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Turnover distribution of this team vs. championship teams

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by basketballholic, Apr 7, 2016.

  1. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    Since the 3-point era began 35 years ago, only 10 teams have won a championship with their leading playmaker committing over 20% of their total team turnovers.

    No player on a championship roster (including bigs like Shaq/Hakeem) has won a championship while committing more than 25% of his team's total turnovers except for Isaiah Thomas in 1990.

    James Harden is currently committing right at 29% of this team's total turnovers.

    [​IMG]




    In addition, here's the turnover distributions of the leading turnover players on each team this season.

    GSW Curry 21.1%
    SAS Parker 12.6%
    CLE James 22.5%
    OKC Westbrook 26.5%
    TOR Lowry 21.8%
    LAC Paul 18.7%
    ATL Teague 17.5%
    BOS Thomas 19.2%
    MIA Wade 17.4%
    CHA Batum 20.1%
    POR Lillard 20.4%
    MEM Gasol 17.2%
    IND George 22.2%
    DET Jackson 20.4%
    DAL Williams 18.1%
    UTA Hayward 16.7%

    HOU Harden 29%

    CHI Rose 15.7%
    WAS Wall 28.1%
    ORL Payton 15.0%
    MIL Giannis 16.4%
    DEN Mudiay 17.9%
    SAC Rondo 22.1%
    NYK Melo 16.3%
    NOP Tyreke 21.6%
    MIN Rubio 16.6%
    BRK Jack 19.4%
    PHX Bledsoe 20.4%
    LAL Russell 15.0%
    PHI Wroten 21.7%




    Comments?
     
  2. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Guess we won't be winning a championship this year then.
     
    1 person likes this.
  3. smoothie

    smoothie Contributing Member
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    i think this has more to do with the lack of playmakers on the team. everyone focuses on the terrible defense this season, but on offense its a 1 man show. he's being asked to do too much.

    we need more playmakers on this team, and we need a coach who has a system of getting guys easy baskets rather than relying so heavily on james.
     
  4. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    Agreed. Need more playmakers. But don't agree on the "being asked..." part. I think Harden has wanted it this way up until now.

    But.....we need at least 2 primary playmakers...and we need a guy that will actually be more creative and more efficient with his passing than Harden is. That's for sure.
     
  5. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    But, but, but, taking the ball out of Harden's hands is stupid.
     
  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    After seeing Isaiah Thomas and Magic ranking high on TOV % for their teams, and watching their post-playing careers, I think this thread means that Harden should never be a GM or host his own TV show.
     
  7. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    We need more players who can create offense (for others)? Harden has many turnovers because we need him to use so many possessions.

    Harden's Turnover ratio (Turnovers per 100 possessions) is 12.8%

    Dwight Howard's is 15.7, which is one of the highest in the NBA.

    Here are some others this year:

    Draymond Green: 14.1
    Curry 10.1

    Here are some on your list for those years:

    Parker: 9.7%
    Lebron: 9.6
    Lebron: 10.7
    Kidd: 12.2
    Kobe: 9.7

    Harden's is high, but it's not really that bad, like worse in the league bad.
     
  8. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    Disagree. Harden's turnovers are really high and really bad. Like worst in the league. I've got other data to back that up. Possession data, minute data, etc. It points to the same thing. He commits more turnovers than any other playmaker to ever win a championship. Simply too many.

    A turnover is a turnover is a turnover. It costs the team a possession. The more turnovers a player commits the more possession the team loses. The more turnovers the team commits the more possessions the team loses. They go hand-in-hand.

    The only thing that high-turnover players can do to decrease the sensitivity of their turnovers is to get the ball back defensively, to offset their turnovers. Harden has the worst turnover deficit per game by far of any playmaker to ever win a championship. It's simply too much. He doesn't offset his turnovers on the defensive end. Consequently we've got to run guys like Brewer and Ariza out there to get his turnovers back. But then you got players out there that can't dribble and make a play (Ariza/Bev) and you got a guy out there that can't shoot (Brewer). And we've got to have all 3 guys running around out there just to offset (get back) all Harden's turnovers. It's a sucking whirlpool of fail.

    TMT
     
  9. oogie boogie

    oogie boogie Member

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    ground breaking. wow.
     
  10. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Interesting Wall's high 28.5% represents the Wizards' underachieving season.

    Westbrook's high total is helped by Durant's greatness for OKC's success.


    Would be interesting to know same players' numbers last season.
     
  11. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    Really all you have to do is look at Draymond Green, Curry and Lebron who all have a 20%+ share of their team's turnovers this year

    and once you realize all 3 of those guys will probably be in the finals, this theory goes out the window.


    The core of the Rocket's problems revolve around our defense, more specifically having to cover up for Harden's subpar defensive effort with 2 wings who are defense/spot up shooters/non-playmakers. When you have wings who are incapable of creating offense for others at a high level, more of the burden rests on one player and that results in more turnovers. That same overuse results in less effort on defense. It's all a huge compounding clusterfuc*

    The worst part of this is, despite having 3 supposed "defensive-minded" players in the starting lineup, they still have a bottom of the barrel defense, which is not Harden's fault entirely.

    So yes, we need more playmakers. We need to swap some of these defense/spot up shooters for defense/playmakers. And there are probably 2-3 defensive/playmaker wings in the NBA not named Lebron or Kawhi.
     
  12. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    K. But you are just making 20 an arbitrary cut off number. There is still a large gap between 20 and 29 which is where Harden is.
     
  13. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    Right, it's the benchmark the OP used. His benchmark is not Turnover ratio, it's TOV/ Team TOV, which benefits the player on a team with multiple playmakers or people more prone to turnovers.

    You look at GSW this year. They have two guys who have roughly the same (Curry and Green).


    Now imagine if Harden gave up a half of his possessions to someone else who turns it over at the exact same rate. His number would go down by quite a lot, wouldn't it? Even though the team turns it over still, Harden isn't so high.
     
  14. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    The difference between 29% and 20% is roughly 100 turnovers.
     
    #14 basketballholic, Apr 8, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2016
  15. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    I'm not excusing Harden here for being more turnover prone than some of his peers (other superstar/playmakers.) He is. I just don't think it's the root cause of our issues.

    Every single one of those other championship guys (maybe other than Wade) have had the benefit of other elite players to take some of the offensive/playmaking load.

    Harden has nobody. And the only other guy we have (Howard) turns it over at a higher rate than Harden.
     
  16. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    BTW, also not excusing Harden for not developing his off-ball/movement game.

    That is his fault too. They brought in a playmaker this year in Lawson, and all Harden did was stand around and watch until we were sure it wouldn't work.
     
  17. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Congrats, you have shown the Rockets rely on Harden more than any other team relies on one guy.

    This is new and exciting information.

    Why don't you focus on an actual weakness of the team, like the fact that we got outrebounded by 21 last night, 15 on the offensive glass.
     
    #17 larsv8, Apr 8, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2016
  18. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos MoRley only Fan
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    If success is the metric we are using, Brooks led team w/Martin and Lowry led team w/Scola rival him currently.
     
  19. Karolik

    Karolik Member

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    thats just who he is. he wants to be the man, so let him be the man.
     
  20. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    No, he wasn't like this last year.
     
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