THE YOUNGSTERS Montrezl Harrell 23 Chinanu Onuaku 20 Isaiah Taylor 22 Troy Williams 22 Kyle Wiltjer 24 Sam Dekker 23 Clint Capela 23 I think Clint and Sam have shown they are at least good Role Players on a Good team I think Troy can be groomed into an Ariza Replacement (Him and Dekker sharing time at the spot) Trez needs to work on some parts of his game . .. mainly his jumper Onuaku is raw but I think he can come along with the proper teaching and coaching The others I am not 100% on and need to see more from them Clint maybe the only DEAL BREAKER among them right now but . . . . What are their ceilings? Instead of constantly looking outside for talent .. . . let's evaluate what we have here Rocket River
other than trades, im not sure if a single one of them isnt worth keeping for next season nanu's a traditional big. might not need him with capela getting bigger and better and nene resigning, and mr 20m per 9ppg po's ryan anderson taylor a scoring pg. good insurance for eg and bev wiltjer a defenseless shooting specialist. if anything he'll be like novak we know what they other 3 bring. i highly doubt we go into next season w/o a decfent 2nd option so i expect a big trade. both these 3 guys are worth it to keep for another year. rookies usually take a year in this system. next season will be their year.
Montrezz - solid scoring bench big, starter on bad team Onuaku - nothing special at all, maybe a backup C if lucky Taylor - nothing special, 3rd string PG Troy Williams - end of rotation player, backup at best Wiltjer - bench warmer, get minutes on a terrible team like the Suns or Lakers Sam Dekker - low usage 5th option if his jumper can improve Capela - solid starting C
Consider that CC would have been a rookie this year, if he had gone to college. Now, reflect on what he's done already. This Swiss rolled from the French League all the way to impacting the WCF. This year, WE were rolling until he broke his leg...The guy comes back on the quickstep, in time to be a MUCH bigger force in this postseason. He has the Legendary Rocket Big Man Factory (including CD & Dream) behind him. Lateral quickness/explosiveness/good instincts...Dude's on his way to being a GREAT defensive player... a top 10 center for many years...has the work ethic, talent, and heart. He had Dwight's help when he was younger, but now he's been out on that island..and really thrived at times.I'd guess we'll see him log more minutes this year...even with the presence of Nene. CC's Cambyesque (minus some polish on O) now, but I believe he has the potential for much more. I have a feeling CC's gonna be a Rocket lifer...continuing to exceed our expectations, big time.
I'm really high on Dekker too. Not like CC. but way beyond most folks. The ability to get the to the hoop and finish is impressive. But, it's his outside shot that I see getting stronger and stronger, opening up the rest of his game...He can be a scorer in this League....especially with all the silver platter jobs from James. And he's also lost time due to injury.. a lot. The discipline and commitment/professionalism that it takes to come back ...I'm pretty sure there's real nice upside here.
Upside ? Like max upside ? I'll give some ranges . The thing about our prospects , is that the ones that are interesting ( to me ) have the physical tools and need to develop skills. This is a difficult thing to project . Dekker. Max upside top 10 SF . He's got the size , he's got the athleticism ( esp considering the size ) he's got some good BBIQ ( moves off-ball well) if he can develop a consistent jumper and significantly improve his Handle then he's a potential top 50 player and solid 3rd option . When you count positional versatility then I think the best case scenario is valid. Average projection ( fills some but not all of his upside ) ... A worse Trevor Ariza . His whole upside revolves around how good his jumper gets and how much he can tighten his handle . Low end - out of the league hahaha ... It's like that for most on this list Harrel Max upside - draymond without the passing ( though trez did have several nice touch passes this year) ... I don't think his handle will ever improve to draymond level . But his rebounding and defense could . He's got the tools . On offense his shot could stand improvement , but I think a solid midrange jumper a la scola isn't out of the question . Average - a much much shittier Farried . Purely an energy guy / backup big . Kinda what he is now but slightly better . If his skills don't improve much he won't improve much. He can definitely at least become a better rebounder and defender in this scenario but not as much as he could . Low end - out of the league . If he never improves from here he's not going to produce as much when not paired in a space and pace with James ... That's any centers dream. Clinty High end - top 10 center . For this to happen he needs to add about 10-20 lbs over a few seasons while maintaining or improving upon his quickness . His speed is going to play up in a league that's trending to small ball . Aka he could shut down the rim and be quick enough to switch out to the perimeter. Offensive game needs to grow . The other top 10 centers either have a skill advantage or a size advantage . He's not going to make up the height difference therefore he needs to add skill . A 15 footer (for pick and pop) , a couple of post moves, and improved passing ability should do the trick. I'm not sure Clints max upside is as high as Dekker or Harrell's but he has a better chance of fulfilling more of his (IMO) potential. Average - slightly below average starting C ... Basically where he is now . James is making him look really good .. And while I love his growth on the defensive end , it's currently not enough to make up for his offensive limitations . Low end - he should be fine here , I don't think he will get any worse than he is unless he gets hurt or something. However , his offensive shortcomings will be exposed if he gets moved to another team without as good of a PnR player ( probably 25 + teams) Those are the guys I wanted to talk about . It's too early on nanu ( though I think he has the most potential of the rest) and I'm pretty low on wheelchair or Williams ever becoming anything of note. I think that for the first trio, the chances they become solid NBA players ( are consistently in a team's rotation) is very high . And I think down the road Sam and montrezl have a 40/50 percent chance of developing into average starters. All three have a 15/20 percent chance of becoming top 1/3 players at their respective positions or around top 50-60 players . I think all 3 have a slim ~5% chance of becoming all-star caliber or top 30 level players .
