The value of the Raptors pick

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by anchel, Jul 24, 2012.

  1. anchel

    anchel Member

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    Don't you see this pick as good and valuable as it's said, or it is potentially very dissapointing?
    Remember the pick is protected if the Raptors make playoffs for the next years.

    PLAYOFF TEAMS IN THE EAST LAST SEASON:

    1.-Chicago -----> Without Rose until season advanced and without Asik. Still, good signings, and considering their coach and defensive structure (and the comeback of Rose by February/March), still a playoff team?

    2.-Miami ---> playoff team

    3.-Indiana ---> playoff team

    4.-Boston ---> playoff team

    5.-Atlanta ----> Lost JJ. Get back Horford. Likely a playoff team?

    6.-Orlando ----> Losing DH, not a playoff team. Even with him at a very unconfortable situation, doubtful.

    7.-New York ---> playoff team

    8.-Philadelphia ---> have lost Brand, Lou Will, Weems; get Nick Young, Dorell Wright and Kwame. I'd say they get worse.


    Of these 8 teams, we have 4 safe playoff picks, plus 2 probable/likely spots in Chicago and Atlanta.

    Now, let's consider:


    - Brooklyn Nets: With Deron-JJ-Wallace-Lopez, for sure should be a playoff team.

    - Milwaukee: Dalembert can help at filling the hole at center after Bogut trade. Good backourt (Lamb a possible steal?), good defensive structure, maintain nucleus and coach. Definitely a contender for a playoff spot.

    - Toronto: the Raptors lost Bargnani last season just when he was playing -by far- the best basketball of his career. Also they welcome Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, and a top-10 PG in Kyle Lowry. Add an overpayed Landry Fields who is anyway a player who help you win games. They are well coached, and you can expect improvements from young players like Ed Davis or DeRozan. In my opinion, they are candidates for the most improved team for next season, as well as playoff contenders.

    - Washington Wizards: Another clear candidate for the most improved team. Not anymore a weak team inside with Nene+Okafor. Add one of the top rookies of last class, ready to contribute right now (Beal). Also to consider: Wall could explode at any moment. Don't have headcases like Blatche and McGee anymore.

    I don't give playoff chances to the rest of teams. So we have:

    - Miami, Indiana, Boston, New York, Brooklyn, as safe playoff spots. That's 5.

    Then we have:

    - Chicago, Atlanta, Philadeplhia, who as former playoff teams deserve at the least the benefit of the doubt. With Howard being traded now or at some time along the season, personally I don't give Orlando playoff hopes.

    - And finally we have Milwaukee, Toronto and Washington as non-current playoff teams contenders.

    So in TOTAL: 5 sure spots, plus 3 reachable spots for 6 more teams.


    Lowry - Calderon
    Fields - Ross
    DeRozan - Kleiza
    Bargnani - Ed Davis
    Valanciunas - Amir Johnson

    Could this roster make the playoffs and destroy the value of that pick for whatever team owns it by then?
     
  2. thisiscaketown

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    Yes, it could.
     
  3. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    It's lottery protected in our favor. If the Raptors make the playoffs the pick rolls over.
     
  4. macho87

    macho87 Member

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    If they make the.playoffs, they keep the pick until the following draft. So no, thet won't destroy the value by making the playoffs
     
  5. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN Contributing Member

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    Do you think the Raptors can make the playoffs for 3 straight years?

    If you don't then the value of the pick is great.
     
  6. withmustard

    withmustard Member

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    They are one extened injury away from giving us a great pick.
     
  7. RockFanFirst

    RockFanFirst Member

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    I'm not sure if the cast of characters around Lowry in TOR is better than the cast of characters around Lowry in HOU, and he couldn't get us to the playoffs. Granted, the west is tougher (generally) to make the cut, but I don't know if he makes them substaintally better.

    We'll just have to see how the season plays out with injuries & such. As much as he flings himself into the paint and falls down (flops), the injuries could catch up with him at some point.
     
  8. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Bargnani sucks.

    Lowry and Fields will keep them afloat though.
     
  9. anchel

    anchel Member

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    I think they don't have that bad chances. Young team that could keep being a playoff team if is able to make the playoffs this year. Also I consider the immediacy or liquidity of the pick as something valuable.


    Of course they are also one injury away from becoming a very good pick, but I don't see it something as assured as is being considered. They certainly have a good rotation and a very good coach. And I'm scared of Lowry.

    - Bargnani believe it or not really was playing GREAT last season.
     
  10. rocketseagles07

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    bargnani was averaging almost 20 ppg last year and he played very well. I think he will be the best player on the team this year...
     
