It has become obvious now. The Rockets will have to rebuild unless they take advantage of another team in a major trade involving TMac or Yao. I don't think they will be able to take advantage of another team in a real lopsided trade so I believe we all should brace ourselves for the worst- it is too late. We will either rebuild in 2-3 years after more and more mediocrity which means we are farther away now from another championship than we were 5 yrs. ago (Yao's draft) This is the likely scenario. Because Les Alexander is probably too proud to recognize that it is over. He will hold on to RA and this roster and try to make adjustments. If Les Alexander did the right thing he would do everything he could to stock up on ping pong balls for the lottery and trade every asset he could for future draft picks. Of course this will cost him dearly at the ticket window and I am sure he will do everything in his power to keep the Titanic afloat. How did we get to this point? 1. He fired JVG. This is the biggest mistake he made. JVG needed a few more pieces and Morey probably would have gotten them for him. JVG was the perfect coach for Yao and TMac (I think both players know that in their heart of hearts) Whether by luck or ability Van Gundy parked Yao in the low post and ran the half court offense through him while stressing Spurs type smothering defensive intensity. This allowed Yao to improve each year and develop Yao into the same kind of low post power that Shaq had. Yao was too big,too skilled and too strong not to eventually dominate the low block. Yao is the perfect back to the basket low post scorer and JVG saw that from day 1. 2. We lost Bobby Sura to injury. Losing Sura as point guard really hurt us and we have not found a replacement. Sura gave us leadership and toughness running the team. While Rafer was OK as far as involving Yao and TMac in the half court offense- he basically only gives us a safe PG not a leader. 3. We never came up with a third scorer. Without saying it was Stromile or Rudy Gay or Novak or VSpan or Steve or Bonzi for whatever reason we needed a third scorer because of the injury issues that both TMac and Yao deal with. 4. Finally, when we were able to get some bench for the team this offseason, we lost the one coach who could take Yao and TMac to the next level and we replaced him with the one coach who would take them both back a level. It is not Adelman's fault on this, he is just the wrong coach for Yao and TMac. Yao and TMac need to play a half court game and Adelman's strength is running an offense that improvises and plays off of good PG play and shooters and passers. Adelman's offense lends itself to running more possessions, pushing the ball and a focus on the transition offense. This is something that Yao and TMac (at this point in his career) cannot do well. I know some of you will argue with this but our superstars need to be playing in a slower half court style to succeed. For all you who are blaming this season on TMac how quickly you forget that just last season TMac carried this team on his shoulders while Yao was injured and literally carried us to a home court first round playoff series. The reason we lost to Utah was simple. We had the worst match up possible for Yao. He couldn't go out and guard Okur at the 3 pt line and he couldn't guard Boozer in the paint. If we had played any other team in the West we would have advanced. We almost did anyways. Anyways the bottom line is whether you agree or think I'm an idiot. You will witness 'fate' for yourselves. This team will rebuild. It will be forced to. I will still watch the train wreck. I will hope I am proven wrong. But when it is all said and done RA will probably be fired before the Rockets reach the playoffs again. More than likely at the end of next season. If you think I am being too pessimistic, it is only because I will settle for nothing less than another championship in the Yao/TMac era. Maybe this is over reaction, but even if we somehow acquire some extra pieces and slip into the 8th seed, it would only be worse because we will not get a high enough draft pick to begin the process. This coach is wrong for Yao and TMac. This is the part that is going to kill us. Les will give RA at least one more season after this one. It will be painful.
I agree. Great post. edit: I agree with your analysis, especially your 4 points. But I don't think we are quite at the "rebuilding" stage yet.
We are only a regular season team and now that teams have caught to Yao and MacLady's go to moves. We're not a regular season team. For example, Yao is shooting 15 ft fade aways instead of taking it strong to the bucket. MacLady will not drive to save his life. We will not win a series unless we shoot lights out and we have a lot of guys who are in shooting slumps and RA rotation won't allow then to get hot.
Nice post...I'm all for trading Tmac right now...If we can get good players or equally talented player for him
You are probably right. Les & Morey will give this team and coach a chance to succeed this season and then will pull some triggers next summer. More than likely, Adelman will be back next season. Yao is off-limits so the biggest deal the Rockets would make is trading Tracy.
We have beaten Suns, Spurs, Utah, Pistons this year already. Except for the Pistons game, all very impressive. I think this group can achieve big things if everybody is on the same page. If everybody plays hard(especially Tmac plays within the team system) and we still lose, then I will agree with you.
