Hello everyone. I have performed some detailed statistical analysis to determine who the winners and losers are from the blockbuster 3-way trade. The media consensus was that this was a trade where everyone won. However, my analysis renders that claim dubious. Please review the data I have compiled on each team's pre-trade and post-trade winning percentages. For your convenience, I have also taken the trouble of calculating the differences. Pre-Trade Post-Trade Difference Kings 36% 30% -6% Rockets 52% 33% -19% Knicks 36% 30% -6% As you can see, all three teams have declined somewhat. However, while the Kings and Knicks remain within the statistical margin of error, meaning their performance has not measurably changed, the Rockets decline is well outside the margin of error. In fact, they have become a worse team in a statistically provable way. Before, they were more likely than not to win a game. Now, they are likely to lose two out of every three games. This is very troubling, especially considering that we traded a young player with potential for an injury-prone player who has already peaked and is in decline.
1) rockets were already struggling hard in Jan-Feb., prior to the trade. this is more of the same 2) injuries : ariza, lowry, battier 3) it's over the long haul, time for people to develop chemistry. Rockets schemes have been described as complex and take some time to learn. This year is not time to evaluate, next year is. 4) future assets were secured. even a trade like gasol to LA, see where Memphis is today.
Agree, plus "injury-prone player who has already peaked and is in decline"????? We b%$^h and complain about not having a TRUE SG and we finally get one but now he is in decline at 27 yrs???
We lose for getting a Kevin Martin, NY's 2011 1st rnd pick*, their 2012 1st rnd pick, and their 2009 1st rnd pick Jordan Hill? Not to mention JJ, and Hilton... Have you notice Lowry and Ariza haven't been playing the last couple of games?
Add Lowry Add Ariza Add Yao Add a Lottery Pick Add the Knicks next two draftpicks in 2011 and 2012. We are going to be a team to be reckoned with for the next decade with our without Yao. With the trade, we have a direction and a purpose... Daryl Morey has this team set up perfectly. (Not to mention Jordan Hill who is going to be a excellent player in this league...)
YES. Finally someone speaking the truth. Thank you for going to all the trouble of calculating the difference.
JCDenton thread post-mortem: Clutchfans lose big! JCDenton's winning percentage in this thread= 0% (not trying to be an ass, but this is a terrible knee-jerk thread based on a tiny sample size of games that are also mitigated by many other factors that have nothing to do with the trade)
Your support is appreciated. Unfortunately some other posters are so upset by cold hard facts that they feel the need to make personal attacks instead of debating on substance.
Stupid thread. The sample size is too small to draw any such conclusions, especially when you're talking about players who don't know the system, and you bring in the several injuries the Rockets have suffered during this small window.
Alright OP, I have reviewed your solutions. Now that you have shown your answers, please show us the "detail statistical mathematical analytical calculations" that you have compiled in order to come up with that sounding answer in which you have also introduced the term, marginal error. I'm expecting something like pages of derivation of formulae, use of third degree integrations, partial differentiations, standard deviation and possibly some six sigma calculation in your large data sample. I totally admire your hard work and dedication to take your time and analyze detail data for us Rockets. If possible, please analyze, in the same way you did, the future winning %ages of the three teams for the next 5 years; this will provide us a much more trustworthy answer on whether or not this trade is a fail/pass for the teams. I'm sure you will agree to this since we, all rockets fans and staff etc, know that this trade is made for the future instead of just today. I'm not asking for too much from you because you have already done a template previously. Just input the variables of the future days into your already derived Excel sheet/Minitab/whatever program you used to analyze today's Rockets, and you'll be fine to come up with similar type of answers in a snap. PS: Also be aware that there are injuries in the teams when you did the analysis. Please include this parameter into the calculation and output a more sounding answer with injuries and team chemistry development being considered. This, then, will be a perfect answer for us to see who wins in the trade. I will wait for you, OP. Also, I'm available for help deriving stuff, so just PM me if anything. Thanks.
Cold hard facts: To make a comparison like this, you have to make sure there are no other variables that could potentially affect the data. In this case, you haven't done that. Maybe we are losing because Lowry and Ariza are out too? While we may be a worse team (right now) since the trade, these "cold hard facts" are absolutely worthless and do not prove anything either way.
Did you calculate the winning % for this season only? If so, did you include the injuries to KEY aspects of the team and why do you think Martin is in decline when he is averging around 23 points per game?
Are you mlwoo's newest trolling account? If not, please stop "calculating" these worthless stats and using them to back your well-known opinion. As has been said said already, those "stats" you presented mean absolutely nothing. No wonder people have problems viewing statistics as a integral part of basketball analysis when guys like you keep pulling "stats" like this out of their asses.
