My thoughts: 1) Toney Douglas will be a restricted free agent this summer and Daryl Morey will not bring him back. It is idiotic to pay $3-$4+ mil/year for a backup PG and Morey understands that. If you can trade him for an early to mid-second round pick, do it; otherwise, just enjoy his solid bench production the rest of the way and let him walk. He will be replaced in the rotation by either Patrick Beverly or an undervalued guard who Morey finds on the scrap heap. Don't forget where Morey found Douglas: on the scrap heap. 2) Greg Smith is cheap as hell this season, and next season, but after that, he's an unrestricted free agent. Somebody is going to think that he's a solid starting center and will give him something like four years, $25-$30 mil, believe it or not (assuming he stays healthy). Morey is not going to pay $6+ mil/year for a backup center. You cannot pay big chunks of money to backups, guys, it's a recipe for disaster. So yes, Houston should absolutely trade Smith for a first round pick if they can. I would be surprised if they're able to get a #1-#20 overall pick for him but I think that it's possible to get a #21-#30 overall pick for him. Do not underestimate this front office's PROVEN ability to find undervalued players who can be quality role players. Morey found Smith on the scrap heap, too! 3) It is bizarre to me that a team's fan base simultaneously recognizes that they do not have a quality starting power forward on the roster while maintaining that they can trade one of their current non-quality power forwards for a first round pick. But yes, the team should absolutely move Patrick Patterson, if only to create additional cap space next summer. I think you package him with either Donatas Motiejunas or Terrence Jones for a big upgrade at PF (e.g., Paul Millsap) but if that sort of move isn't in the cards, then yes, if you can flip him for a late first rounder or early second rounder, you make that trade 100 times out of 100, absolutely. 4) Marcus Morris' trade value isn't great, he's still pretty young (23 years old), he's relatively cheap... I think he's staying, at least for now. In the event that you acquire a quality starting power forward and decide to NOT exercise the $3 mil team option on Carlos Delfino this summer, Morris winds up inheriting Delfino's role/minutes. 5) Speaking of Carlos Delfino: Since you may not want to exercise that $3 mil team option next season, for reasons outlined above, then he is a guy who you absolutely trade for an early second round pick, if you can. Similar to Douglas, if all you can get is peanuts (a second round pick in the #46-#60 range is not the most valuable commodity in the world), I pretty much think that you ride it out and enjoy his quality bench production. Another option is to trade him for a team looking to dump payroll. For example, a team can trade a player who will make around $3 mil in 2013-14 for Delfino and then simply not exercise that team option on Delfino. 6) Chicago is a team that is not only looking to avoid the luxury tax in 2012-13 (this season) but in 2013-14 (next season), as well. They'd love to dump Carlos Boozer onto a team with a bunch of current cap space for nothing, but Houston isn't going to do that. However, Houston would have to think about using its current cap space somehow to absorb Luol Deng, who is not the most expensive player in the world ($13.3 mil this season, $14.3 mil next season, then he's an unrestricted free agent). I think Houston could absolutely play Chandler Parsons and Luol Deng together as your two starting forwards. It doesn't really matter who you want to call your "small forward" and your "power forward" if both players are very good players who fit your system. This trade works, I believe: Luol Deng and filler (Nate Robinson, Nazr Mohammed, Vladimir Radmanovic; all three players' contracts expire at the end of this season, Houston won't retain any of them) to Houston; Patrick Patterson, Carlos Delfino, Toney Douglas, and Cole Aldrich to Chicago. Deng replaces Morris as the starting "power forward," Morris replaces Delfino, Terrence Jones is promoted and replaces Patterson, either Robinson or Beverly replaces Douglas. Deng is about as productive as Paul Millsap but you wouldn't be committing to four years of the guy, only one (2013-14). 7) Given Chandler Parsons' insane bang-for-your-buck production, there is close to a 0% chance that he gets traded anytime soon. 8) Houston would surely dump Royce White for a worthless veteran with an expiring contract, if they can. The fact that this trade hasn't happened suggests to me that there isn't a single team in the entire league that will touch Royce White. 9) Omer Asik also provides awfully strong bang-for-your production and is likely staying, at least through the end of this season. 