Yeah, Luhnow will only be hunting big game. We're gonna get McHugh back, and the rotation as constructed isn't having issues keeping us in games. He's had some good luck with BABIP over the last 2 years, so his ERA looks better than how good he actually is. He's basically Colin McHugh, maybe a lesser version of McHugh if you value peripherals. I pretty much echo the "just a guy" sentiment. He could help a thin rotation, but if he's one of your playoff starters you aren't in great shape.
I'm not clicking through, but I don't really like Tony Watson. He had a down year last year, and is continuing that this year (FIP, xFIP). Walking way too many guys right now. Hoping he can come out of it, but this has been a trend ever since they traded away Melancon in mid-late 2015
I'm really for any move that gets Fiers out of the rotation. And if it ends up adding Gerrit Cole, then sign me up right now.
Possibly true, but there are guys (I posted some earlier in this thread) who are good at that and would likely come cheaper since all they are is LH specialists (and some have more than this season on their contract). Watson is a closer in PIT's mind--I'd think he could command a higher return, even with his struggles.
I think a Cole deal looks similar to the White Sox's preferred deal for Quintana. Tucker, Martes and a third piece.
I'm sure they would want Perez and Luhnow would be reluctant to give him up. Think they could get it done without him.
What do you think it would take to get a deal done without Tucker. Fisher is starting to light it up. I would be willing to do a 4-1 or 5-1 trade for Cole. They could have anybody in the farm system excluding Tucker/Perez/Whitley.
If were getting Cole, Tucker will be gone...there is no reason for the Pirates to trade Cole if they're not getting a Tucker quality player in return.
Don't want to do anything at all with our offense, whether that be trading one of our hitters, or trading for one, (Majors hitters I mean.) Hopefully we can get a solid pitcher. Dallas, LMJ, and a third top notch pitcher would be insane.
My guess is that it ends up being Cole for Tucker, Martes, and a 3rd tier pitching prospect like Deetz, Armenteros, Bostick, etc. If they are able to get Cole without giving up Tucker it will be a coup.
I don't see the astros being lucky enough to pull off the trade without giving up their blue-chipper in Tucker. The Rangers got really lucky that Philly was willing to accept a package of 3 top 50 but non-top 20 players for Hamels but that's likely the exception not the rule. For Lucroy, a lesser player than Hamels with less control, they had to give up their top 20 guy (Brinson).
Considering Eickhoff had a 3.25 FIP and 2.65 ERA to start his career in 2015 (basically being as good as Hamels) after the trade and has been the better long term value so far due to health...not sure I would describe their Hamels's trade as "really lucky". I did think the Hamels trade was a fair deal between both teams. Phillies had to take back a bad contract as well to get all of the prospects. Astros will have to give up a blue chipper for a ToR pitcher. I am tired of the let's trade our top 2 prospects + an extra guy or two for whoever is the top trade target of the day regardless of years under control for the player, salary, and prospect status of top 2 prospects. I'm guessing that the prospects lists that had Tucker down their lists will have him in Top 25, like BA did in the preseason, when they update their lists. Top 25 hitting prospects on average produce almost as much as Cole has in his career so far and cost significantly less per WAR. For 2.5 years left of Cole, if Tucker is in the deal, he will be the headliner. There will be no Tucker and Martes show or a Tucker and Perez show. It will be the Tucker Show. He would have two or three opening acts like a Stubbs (well if he was hitting better), Fisher, Paulino, or Hernandez. This all falls under the premise that Tucker is viewed like historical Top 25 list hitters. Sure there is a 33% chance he is a bust with this assumption. There is also a 20% chance he's a 20+ WAR player over club controlled years. That's an Altuve range player.
A lot of people in baseball thought the Rangers were fortunate to not give up Brinson or Mazara in the deal. The Phillies seemed to be locked onto Alfaro. Eickhoff has done well but he was not a primary piece in that trade. I disagree that Tucker is enough as the meat of the deal. He's a great prospect, no doubt, but he isn't on the Moncada/Correa or even Bregman prospect level (yet). A thing I'd like to point out is that we'd be getting Cole in his physical prime (ages 26-28), which is a significant difference from the Hamels trade.
Eickhoff wasn't primary trade piece or even the second or third piece. From a luck standpoint, I would consider it incredibly unlucky to trade 3 prospects for a SP and that the SP isn't a significant upgrade over the throw in AAAA guy. Phillies ate salary in deal as Hamels made a lot more than Cole will. For Hamels to get a better guy, Phillies would have had to eat more salary (which I suspect was the case in the potential trade with Houston). Phillies just weren't turning down deals that were offering them better prospects. Granted the limited no trade clause hurt them, but it is safe to say that they didn't turn down an offer for Correa. Tucker is not Moncado. Cole is not Sale. Correa and Bregman weren't traded as Astros likely valued prospects that high too much to trade unlike Boston. Of top 2 rated prospects in last decade...here is the list of those traded: Moncado. Hitters in the Top 25 of BA's preseason Top 100 do not get traded very often. In last 4 BA prospect lists, I counted 3 Top 25 hitters that were traded. I may have missed one, so let's say 4 as I may have missed one and Torres was definitely viewed as one when he was traded. Here is the list of top 25 hitters that needed a top 25 pitcher in a trade as well: .... Of the Top 25 Hitters that were traded, another Top 50 prospect was not included except the Sale deal. Dumbrowski is infamous for his win now approach. There is not another deal comparable to the Sale deal for a decade regarding a Top 2 prospect and not a deal in last 4 years including a Top 25 hitting prospect and another Top 50 prospect. Unless Astros fire Luhnow and hire Dombrowski, weight of evidence shows that Astros are unlikely to include Tucker and another top 50 prospect for a pitcher (unless Martes continues sucking and then likely won't be considered a Top 50 prospect) with 2.5 years of club control. Archer...would be a different story as pitchers with his skill, club control are not traded.
