Again, if you read the article, you will see how the "incentive" for tanking is vastly overblown. The article also explains how few teams have won a title after tanking. Truly tanking. It explains the difference between tanking for years, tanking for one year, not actually tanking, but LUCKING into losing while having a good team, etc. It explains that while some titles won via what many assumed was tanking, wasn't the case at all. Being bad to get good is often a myth. When the team with the worst record is far from guaranteed the first pick in the draft, the system isn't near as bad as many claim.
John Wall is still young and could be a franchise player and the same could be said for Cousins. The Morey that we love so much was just dying to trade up and grab Cousins. I'll give you that 2011 was a bad draft but you left out Irving who has a real good shot at turning into a franchise player.
I don't think anyone is actually dumb enough to believe tanking increases the chances of championships. What tanking does allow you to do however, is get a higher chance of drafting a superstar potential type player ie Blake Griffin, Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Durant which will increase the chances of attracting other great players. This, under good management, has the ABILITY to increase postseason success.
Why do you want to differentiate intentional tanking and incidentally having a high pick? The facts are: 1. You need at least one superstar to win a championship. 2. The best chance of getting a superstar (especially if you are not a big market team) is through the draft. 3. The best chance of getting a superstar through the draft is drafting very high. 4. The best chance of drafting very high is either (a) being very bad, or (b) owning an unprotected pick from a team that is very bad. Pointing out teams that couldn't win after years of being bad doesn't prove that tanking doesn't give you much higher odds to win. It just tells you that (1) those teams didn't know how to build a championship team despite having high draft positions, or (2) they were very unlucky, or both. It's like pointing to all those players who went broke after their playing days to prove that playing in the NBA isn't a good way of getting rich.
The reason that so many people were pro-tank this year was that 1. It is a shortened season 2. It is one of the deepest drafts in the past decade Are you really that skeptical in Morey's ability to find a franchise player with a top five pick in one of the deepest drafts of the decade? The same guy who drafted Chandler Parsons late in the 2nd round? Also, Yao may have retired last year, but he had not played more than 10 games since the 09-10 season. The period of time that we have been in transition is not as short as you say. Finally, Daryl Morey HIMSELF believes that tanking is the best way to go about becoming a contender (see: Rockets, Spurs, Mavericks, Lakers, etc.).
The best player of the last 15 years is was not acquired by tanking. Of course i am talking about Kobe. Dirk was not acquired by tanking.
Nobody really wants to flat out lose games on purpose but yes sucking is better than mediocre. It doesn't really matter who agrees with it or not, or what argument you want to put out there. You aren't going to be a serious contender without drafting a star and building from there. That's how it's been for years, it's not changing.
I understand your point... and the "theory". However, just because it may be the best way to get a superstar doesn't mean it works "often" or even the majority of the time. If the difference in those odds isn't dramatic or large, I'd much rather attempt to win now and go about obtaining him via trade or free agency, as the Rockets have chosen to do. (I just get sick of reading the "Let's tank/suck and draft so and so..."...lol) I am basically saying two things. One, it's not as easy as many may think to A) get to the position of being able to draft a franchise player, B) have that player actually be there, C) keep the player long-term in today's league, etc. Two, the league, as in business, is ever changing. What may have been "the best way" in years past may not be the best way, or CLEARLY the best way, or only way to do something today or in the future. I disagree that you can just say "all those teams" that were fortunate enough to have high draft picks or multiple high draft picks simply don't know how to build a championship team. It's just difficult, with or without a superstar. When you are "this far in" to attempting to do it the way Les and Morey are, it is a long, long road to try to compete with bad teams for young potential superstars via the draft. We have three good examples of teams taking different approaches in the last season and a half. Charlotte started "tanking"/being bad last year. Portland blew it up this year at the deadline. We have been attempting to improve/get better/still win since Yao retired. Let's see who competes for a title first. You have teams like Denver, who chose to remain competitive after dealing Carmelo. Let's see if they contend before the Washington's, Charlotte's, New Orlean's and now Portland's. LeBron, Bosh, Granger, Josh Smith, Dwight, Melo, Amar'e, Bogut, M. Ellis, Deron Williams, Nene, P. Gasol, C. Paul, are all names that have been traded, nearly traded, left via free agency or asked for trades in the past year or so. All franchise players? No. But, likely all as good or better than anyone you'll get in the top five in this year's draft. There's more player movement in today's league BY FAR than in the past. Different time, different league. And yes, different ways to obtain a superstar. Why has Morey been so willing to "rent" a superstar? Likely because he knows he's good enough to get something good/great for him in return if the star actually chooses to take less money going the free agent route or (more likely) he realizes (and isn't afraid of) the talk of him leaving is likely not going to happen. What Bosh and LeBron did is RARE. Almost no one is going to leave nearly 30 million on the table to "play somewhere they want" - especially when Morey would make it obvious he's doing what it takes to build around the guy (not to mention the star realizing we have no state taxes...lol) While Gasol isn't a superstar, he's on the fringe. While Nene isn't one either, he was one of the most sought after free agents. If that trade isn't vetoed, after what happened with Dwight opting IN next year, what are the odds of signing/trading for Deron Williams in the off season? Especially if, as Clutch has reported, the Rockets believe he has enough interest in Houston to play/stay here. (And the whole Gasol trade happening/not happening is another argument...lol. I LOVE Luis - and what he did to the Lakers the other night. But, that is rare. He's not a closer. Gasol has proven he can be. He DEFERS to Kobe and Bynum now. The other night, with no Kobe, he had 30 and 13. NOT saying I don't like where we are now, without that trade, just making a point) Morey's been trying for what... a whole YEAR now? Year and a half? (to obtain a superstar, without Yao on the payroll). Some need to show/have a lot more patience.
