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Trump with a dwindling 6 point lead in Texas

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by KingCheetah, Aug 16, 2016.

  1. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Trump Leads By Only 6 in Texas

    PPP's new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, and less than half a percent (0) for Evan McMullin. In a head to head contest Trump leads Clinton 50-44 in the state, which Mitt Romney won by 16 points in 2012.

    A Democratic victory in Texas this year remains a stretch but within the numbers there are signs of Democrats being positioned to become seriously competitive there in the years ahead. Trump's lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors. With voters under 65, Clinton leads him 49-45. And when you look just specifically at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive.

    A big piece of that generational change is the increasing racial diversity of the electorate in Texas. Trump has a 69/25 lead with white voters but the reason the state's so competitive overall is that among non-white voters Clinton has a 73-21 lead, including a 68-27 edge with the state's booming Hispanic population.

    Clinton's unpopular in Texas, as you would expect, with a 36/59 favorability rating. But Trump's not a whole lot better off with only 40% of voters seeing him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion. The tax return issue continues to plague Trump with 64% of voters thinking he needs to release his returns to only 25% who don't think it's necessary for him to. Even Trump's supporters, by a 43/41 spread, think he should release them. Another issue that has the potential to cause Trump problems down the road is if he refuses to participate in the debates as scheduled. 77% of voters think he needs to do that to only 14% who don't think he needs to and among his own supporters there's an even stronger sentiment- 82/12- that Trump needs to participate. If Trump is stubborn about that it could cause the bottom to fall out on his support even further.

    We continue to find that Trump voters overwhelmingly buy into his preemptive claims about the election being rigged. Just 19% of Trump voters grant that if Clinton wins the election it will be because she got more votes, while 71% say that it will just be because the election was rigged. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN, which hasn't existed in years, will steal the election for Clinton to only 20% who don't think it will, and only 20% who are unsure. Some things Trump says are a step too far even for his support base though. We find that 'just' 35% of Trump supporters think Barack Obama founded ISIS, to 48% who don't think he's responsible for that.

    Finally we polled on Texas secession. Overall 26% of voters would support leaving the United States to 59% who want to stay, and 15% who aren't sure either way. Among Trump voters support for secession goes up to 37%, with only 49% opposed to exiting. If you look at the Presidential race in Texas only among voters who are opposed to seceding from the United State, Clinton leads Trump 54/41. But that's offset by Trump's 72/20 advantage with the secession crowd. If Clinton is elected President this fall, the Trump voters really want out- in that case 61% say they'd support seceding from the United States, to only 29% who would stick around.

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  2. jsingles

    jsingles Member

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    So 26% of the people polled are at best, mildly r****ded. Not a good sign.
     
  3. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    Lord.
     
  4. Dairy Ashford

    Dairy Ashford Member

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    I'm sorry; but this poll gives me a slightly more dubious view of researchers than low information Texans. Who in all of tarnation is still talking about ACORN.
     
  5. jo mama

    jo mama Contributing Member

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    his support is entirely based on 65 years and older white people. and unfortunately, they vote and the rest of us dont.

    the baby boomers keep f***ing it up for the rest of us.

    the fact that he is only up by 6 in freaking texas is pretty stunning and shows how bad a candidate he really is. we elected people like ted cruz, dan patrick and louie gomert...anybody with an R infront of their name should have a double-digit lead in this state.
     
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  6. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    Anyone else would have that double digit lead, Trump is easily the worst major party candidate for president in modern history.
     
  7. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    What will happen if the RNC pulls all financial support for Trump starting in October?
     
  8. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Trump supporters might rebel against the Republican Party - I seriously doubt they make that move.
     
  9. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    I've taken a very anecdotal, personal family-old-people-republican poll over the past 2 weeks: 2 people will vote Trump, 15 people will skip him (or vote Libertarian) and vote the rest of the ballot.
     
  10. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    It would be smart, pull that money and give it to those facing senate and house battles. Run away from Trump in order to salvage something and prevent total disaster.
     
  11. HamJam

    HamJam Contributing Member

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    Congratulations on the older people in your family being much less r****ded than the old republicans in my family.
     
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  12. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Will there be any left come October though?
     
  13. HillBoy

    HillBoy Contributing Member

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  14. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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  15. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    If the Trump campaign had just shrugged its shoulders at Khan's speech, I probably never would have heard about it.
     
  16. jo mama

    jo mama Contributing Member

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    and the republicans used the woman who lost her son in benghazi to score political points at their convention. the difference is that clinton was politically smart enough to realize not to attack her back. trump is just a stupid, childish baby and could not help himself.

    rick perry is proving himself to be an even more pathetic weasel than most of us already knew him to be. he called trump a "cancer", then he was making it known he wanted the VP nod and now going on tv to defend trump. what a stupid jackass.
     
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