So the season is over and it ended in spectacularly frustrating fashion as well all know. While we are all disappointed that the team lost, I don't think anyone here that was being realistic expected anything better than a potential Western Conference Finals birth. Most realized that the team was sort of gutted to get Dwight and Harden on the team. Morey had limited flexibility after adding Dwight and so was forced to miss out on guys like Mike Dunleavy and Mike Miller this offseason, instead adding stalwarts like Omri Casspi. This was always going to be a growth year that setup the future. Now here we are, entering the free agency period (whenever it comes) with flexibility. We can clear money potentially for one max guy, or we can fill out the roster with mid level players and veterans, the likes of which we have sorely needed. A lot of discussion has been had here about what Morey's strategy will be, so now I want to ask the board. Will Morey: A) Pursue a major free agent this summer for max or near max dollars at the expense of all else B) Pursue improving the overall roster by going after less than max / mid level free agents or veterans that are ring chasing (think guys like Travor Ariza, Shawn Marion, Kyle Lowry, etc.) C) Hold the cards for the next year/trade deadline to get a guy like Kevin Love What do you think will happen and what do you HOPE happens?
I think Morey will swing for the fences on draft night to try to make something big happen. Chances are he will not succeed. Then, he'll get 1-2 guys with the MLE, some smaller trades and deals to bolster the lineup. I don't think a big FA signing is possible. It would require a salary dump of Lin and Asik at precisely the time teams with cap-room don't want to waste it on guys like Lin and Asik.
I don't think this team need a 3rd star. They need someone like Kyle Korver, Dunleavey, Reddick....that type of players that you can't leave them open at all time. I am sure by now they found one in Daniels.
1. I think Morey will pursue a 3rd star, because Morey. 2. I don't think we need one. Give me a Lowry or a Millsap -- someone to shore up our weaknesses at the 1 and 4, and a serviceable 3&D guy. I think that's enough to work with/evaluate until the trade DL.
Kevin Love. I can accept another year of transition and a less than optimal lineup for a DECADE of Harden/Love plus another couple of years of Howard at this peak. After Howard's productivity declines, you invest resources into finding a suitable replacement.
Most important: 1) team play -> Which leads to better offense and more importantly defense. Where does this come from? I believe the first thing the rockets need is a better coach who can hold players accountable and run plays. 2) Better Vets, Wing/perimeter defender, starting PF (someone who can play D and maybe shoot?) I'm a bit iffy on this. If you get a third star, you could get to 2nd round playoffs I believe (but as McHale as the coach - might not happen). When you bring in a 3rd star, you have to yet again adjust to new players and a new offense. There will be growing pains. There won't be a guarantee of winning the ring, but that might happen within the next few years or at least be contend for it. The Heat were able to make it to the Finals within their first year - but the rockets are not the Heat, and their pieces are much different in terms of how their offense and defense is played. Overall, I feel if the roster got stronger to fix the weakneses, combined with great team play, the team can go far. Or maybe I'm just biased because I like the current core team and want them to stay together
Why not both? A 3rd star will lead to a strong roster overall. See: Miami Heat The Rockets biggest need is a new coach, which sadly won't come until next year.
Need that third star, but be willing to wait until 2015 FA if no one's willing to take Asik + Lin this summer
I don't understand the numbers game behind building a roster in regards to the salary cap, luxury tax, etc. Would getting a player like Lowry be possible? What about a player with the salary of Luol Deng?
Why do you think Love is going to come here? Everything I've hear indicates he wants to go to the Fakers, who will then be in a position to make him The Man and build around him. I see our chances of landing him as less than 50%, possibly much less. It seems stupid to me to hold off and waste another year of H&H on such a shaky proposition. That do you do if you can't land him then? You're screwed and you've wasted another year. That should be Plan C if we can't get Star #3 or suitable role players/vets/bench guys to make a real run. I would much rather try and land a Milsap or even a Hawes and then bring in a Lowry or Rondo type to complete the circle. Those teams would be serious contenders, no KLove necessary, and far less risk.
I'll take Option B. Let's say we can convince Atlanta to bite on an Asik for Millsap deal. Throw in a draft pick and/or one of our young PFs (Jones?) to get them to consider it. We now have a veteran PF who can defend, rebound, and stretch the floor. Is he undersized? Yes. But so was Jones. I think the next move would be enticing a veteran wingman who can not only shoot 3s but has the size to provide some defense. I don't think Garcia can cut it. Granger seems like a good option. Ariza sounds nice but I wonder if his recent spurt is due to him being in a contract year. Marion, Jefferson, and Rush could be options as well. Luol Deng would be perfect, but he'd be way too expensive. Ultimately, to replace Asik, we should definitely look into picking up Okafor. We can hope that a hometown discount, along with him having to sit out an entire season, will make him very affordable. Lin/Bev Harden/Daniels Parsons/Granger Millsap/Motiejunas Howard/Okafor Does that look like a noticeable improvement from this year? Or would this still not be enough? Or even possible?
I say go all in. Parsons and Jones are still improving and have a chance to develop even more, but its doubtful either will ever reach third star status. If they both continue on their current respective career trajectories though, a third star could be the difference between dark horse contender and perennial contender. I've always thought Houston's main advantage has been Morey's ability to find great role players, and not sign us to any contracts that really hurt. The devil has been finding the stars, not the supporting cast. Once we have our three stars, whether they compare favorably or not to other top teams three, our advantage will be a long and able supporting cast that bests theirs.
We have the full MLE to offer ($5-6m to start a multi-year deal), but doing so likely kills any cap space next year when Lin/Asik expire. But, full MLE could get pretty good players if you choose wisely. Maybe some guys who are worth more than the MLE eventually settle for a discount because cap space is spent elsewhere. So, yeah, I think it's possible.
We want to get a third star, it's clear. I think we will get that guy this offseason, who that is, is the mystery. I think we finish as a top two seed and win the west next year.
Upgrade at PG or PF. Hopefully with an All Star or at both positions with a legit NBA starter and things instantly become very good.