If you tank and get Hakeem, Tim Duncan.... In a good draft class if you tank you can get a superstar even if you end up picking number 3 or 4
Yes, I am. Not because of Morey, but because the player simply may not be there. What was hyped as one of the best and deepest drafts in years, has been recently "downgraded" by many of the "draft experts" (whether that's right or wrong, time will tell). I won't even begin to argue the "Who has won a title strictly due to tanking". The Lakers didn't "tank" and get Kobe Bryant. The Mavericks didn't "tank" and get Dirk. Has there been one or two OBVIOUS tank jobs in NBA history to obtain someone who brought that team a title? Yes. But, the odds/chances of that paying off are long and very high. With the odds the lottery gives teams now, those days are likely over - or the odds of that happening are even lower now than they were before.
Well, I'll tell you what, fellas. We'll just see. We'll see if the Wizards, Bobcats, Kings, and now Blazers win a title before we do or let's say the Nuggets do. Times change. Everything changes. If you don't, you get left behind. Anyone who can't see the league is different now is blind. I'll enjoy my team trying to be a pioneer and win... and obtain a superstar player all the while. (and if the organization decides to blow it up, I'll support that direction too... in the meantime, I look forward to "doing it this way" and at the same time will be the FIRST to eat some crow when one of the above mentioned teams wins a title before Houston or Denver. Maybe I'm just too old and don't want to go through the LIKELY five or ten years of misery in hopes it all pays off. Maybe I enjoy the REGULAR SEASON... gasp.... wins too much. Maybe "little things" like the Blazer series win and pushing the Lakers to seven games was too enjoyable to me. No, I definitely haven't forgotten how good the championships felt - as I look up on my wall at the framed newspapers proclaiming "DREAM TEAM", "CHAMPIONS" and "HOW SWEEP IT IS"....lol. I'll take those memories to my grave - and argue with anyone who says we couldn't have beaten the Bulls! Maybe I just want to "be the first" to do it this way, as Morey claims we'd be. I don't know. Enjoy the rest of the season guys - and what I hope to be a taste of the playoffs - and some playoff success)
The Lakers traded Divac, a top 10 center during his time, for a kid out of high school. First, do we have a top 10 talent at any position to trade for any pick high enough to draft players with superstar players. Second, for every Kobe there are at least 5 busts.
your examples of mid to late lottery first round franchise players are not great. kobe was a very young guard (17 when he was drafted) that got traded around draft day to the lakers. Lakers gave up their starting center for the 13th pick. dirk was a non-post big from europe and he was the first euro to become mvp. and he was traded to the mavs (drafted at the 9th). the main point being not all lottery players are franchise players, but all franchise players come from the lottery. the only exceptions i can find are tony parker and manu ginobli, but euros werent highly valued.
The Kobe situation is no longer possible. Anybody that thinks that if Kobe went to Duke for one year he would have still ended up being the 13th pick is kidding themselves. You do know that the Mavs won 20 games the year before they got Dirk right? They then made a trade that got them both Nash and Dirk that revolved around their number 6 pick that they got from being awful. Also the Bucks who are the team that originally drafted him only won 36 games the previous year.
Guys, I didn't give Kobe and Dirk as examples. I was responding to post #25 in this thread - responding to what I assumed was the guy stating those teams listed tanked for their stars or to win titles. Please don't take my response regarding Dirk and Kobe as anything other than what I meant it as - which was simply the Mavs and Lakers didn't tank to get those two guys.
The Mavs did tank though. If winning 20 games in an 82 game season isn't tanking I don't know what is.
Drafting out of the lottery: If you look at the list below (players taken at those positions since 1980) then you'll notice that you certainly CAN draft a superstar out of the lottery. There's also quite a few good players who have survived past the craze of the lottery. [note: I'm not suggesting every player listed is a superstar - just to illustrate that historically one CAN land a superstar later in the draft, or even snag quite a handy player] Pick 15 Al Jefferson Steve Nash Rodney Stuckey Dell Curry Pick 16 Hidayet Turkoglu Ron Artest John Stockton Rodney Carney Pick 17 Roy Hibbert Danny Granger Josh Smith Jermaine O'Neal Shawn Kemp Doug Christie Pick 18 Ty Lawson JR Smith Tracy Murray (!) Mark Jackson Joe Dumars Theo Ratliff Pick 19 Rod Strickland Pick 20 Jameer Nelson Zach Randolph Zydrunas Ilgauskus Hubert Davis Larry Nance Pick 21 Rajon Rondo Ryan Anderson Brendan Haywood Boris Diaw Michael Finley Jayson Williams Ricky Davis Pick 22 Courtney Lee Chris Mills Scott Skiles Pick 23 Wilson Outlaw Tayshaun Prince AC Green Pick 24 Serge Ibaka Rudy Fernandez Kyle Lowry Andrei Kirilenko Roderick Rhodes (!) Sam Cassell Latrell Sprewell Rick Fox Arvidas Sabonis Larry Smith Terry Porter Pick 25 Marshon Brooks Nicholas Batum Al Harrington Mark Price Devin Durrant (!!) Pick 26 Kevin Martin Gerald Wallace Vlade Divac Pick 27 Dennis Rodman Elden Campbell Samuel Dalembert Pick 28 Sherman Douglas Greg Ostertag Jamaal Tinsley Pick 29 Vinny Del Negro Josh Howard Tony Parker PJ Brown Tony Kukoc Pick 30 David Lee Othella Harrington Nate McMillan