We also lost to some of the worst teams in the league in the ugliest way possible. Memphis Miami Sacramento Philadelphia
Dalas, Phoenix, SA are all tougher matchup than Utah for us. Even golden state is hard to match up with, Yao had really hard time to play with them in the end of last season. It is still early to quit for this season as long as we could understand and use the offense system from RA before playoffs. too early to talk about rebuilt although I like any reasonable trade away T-Mac .
While I do agree with your points, I really don't believe this team is in that dire of straits. Probably the biggest reason for this month's long malaise isn't because of a lack of talent or the wrong personnel or the wrong coach...it's mainly a lack of effort. If they could play hard every night, they can beat any team in the league, regardless of whether their shots are falling or not. Plus, everybody outside of Yao has seemed to have struggled with their shots as of late...just seems like the law of averages will kick in and those shots will start to fall. Outside of lack of effort, it also comes down to the team buying into the system and trusting it and each other. They haven't done that at times...if they can this team can start to roll. But remember, this team and mainly Yao and McGrady were programmed by JVG for three years...it shouldn't be any surprise that they and the team have been a little stubborn to let past conventions go. This team could sit at .500 for 3/4 of a season then reel off 10 wins in a row after finally gelling and enjoy a deep campaign in the playoffs...it's just too damn early, still, to tell. But they do have the talent.
It's been oft mentioned that Adelman and his offense takes a lot of time to adjust (2-4 years). Unfortunately we're in a win-now mentality and we fired a coach who gave us 50+ wins. Rumors of Tracy drama is upsetting to me.
I wonder how would things have turned out had we kept JVG, completed the Artest trade, Shane for Outlaw and Jack trade (Rockets were the ones who said no, right?)... Jack-McGrady-Artest-Outlaw-Yao looks nice
You are 100% wrong, they don't need to rebuild they need to reshape, just tweak a little and get the chemistry right. Whether it is with Tmac, or by trading him and freeing Yao to be the leader without question. The team is having chemistry issues, and they are fractured, some are embracing the new regime others are holding on to the past, and that is what is causing the rift.... They are not all rowing in the same direction, if they started doing that, and putting in effort results would be immediate. But if some are not willing to tow the line (IE Tmac) he will be traded, and the team will get better with Yao as the leader and the new pieces in place. But they are NOT rebuilding, just tweaking. DD
When Les fired JVG, we were already in the rebuilding mode. There is no way that Adelman would be able to transform this group of players to execute his gameplan. The metamorphosis won't be completed until Adelman gets his own players. This process will take a few years. Until then, we have to live with a decision that Les made at the end of last season. Did Les make a hasty decision? We'll never know.
there are alot of disappointing teams this year...us, utah, chicago, denver, miami, etc but one or some of these teams are going to turn it around...why not us, why not beat chicago and then detroit (rashweed be damned) etc...we have the talent, adelman is a proven coach etc
He has to get the entire team to embrace the new way of thinking (read Tmac), if he can get through to Tracy then I believe they can take off, but if Tmac keeps moping and revolting etc...then trade him.....pronto. DD
we need a point guard who can lead the team (inside passing and outside shooting abilities). That's it. Rebuilding is not the alternative solution right now.
i agree JVG is better than RA, but i don't think this team need to rebuild don't get me wrong , i just don't think if TMC is gone and yao will be happy if not got some good pieces back, which i can't see anyone out there want to make deal with often-injury, not pass-first round TMC so the point is we need changes, but at this point, we need to fix the problem not rebuild, don't go too far, get a good shooter, a good pg, we would be fine. oh, off course, RA has to understand, yao is not the some big passing, high post guys. he is way better than then, put him on low post more and stop telling him to wait for double team come, attack if yao think he can do it.
DD- at the end of next season we will revisit this. I won't forget. Let the fruit reveal the roots. Yao needs to play in a half court system. THAT IS THE PROBLEM. (Unless you can get us a PG on the lines of Nash, Parker or Paul and guarantee a healthy McGrady this roster isn't going to fit Adelman.) DD- take off the rose colored glasses. look at the elephant in the Toyota Center at half court circle. Yao cannot dominate away from the basket and he does not have the hands and agility to make quick passes. TMac is getting older and is fragile. We don't have the shooters and passers to implement Adelman's offense. It will take us a couple years probably to build the type of roster and chemistry that he had at Sac and they didn't go to one final. Really DD, do you believe we are going to be in the finals in the next 2 yrs? How long do you think Tracy is going to hold up?
