WS.
     
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  9. Major

    Major Member

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    There's zero chance the Astros do a tear-down anytime soon. Tear-downs are easy for failing teams (like the late 2000's Astros). But they won't/can't tear this down for the same reason the Giants can't - once a front office and fans have tasted success, it's just a lot harder to get anyone to accept. This team would have to have several down seasons where it's clear there's no hope before they even consider a teardown.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This is a great point. The A’s seem to have a fairly bright future but will always face major payroll constraints. None of the other teams appear to have the young talent to field a surefire division winner anytime soon. And this will likely heavily influence Houston’s spending/roster decisions; hard to justify a rebuild when you’re favored to win the division.
     
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    While I don't think Astros are close to a teardown, I'd say GMs and owners that can't face reality have caused a lot of prolonged droughts.
     
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  12. Major

    Major Member

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    Agreed - but GMs and owners want to do more than just win. They also want to be loved by their community and so they have to balance ruthless attempts at winning with building a loyal fanbase. The Marlins won multiple championships and immediately alienated everyone with their teardowns, for example. One of the penalties of winning is that you have to accept a different reality where winning is expected and you don't have quite the same flexibility you had with a "woe is me we've always sucked" fanbase. It's why a Boston or NY can't ever really do a full rebuild.
     
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    You’re probably right but my logic is that Luhnow won’t wait until things bottom out to rebuild. I think he is likely to do it a year or two earlier than people would think, because he knows he can be competitive much faster if he has some valuable assets to flip. If they get halfway thru 2021 and aren’t leading the division, they can pay down Verlander and Greinke to trade them for a haul along with McCullers, Correa, Pressly, and any other veterans they add between now and then. Add 7-8 Top 100 prospects to a core of Bregman, Tucker, Whitley, Alvarez, and Old Altuve and they can be back where they were in 2014 without having to go thru a stretch like they did in 2010-2013.
     
  14. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Luhnow came up with the Cards organization. If there was any guiding principle there it was that you don’t sell the future for the present. In the end it hasn’t resulted in a tremendous amount of championships (2) but they’ve also been competitive almost every year that I’ve been a baseball fan.

    Luhnow can do it. We’ve got Yordan now; he’s the next Pujols.
     
  15. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Cards got 2 with JL there, right? And played for another? I’d say that’s more than your fair share in baseball. Giants 3 in 5 years with a sort of shitty roster comparatively shows how much luck can be involved.
    I feel about this like I do the NCAA tournament- there’s so much random noise that I don’t judge team quality by post season results from a process perspective.

    I’m not going to **** on this organization if they win 315 games from 18-20, but don’t win a World Series. I will instead be grateful for 2017 which could have easily gone differently 6 or 7 times in that post season.
     
  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Fans didn't come to support Marlins to make payroll work. Winning brings fans in Houston and most places. Basically, there are two oversimplified types of teardowns... complete burn down knowing everything is unsalvageable or small teardowns for rebuilding on the fly. Needing to do a small teardown and ignoring just leads to either needing to do a complete teardown or treadmill of mediocrity. Owners and front offices should try to avoid complete teardowns and the treadmill of mediocrity as those two alienate the fans. Astros fans rebounded from the dark ages.
     
    #16 Joe Joe, Aug 3, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
  17. conquistador#11

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    championship, championship, championship, championship. 2023 is postponed as an outbreak wipes out the entire population.

    Why is it a given you can't sign Cole and Springer?
    Crane would just have to bite the bullet for 2 seasons. Crane can do that, He's a 2 billion dollar papi. After that, Reddick, yuli and Brantley will be gone. Greinke will be coming off the books soon too.

    After the world series, attendance skyrocketed to almost 3 million a year at 2. 98, ranking us 8th a feat that had not been seen here since the 2004-2007 seasons. That's not to mention the team revenue after the world series was 368 million, shattering every revenue record by any other owner in Astros History. Fire United airlines and bring in the big balla's EMIRATES add a little logo to the jersey, problem solved.
    [​IMG]

    Another world series championship and you can have 3x the ring giveaways.

    I think they will make a legit offer on Cole. The rest is up to Cole and Boras. I might not know what Love is but I do know that Crane is living la vida loca, Jennay.
     
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  18. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    The ONLY chance of making a legit offer to Cole is an offseason trade of Correa and Reddick. Move them together to being in some cheap talent, Tucker replaces Reddick and the money is used to sign Cole. It’s highly unlikely, but not out of the question. Signing Cole while keeping Correa and Reddick simply isn’t going to happen, not now that we have added ZG salary to the mix
     
  19. Major

    Major Member

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    Marlins never gave the fans a chance though. The 1997 Marlins had good attendance (5th in the league at 2.3 million after being around 1.7 the previous few years). They won, and then they gutted it before the next season ever started and fans never really forgave them. The 2003 Marlin also saw a rise in attendance, though not nearly as much (1.3 million vs 800k the year before). They remained competitive for a few years and their attendance went up more (1.7 million) but then failed when they sucked again.

    When I think of teardown, I think of what the Astros did - and that's what was being described here ("they can pay down Verlander and Greinke to trade them for a haul along with McCullers, Correa, Pressly, and any other veterans they add between now and then."). I think there's zero chance they do this. The "small teardown" is really just reloading but not gutting anything. I agree that good teams will do that regularly.
     
  20. rockbox

    rockbox Contributing Member

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    With Alvarez coming out of no where, I don't think there is any chance of tear down. If Tucker pans out, we are set for a long time. Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, and a resigned Springer is enough to compete for a while.
     
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