10) Jeremy Lin is inconsistent, but young, and relatively inexpensive, plus, he's great for P.R. purposes. And his trade value isn't great right now. I think Houston keeps him, at least through the end of this season. My recommendation for quite some time has been to use the excess cap space to squeeze a valuable asset (e.g., a first round pick) from a team looking to dodge the luxury tax (e.g., Chicago) and to package that asset somehow with Patrick Patterson and Donatas Motiejunas for Paul Millsap or perhaps some other quality starting power forward. However, using that cap space to instead trade for Deng makes more sense, as Deng is more cost-effective than Millsap (and about as good) and you don't have to give up Motiejunas, or anything that you consider a core piece. Revised 2012-13 Houston roster Starting lineup PG Jeremy Lin SG James Harden SF Chandler Parsons PF Luol Deng C Omer Asik Key reserves: Marcus Morris, Patrick Beverly, Greg Smith, Terrence Jones End of the bench (little or no playing time): Nazr Mohammed, Vladimir Radmanovic, Nate Robinson Developmental league: Donatas Motijeunas, James Anderson Suspended without pay: Royce White This offseason, you basically stand pat. You let Robinson, Mohammed, and Radmanovic walk. If you think that Motiejunas is ready to inherit the backup C role, and you are being offered a first round pick in the 16-30 range for Smith, you obviously make that trade in a heartbeat. You have all of your rotation spots filled, so there's no need to do anything dramatic in free agency. Probably you fill out the roster with 2-3 dirt-cheap/undervalued scrap heap guys (e.g., a guy like Toney Douglas) or diamonds in the rough (e.g., a guy like Greg Smith) and call it a day. Well, I think you'd still look to dump Royce White onto some sucker for nothing, just to create additional cap space and avoid the headaches.
do you think Atlanta will move Horford ...just added up the salary they have in expiring...a whopping ($43,698,411) in expiring contracts that is insane ...Ferry is GM of the year IMB cause they are 21 -15 on the season Horford for Patterson Aldrich Jones 2nd Round pick
I think that it's possible that Houston gets involved in a three-way deal where a legit title contender trades for Redick, and Houston winds up absorbing around $5 mil in expiring contracts and winds up with a first round pick, but c'mon, guys, Houston is not going to trade for J.J. Redick. Redick is a very solid veteran role player and is exactly the sort of player who a TITLE CONTENDER trades for, not a team like Houston.
Reason why I said Horford cause I'm pretty sure they want a better option at center and Horford and Asik is a great PF C combination cause we struggle to get rebounds at the 4 position Lin / Harden / Parsons / Horford / Asik - 1st unit Trade Douglas for a 2nd round pick Beverley / Morris / Smith / Jenkins
Atlanta is making a run for CP3 and Dwight, if they do go to free agency and thus I can't see them moving Horford's expiring contract. If both resign, then I can see Atlanta still holding on to Horford, playing out the rest of the season and seeing how far they go.
I like your ideas, although I think acquiring Luol Deng is iffy. Thibodeau (probably) jerks off to this guy's poster. Deng's put off wrist surgery and is nevertheless playing 40 some-odd minutes a game. He'd be perfect on the Rockets, as he also plays good help D, another reason Thibodeau would fight tooth and nail to keep him.
Just had a good idea - how about shipping Patterson for Reggie Evans? He's averaging 9 rebounds in 21 Minutes! He would help us big time, and wouldn't cost us much to sign later? Brooklyn would probably take a flyer on Pat.
Next Year Team Salary will = $42,707,823 With the Cap at 58 Million we will have $15,292,177 left in free agency to sign a major SF or just get some good role players
Horford has 4 more years on his deal at 12 million a season...do you know what you are talking about???
If they are getting that kind of production out of him, he's making something around the vet. minimum, and they are going to be a playoff team this year, why would they want to get rid of him?
Don't know if someone has posted this, but this was said from Chad Ford of ESPN in a recent chat: Source: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/46674/nba-insider-chad-ford
I think we should move Parsons to PF and trade Asik. Asik is a good player but he is not a good fit for this team. If we have a stretch 4 then we need our C to be able to screen effectively, pick and pop, and be able to roll to the basket. Asik is 0 for 3 here so he clogs up our offense since his guy will just protect the paint or double team the guard. His one on one D is also suspect since he is not very athletic. He can guard the paint against penetrating G but post up F/C eat him up alive. He is best served with teams like Miami/OKC/SA/Bos that don't require as much from the C position on offense but still need his rebounding and help defense. That would leave our biggest hole at SF. If we could work out a three way trade for Luol Deng for any combination of Asik, Douglas, PPat, Morris, Cole, draft picks, expiring contracts our line up would be: PG: Lin SG: Harden SF: Deng PF: Parsons C: Smith Deng is a great perimeter defender and he can hit the 3. This line up would improve our offense a lot as well as our D.