If Rudy Gay is willing to take a pay cut to be a winner I think we can get Gay to cover some of the offense Ariza lacks. Also he can play stretch 4. Also I'd look for some PF depth in a guy like Mo Speights another big who can stretch the floor was money on golden state 2 years ago. 2017-2018 Rockets Roster Capela/Nene Anderson/Speights Ariza/Gay/Dekker Bev/Gordon/Lou Harden
We barely saw Troy Williams on the floor this year, but whenever he did play, he seemed pretty good. I think he needs more time, but if he can hone his defense, I can see him being a player in the mold of Trevor Ariza. Three and D. Great thread, OP.
FWIW 538's Carmelo is very high on Onuaku, sees him as a "great prospect" with a much higher ceiling than Capela. I personally don't see it but always found it interesting. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/chinanu-onuaku/
Troy Williams intrigues me but I need to see more of him He has a decent size build I think if he can be a consistent scorer - He plays some small SF or SG Rocket River
He reminds me a little bit of Demare Carroll, in that when he was a Rocket I thought to myself, that guy doesn't look like an NBA player...but I was super wrong about Carroll, so hopefully I'm long about Troy Williams. The problem with guys like that is sometimes they don't really figure it out until their second or third contract.
Montrezl Harrell 23 - at best a bench energy role player. Chinanu Onuaku 20 - potential starting PF, or C, but more than likely a role player off the bench. Isaiah Taylor 22 - out of the league in a couple of years. Troy Williams 22 - Will be a valuable SF/SG - bench player - possible starter Kyle Wiltjer 24 - Steve Novak type - will last for years as a 3pt specialist. Sam Dekker 23 - Rotation player possible starter at SF. Clint Capela 23 - Starting Center, possible all star in a few years DD
Capela has made it already, he'll likely be a solid starting C for the next decade. I don't know how much more he has to improve talent wise but I think he can become a lot more solid and refine himself. He can gain more cut muscle to defend bigger centers better, he can work on his stamina, he can work on his hook shots, he can learn the game better, play smarter, learn better positioning on D. So he can get better at the little things, during his peak he should be very good. Dekker/Williams and Harrell will make or break completely depending on their 3pt jumpers. If they can't develop reliable 3pt jumpers, none will belong on this team IMO. I can't see any of them becoming more then they are right now without shots (fringe rotation players), Dekker/Williams hurts our spacing at the 3/4, and Harrell kills us on boards and D with his lack of size at center. If any of them DO develop 3pt shots, then they become starting material players with their athleticism and motors. Don't know what to think about IT, haven't seen enough of him, hasn't stood out. Wiltjer looks like Anderson 2.0, basically a 6'10 stiff who can't do a damn thing except shoot. I honestly would have loved to had seen him thrown in the fire as a Anderson replacement when Anderson was injured last season, I wonder if we would have saw a difference. My guess is he doesn't perform well in practice, or else he should have gotten some burn. Onuaku looks like he'll be a 3rd stringer / out of the league. He looks too slow, didn't rebound or defend well enough.
Wiltjer HAS to put on some weight . . . . He needs to More Muscle. He needs to be able to Bang a little . . he is 6'10 I think 20~30 more pounds . . . They suspect it will make him slower but he is a turtle now Rocket River