  11. gah

    gah Member

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    With NY ousting Mr. Pringles and Nets becoming legit, the east doesn't look as weak on paper anymore. Toronto will have to be very well coached to make it comfortably into the playoffs, Casey's got the attitude so it's time to see what he's all about.
     
  12. rocketblaze

    rocketblaze Member

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    I don't think they're a playoff team. I have them as the 9th-11th seed range in the east.

    Also something else to consider is the difference in winning records between the borderline playoff teams in the East vs West. Border line playoff teams in the West generally have better winning record's then those in the east. Pushing the pick up in the lottery.

    Personally, I think when its all said and done, that pick will be around the 10th -12th range.
     
  13. sew

    sew Member

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    Fields is arguably their worst starter.
     
  14. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    No. I think the Raptors will be in the 5-8 range.
    Keep in mind that their no.8 spot this year was very deceptive.
    All those teams were bunched up. A couple more losses, and they get #2 instead of #8.

    I don't think they'll improve. They basically depend on:

    -Lowry fitting in very well and quickly. That's a decent bet. But Calderon is a nice offensive player. Lowry is an upgrade overall, Lowry fits their current coach better, and he adds youth.... but Lowry won't add 10 wins. A couple maybe.

    -A rookie center covering up for Bargnani defensively.
    This one won't be pretty.
    Valanciunas is not ready. He'll score some on P&R. He'll block a couple shots. But there'll be a lot of defensive mistakes, fouls, bad positioning.
    He'll have great future as a defender. But he will not be ready defensively next year.

    -T-Ross being a great defender+shot creator.
    People sometimes don't realize how atrocious is DeRozan. He has no defensive IQ. And he can't create his shot. The coach ended up using washed up vets at 3 just because they could cover some of DeRozan's mistakes.
    Does T-Ross fix that? Unlikely.

    So as I said, I think they are in the 5-8 range in the draft.

    In the East, I think the Heat, Chicago, Pacers, 76ers, Nets,Knicks, Celts, Cavs, Hawks, Wizards, Bucks and Pistons will all be better.
    All those teams either improved, or didn't downgrade enough to be worse than the Raptors.
    That's 12 teams already. Which leaves the Bobcats and Orlando. And Orlando depends on who they get/keep.

    Even if we consider injuries/chemistry issues/intentional tanking or whatever, which happens every year and kills some teams, and still I don't see the Raptors finishing higher than 10th in that conference.

    You should feel very well about that pick.
     
  15. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    Wouldn't it be funny if the Raptors pick ends up being a #14 pick next year?

    Ok, not funny as in "haha funny" but funny as in "clutchfans.net crashes with too many angry posts funny."
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    Fields won't be their starter (I'd expect?). DeRozan/T-Ross will.

    If Fields is the starter, it means their coach (Casey) got green light to sit down DeRozan.

    It makes sense from basketball perspective, tbh (smart>high jumping for Casey's defense), but I doubt they'd go ahead and give up on DeRozan like that.
     
  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    You are a good poster, but Bargnani really wasn't any better last year. He scored 20 points a game but he took a lot of shots, did not go to the line often, rebounded poorly and defended poorly.
     
  18. TexAg713

    TexAg713 Member

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    The best outcome of this pick is for the Raptors to make the playoffs for a few years then fail miserably when the top-3/2/1 protections wear off and win the lottery. Until that time, you should root for the Raptors to make the playoffs, because I have a feeling they won't be that terrible. The last thing we want is for Toronto to barely miss the playoffs and end up with a 13th or 14th pick in the draft. That is, unless we ship the pick off Orlando because then we could care less.

    I wonder how Houston projects what Dallas' standing will be come 2018 when their pick becomes fully unprotected. I don't see them returning to top-10 in the standings for some time, so in all likelihood it will be deferred for some time. Dirk will be long gone by then and they'll be a few years into their rebuild. Would be awesome if they were to hit rock bottom that year.
     
  19. sew

    sew Member

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    True, I was basing that off of the OP's projected starting line-up.
     
  20. DAROckets

    DAROckets Contributing Member

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    Young team with new and unproven pieces and will have growing pains.It will take time to develop chemistry,if they even do.Sure an injury could drop them,but you can't use that in evaluating a pick.

    I'm gonna say anywhere from 8-14 with most likely 10-12.

    So early thoughts are that this is a weak draft .. I guess it all depends on how well your team is at evaluating talent,value may not really be known for a few years.

    I do think many here have over value this pick.Niece piece in an overall package but when looked at alone,not so much
     

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